Episode Transcript
Speaker 1 00:00:08 And welcome back to another edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast. I am your host Colby Conway at Colby, R Conway on Twitter and after the big races yesterday, and it's some scheduling complex. Um, the sales man is not here for the podcast today, but fortunately we have James Grande stepping in. So James, how is everything going for you this week?
Speaker 2 00:00:31 Um, everything's going pretty well, uh, happy Monday to all at the time of this recording and, uh, looking forward to another pod. Thanks again, Colby for having me and shout out to cells. Uh, still making contributions here, Colby to the pod because cells will be editing this. So even when he is not here, um, Matt's impact is, is still I imprinted on this pod.
Speaker 1 00:00:54 Absolutely. He is. He is. He's definitely in the mix still, even if he's not in the seat here. So, um, of course go follow. Matt sells at the sales man on Twitter. Give James follow as well at the underscore reel underscore Grande on Twitter. But of course, a week of action has passed since the last time that we all have spoke here and been behind the glass behind these microphones. We gotta take some of the news here and kind of delve into the fantasy impacts of each. Uh, we're gonna start with the first one, Walker Bueller elbow injury, and they thought they avoided a scare and it turns out that they quite didn't. So Bueller's gonna be on the shelf for a little bit here. So kind of talk about the fantasy impacts of Bueller's, uh, elbow slash forearm injury here, James.
Speaker 2 00:01:36 I mean, it's a massive impact and it's not that he had been pitching well, I think we're all aware of that. He's not living up to his first, second round, you know, draft, um, status of this year. Um, unfortunately you just can't, you just don't find a replacement for guys like this. You can patch it together and there will be plenty of arms along the way, but when you draft someone such as Walker, Bueller, there is no clear cut replacement. This is when you need to start figuring things out. Do you have an extra bat that you can put on the market to acquire, you know, a top fledge starter or are you gonna go more of a streaming route? There's no particular replacement, right? Like that just doesn't exist unless you, you know, find last year's ranger, sus who pitched to a sub to E a as a starter.
Speaker 2 00:02:29 That is very rare. Um, so I think you need to start exploring different, different avenues, different routes because when you, again, you lose someone who is predicted or, or expected to be your ACE in, in your rotation for three months, you need to think outta the box. So I would start hitting up managers around the league. If you are a Walker Buler owner, um, looking for, you know, top fledge arms, if you have, you know, enough hitting and also on the flip side of that go to the Walker, Buer owners, um, and try to force their hands too. Um, you need pitching, well, I want whoever right, uh, of, of higher status offensively. So you can look at it both ways. There's no easy way to replace a Walker Buer, but I think, um, you know, attack the trade market
Speaker 1 00:03:21 And obviously in dynasty and keeper formats, this injury hopefully is just, you know, a small, a small bump in the road. But for those in redraft, I mean, they said the team's expecting to be without him for about three months. Let's just say, they're exactly correct. We're talking June 13th, we're now into the middle of September in redraft format. You basically need a perfect recovery just to get anything from him, the rest of the way. So most likely if your lead doesn't have many IL spots or you just need the spot that bad, I, I can't believe we're saying this, but I, I think you're almost gonna have to drop Walker Bueller.
Speaker 2 00:03:53 Yeah. And you know who his manager is. So even when he does return, I mean, how, the way that the cautiousness that Dave Robertson company are gonna take with Walker Buler is gonna be insane. Think about how cautious they've been with Julio UIA to start this year and he's not coming off an injury. So, um, I'm, I'm in full agreement, Colby, I think the 20, 22 fantasies season for Walker, Bueller and redraft is over.
Speaker 1 00:04:20 And it's interesting cuz you mentioned Dave Roberts being quite conservative. And now this has actually just led me into a perfect segue into the next thing, but should everything go correct with Bueller's, you know, recovery and everything goes well, we've seen the boss and red Sox toiled this idea around cause they want to get the guy back sooner. Um, this is more so about Chris sale, but perhaps when, when Walker Buer returns, maybe they use him in a long relief role or maybe out of the bullpen, just try to get 'em back on the mound sooner as it's. I think it's pretty fair to say that the Dodgers have, you know, world series aspirations here, but right. Boston could be looking to get Chris sail back on the mound. They just need anybody on that mound. At this point they need, they need some help. So sale comes back as a reliever perhaps to start, is that for fantasy other than the fact that one of the games more dominant lefthanded pitcher who's always seems to be injured back on the Mount. It's a net positive, but at what point with Chris sale is do fantasy baseball managers essentially just need him to be starting so that they can actually finally get that return on investment. They thought they were gonna get closer to the start of the year.
Speaker 2 00:05:18 I mean, I guess it depends on what Boston views him as when he is put in the bullpen. Is, is that official, I guess he confirmed like when he goes to the bullpen, is that confirmed a long man? Or is he gonna pitch in short STTs? I mean the Yankees did it with Louis Severino as well, like short stints and he was the late inning guy. Like could Chris sail become a late inning guy for a red Sox bullpen that could probably use the, the help. And if Chris sail, what if Chris sale starts getting holds and saves Colby, then what are we talking about?
Speaker 1 00:05:53 Well, I was just, yeah, I was just gonna pose this to you out there. Say at this point right now, Tanner Hawk has two saves who ends the year with more saves how or sale
Speaker 2 00:06:02 If Chris sale is placed in the bullpen, I'm gonna go Chris Josh hater sale with more saves. Is this not? This is Josh hater. Like 2.0, well I guess Chris sale is like the original Josh hater, but as a starter, right? Like it's just like the, the herky jerky stuff. And I think Chris sale ends with more safes.
Speaker 1 00:06:27 How about that? Let's let's say this. So in obviously like in a say league, like the like TG F FBI, you don't have IL spots and anything like that. Chris sale is out there on the, in free agency and you need saves badly. Are we talking a hundred percent of the fab for Josh? Hiter 2.0,
Speaker 2 00:06:50 Uh, I don't know about a hundred, but I would give up a large chunk. It would be, I mean
Speaker 1 00:06:56 99. That
Speaker 2 00:06:57 Sounds good. Yeah. 90, 99. Yes. There would be a, it would like lead with a nine. Uh, first number would be a nine and then, uh, whatever percent, whatever number you want to put as a number two, you, you could that's your decision.
Speaker 1 00:07:09 Yep. I, it would be, it would be interesting. Just imagine, imagine Chris sale nine. That's all I'm gonna say. And you're holding on him. I mean, you're probably hoping he comes back a starter, but if Boston, it seems like Boston can do whatever it takes to get him on the mound sooner. And a, you know, three to six out role might be kind of where Chris sale begins the year there. So we'll set to see what happens with him, but make sure you keep that fab budget saved for closer Chris sale. Chris Josh hater sale. Excuse me. <laugh> um, the new, the potential new Boston closer. Um, so back to some injury news, San Fran, Alex Cobb, Jacob jus to the IL and TG FBI. My pitching staff is decimated by injuries. I have so many little bolded red IL fifteens with all these guys and jus just became the most recent one. So, uh, James, what are your thoughts here with Alex Cobb and Jacob Junis? I know neither of them are exactly world beaters for fantasy on the mound, but I mean, Hey, they got innings and they're pretty much better than anybody on the waiver wire right now.
Speaker 2 00:08:05 Yeah. I mean they also pitch in a very friendly ballpark, so it's tough to, uh, to lose them. I do think Cobb, you know, Cobb has pitched better than his era. I mean his expected fit is 2 37, his F on the years, 2 63, his expected era 2 0 6 Colby, 5 73 era for Alex Cobb. Um, he's been incredible in the strikeout department too by far, uh, the increased velocity has been helped out helping out obviously over 4% better than his career best, which is last year in terms of strikeouts. Um, so that's a tough loss. I think the jus thing and I, you know, I'm sorry, cuz you just mentioned you have him on a team. Um, I, I think he's poised for, uh, regression anyway. I mean, you know, the strikeouts are down from a year ago, the era is a run almost a run and a half lower than the expected era.
Speaker 2 00:09:04 Um, the only thing saving him really, he's been really good at inducing ground balls. Um, and he pitches in a really friendly park. So like definitely something somewhat of a loss. I do think there's regression, um, post return of the injury. Um, but there's no reason to drop either of them. Um, at this point I think placing 'em on your IL is a perfectly good move and then if they stink when they come back. So be it, I think cob is due for some positive regression while jus is uh, probably likely headed the other way.
Speaker 1 00:09:35 And Alex, Cobb's a guy at home he's he's, he's like the right-handed Carlos Rodan. You look this year at home rod, Don's got a 14.1 K per nine at home and Cobb's at a 12.6, never in a million years that I think would those two be that close, but as a glorious pitchers park to pitching and I love what those giants pitchers at home, most of them are quite good there. So yeah, I'm hoping jus comes back. I know he is not a massive strikeout arm, but when you, uh, had a couple weeks where you had to run IL guys out there, cause you had no other pitching options, it's just nice to have someone who gets innings agreed at this point. So have to see how they do there. But moving away from the mound go behind the dish to Cincinnati. Tyler Stevenson has hit the IL. He was a very, very popular, uh, catcher for pre-season draft rankings at a good home park. And well one figure the reds. Wouldn't gonna be like the worst team in baseball. Um, and there's enough offense there, but Tyler Stevenson is now out. Those, those in two catcher formats are probably scrambling mm-hmm <affirmative> so that they kind of give you a two for one here, the Tyler Stevenson injury. And then is there any interest, any interest, excuse me in, uh, Gabriel, Marino's call up for Toronto.
Speaker 2 00:10:41 So the latter is a definite I mean hard not to like kind of be giddy about a top 10 prospect in baseball, getting the call in the best lineup in baseball, as of right. I mean, at least over the last one month, the blue Jays have been just hitting everything. So it's like, you know, Danny Janssen on the IL, like this is Marino's time to, he's gonna get plenty of pitches to hit, uh, with everyone else hitting. Um, and like the Stevenson injury obviously hurts. I mean he was a two 80 hitter last year. He's hit 300 this year. It's not someone I would drop, but I, I actually think you're right. Like the, the correlation between Stevenson and, and Reno is pretty good. Like if he lost Stevenson, I would put a little bit of, you know, a healthy amount of fab on Moreno considering his bat tools and um, his prospect ranking.
Speaker 2 00:11:34 And even if he doesn't stick like Stevenson's injury, isn't expected to be incredibly serious. Um, so by the time Janssen returns and maybe Moreno sent back down, I mean, you could have, you could be getting Stevenson back relatively soon after that. So, um, tough blow, but place him on your IL cuz he is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. Uh, and even though his team stinks still has that ballpark to always lean, you know, always fall back on uh, great American once again, top two and runs scored per game. So, uh, good correlation pickup. Uh, if you lost Stevenson is Gabriel Marino.
Speaker 1 00:12:16 Yeah. There's enough. There's enough juice there. And I mean, you got, like you said, it's a great lineup to be a part of without like naming, you know, some of the best ones, you know, you got Santiago Espinol rein Topia Alejandro who's apparently now the new Ty cob in terms of yep. For average, there's a couple other guys in that lineup. Oh, like kaon BI, there's just, there's a lot to, lot to like
Speaker 2 00:12:36 BTI Lorelle too. Like
Speaker 1 00:12:39 Yeah. Oh Matt Chapman prime time, third base for there two 16 average on the year. So there's some other bums in that lineup, but those are the main ones that we really focus on there. So yeah, it's just offensive. Production is hard to come by at catcher. Catcher's almost getting to the point of like a relief pitcher where if a, if relief pitcher throws the ninth inning, once they're gonna be a fab pickup matter, what? And if like any catcher just hits a ball relatively hard, it's like, oh, that's gonna be my second catcher. <laugh> that's what I, that's what, that's what this fantasy baseball team needs to take it to. The top is just, uh, another catcher there. So yeah, don't worry about the early production with a guy like Marino. We've seen it with Adley Rushman like, there's no chance he's this bad.
Speaker 1 00:13:16 Like, I mean, he is, he's gonna be a stud. So I wouldn't be worried about too much. And like I said, when you're in line with RH Metopia and Kon VI, you're gonna produce such as how it's gonna be. Um, back to the mound, uh, Andrew kit Richards back to the IL as someone who invested quite heavily, um, in the back end of that pen with the, I call 'em call him Porsche because he had one save and that just made me all excited when I picked them up. Um, <laugh> so talk about the Kittridge I L industry and no or injury and no matter what Tampa was not going to lock down one night in guy, there's gonna be multiple in there. So this seems destined for it was already a closer by committee to an extent, but it just now seems like the injury to, or the new injury to Kittridge is just gonna double down on the closer by committee in Tampa.
Speaker 2 00:13:56 Oh yeah. This is just so much, it just made it so much worse. Um, so much worse. I mean, poche has been their best reliever, but you know, doesn't really strike a lot of guys out. Probably walks a few too many guys as well. Um, Brooks rally has probably been the better in terms of your ratios. He's been a higher strikeout, um, per nine, 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Um, but he's obviously been hit harder than poche has or what, what was the, what was the name you called them?
Speaker 1 00:14:30 He's uh, he's like a Porsche, but it's fast fun, but if you're, you're not careful, it's gonna end up real bad
Speaker 2 00:14:35 <laugh> um, so like I would probably prioritize, uh, Brooks rally a little bit more than, um, Porsche, but you know, nothing wrong with having a Porsche either.
Speaker 1 00:14:48 Yeah. Until it, you know, just
Speaker 2 00:14:50 Crashes until it breaks down. Right, right. Yeah. But like while you have it, it's fun. Like while you, I, well, I, all, I imagine you have it. I don't personally have one. Um, so I don't actually know what it's like to have one, but I can imagine it's fun for while, while it lasts, you know?
Speaker 1 00:15:05 Yeah. And it's something too where again, like I, I mentioned the TG, FBI is the industry league that, um, I'm in, are you in that one, James?
Speaker 2 00:15:12 Yes, I am doing terribly, but that's my own fault.
Speaker 1 00:15:15 <laugh> so like, I mean, I had added, uh, Mr. Porsche poche in the weekend of June 5th. I was the only one to bid on him and bid $203 on him because I needed ninth inning help so bad. Um, so yeah, you know, when you look at some of these bids here, like that week, I dropped over 300 bids and no one even bid it on the people that I was going for. So I don't know that either means I'm out of a loop or I'm way
Speaker 2 00:15:40 Ahead of things. Well, desperation. I mean, if you're look, if you're desperate, Tampa bay is still floating 500, there are a team that has been historically good. They're gonna win a lot of games. They're still, you know, they're what, 10 games over 500. Sorry. So there's going to be save opportunities. Unfortunately we don't know who's gonna be in the ninth inning, but there will be opportunities for all of them, especially with Kittridge down who was leading the team and save. So if you do have, um, poche like, it's, you're going to get the opportunities. If you do have Brooks rally, you, he will get the opportunities. If you know Matt Whistler and Jason, Adam, um, all continue to pitch well, like maybe they'll get opportunities, but I think poche and Raleigh lead the charge. And I do think, um, if you are desperate for relief, relief, help and saves, I it's, obviously those are two guys that will be available in almost all formats and are worth taking a shot on.
Speaker 1 00:16:43 And then we did get some encouraging news regarding Jack FLA. There's a lot of issues. A guy who's had, some arm issues comes into the year behind schedule. He's just in rehab outings. Now he did come out and say that he feels good. And it's the best that he's felt since 20 19, 20 19 was the year he posted today. He only went 11 and eight, but K per nine, up over 10 at 2.7, five era fit in the mid threes. Um, and such in the, uh, the manager said that he looks good. So it's tough given that he's basically, it's now June and he's about ready to make his debut in about a week or so. I, he forgets another rehab start. So it's one of those to me. And I'll see if you feel the same way. If he's out there on the IL or out in the waiver wire and you need pitching, you can pick him up. I just, you've got to be realistic with what is going to happen with him. He's had a little bit of a, a, uh, he's a slower start to the year he's been banged up. He's he's damn good when on the mound and healthy, but that's a pretty big win. And how healthy does he come back? So I think you have to take a shot on FLA, but maybe you gotta be careful on who you drop too, because there's still a lot of risk with him coming back at this point.
Speaker 2 00:17:54 Yeah. I think it's FLA is your DFS GPP play for the rest of the year. It's he's made 20 something starts over the last two years, um, since 2019. And over that time, like the strikeouts were down, home runs were up, you know, and we, we know about the potential and, and he's a very good pitcher, but like you said, like let's temper expectations unless you desperately need help. And if you desperately need help, then take the shot on the guy. But if you're in a, in a very good position on the mound, I completely agree. Don't go ahead and drop someone, um, who you think is gonna regress and for clarity, who might just break down in two months or, um, not even, you know, really fulfill the role that you thought he was gonna pitch in now three start three innings in his first, uh, start in double a four innings in his triple a start.
Speaker 2 00:18:53 And he is gonna make another start on Wednesday. Right? Is that yeah, Wednesday. So we'll see if, I mean, if he could be back full capacity soon, right next week almost if he, if he throws a, if he gets through his Wednesday rehab start and everything's good and he throws five plus innings, um, I'm pretty confident he's gonna be close to full strength. I, I, but I guess my only concern is back to the Dave Roberts line of thinking. And, um, with all these managers, like don't rush him back and, and force another injury. I would definitely have interest in clarity if I need pitching help, like you said. Um, but I'm not going outta my way. Really. I'm just copying exactly what you said. Just Elong getting the, the conversation more than I should, but yeah, I'm in on clarity if I need pitching. And if I don't tough not to go after 'em right. Given the upside, but, um, that's sometimes why we fade people in Jupp and, and, uh, come out victorious
Speaker 1 00:19:54 Sounds like on underdog and price picks and clarity season debut, we're gonna lean towards the under on the Hangouts just seems correct. It seems quite fair. Maybe goes over in the strikeouts kind of like a straw for esque outing when he returns with strikeouts are good and everything else is a little me to say the least. So have to see what happens there. We did get some, well, I don't wanna say bad news where I was still unsure yet, but, um, Michael Kopec left his start after just two batters made five, all of five pitches. Um, the team said it's right. Knee discomfort. You know, there's a lot of times where people like in you see it in like the NFL, it's like, oh, it's like discomfort. Well, they slammed their helmet on the field. They were rolling the right pain. I think we're talking a little more than discomfort.
Speaker 1 00:20:35 And Kopec about killed the ground with probably what was about a 92 mile an hour spike of that baseball as he was walking off. So I'm going to take that into a little bit more consideration than perhaps a team with, you know, throwing out the general buzzwords, soreness, discomfort, slight aggravation, stuff like that. That tends to not really be, you know, sure. There could be discomfort, but that could, because there's, you know, something torn inside or something right. Is all messed, you know, messed up or ripped to shred. So, uh, we don't really know much about the co injury, but it seems like barring anything crazy. We're at least gonna get an IL in. It seems like for the right hander.
Speaker 2 00:21:14 Yeah. And it's definitely wait and see for now definitely place on IL and don't outright drop him cuz he is been awesome. And it does look like there was some expected regression just based on the numbers. Um, the strikeout rate is obviously not what it was out of the bullpen, but again, that's just what happens when starters or when relievers become starters and vice versa. Um, yeah, it's just a wait and see. And hopefully like you said, there is nothing else. Um, it doesn't seem like there just suddenly discomfort after five pitchers, but um, we'll see, it's wait and see, don't drop him, hold onto him. Uh you'll you're likely gonna be able to place him on the IL scene.
Speaker 1 00:21:53 And then with Nate Aldi going to the IEL, so kind of talk to me about the injury there and about, about how long was it gonna be till his luck rundown. Cause that's not many times that someone post a, you know, a Babi that is about 30 points below their career mark with a home run per nine above two yet continue to be a low three era's pitcher when the F xFi and everything, or the ex expected era and the F all indicate that regression was in store for E Aldi. So talk about the IL trip and about how many more starts do we have of this ACE, like E Aldi before we get to the, you know, more normal
Speaker 2 00:22:29 <laugh>, I mean, 15 day injured list with the lower back. So, um, and that he was placed on Sunday, no retro action or retro activation. So, uh, we will see him at the end of, so July we'll likely see him in July. Um, I mean, I'm with you. I, it doesn't help that he, you know, pitches in Boston and it's gonna only get worse from here. Right. It's only gonna get closer to a hundred than it is like 70 and sixties. Uh, so the temperature's only gonna rise in Boston. The ball's only gonna fly out of, uh, Fenway even more. Um, I, I agree. I do like the strikeouts, like this is where the hell was this when he was pitching for the Yankees. I mean, the guy figured it out, at least in, in some, uh, parts of his game. But yeah, the, the it's weird too.
Speaker 2 00:23:21 Like he doesn't have this crazy fly ball rate. He, you know, is typically a ground ball pitcher. I mean, for his career, a 46% ground ball pitcher for a guy of 46% ground ball rate to be giving up this many home runs is definitely concerning. Um, but that's what happens when you throw a dead straight, fast ball and allow a 40% hit hard hit rate this year. I mean, the, the luck is gonna run out as you mentioned Colby, but maybe you take this time to field some offers, Hey, I know he's only gonna be out for the minimum 15 days, or he's only gonna, he's gonna be back in July at some point, look at the strikeouts, look at how well he's pitched, look at all the run production he has, um, in Boston. So maybe this is a good opportunity to, to field some offers for Alder or, you know, place him on the end. And as, as we learn and get updates on him, um, you know, as the closer we are to the return field, some offers cuz you're not all right dropping the guy, not even with the, the uptick in, uh, home runs and such and, and likely regression. But, um, I think I would float him out there as a guy that I'm looking to trade because as you mentioned, it's, it's, we're, we're, it's probably going, uh, downhill from here
Speaker 1 00:24:40 And that's not a good division to be in, in terms of when, you know, regression is forthcoming. That's not the division you want to be in, but I mean, it could be worse. He could be in the N L central with the pirates, but anyway, um, not sure if you happen to see this with obviously you saw that Joe Madden gotten fired. Um, but, um, did see a rather interesting report that to try to rejuvenate the team and avoid a losing streak. Um, the ageless Joe Madden went into a Mohawk, uh, got, got himself, a new air do with the Mohawk to show the team, just to get can that day and for no one to see it. So that's kind of, that's tough.
Speaker 1 00:25:17 That's tough. But yes, that is very tough. Hey, I, listen, you know, you saw like movie major league with people doing weird stuff to break out of slumps. A former Yankees player would wear a golden thong to try to break out of it. <laugh> you hear of all these cool things? I don't know if we've ever heard anything quite like a manager who's, you know, not exactly young go for the Mohawk just to show it and not even get to take his hat off too. Show it. Part of me wonders if, if the team was like, we're just sick of this losing streak, Madden walks in and goes, Hey, check this out, takes his hat off and they just go, you're done.
Speaker 2 00:25:48 Like, you're touch.
Speaker 1 00:25:50 <laugh> get out. This is ridiculous.
Speaker 2 00:25:52 I wouldn't doubt it. I wouldn't doubt it at all. Um, that's what, but yeah, poor guy. We need
Speaker 1 00:25:56 To know that is what we need to know. Did, did he get fired pre removal of the hat or post removal of the hat? That's that's the, that's the, that's the, the journalism reporting that we need today,
Speaker 2 00:26:06 They should have asked. They should have asked, uh, I don't know what the full scope of the cause I didn't watch the angels ESPN Sunday night game. Um, but they had trout on the mic and trout talked about the fantasy football league and who won mm-hmm <affirmative> but he didn't, I don't know if they asked him anything about Madden, uh, that would've been, I mean, talk about just back to back hammers of questions who won the, the greatest fantasy football league ever. And then did you guys see Joe Madden's or did the, who saw Joe Madden's ma uh, Mohawk that would've been the best reporting ever live on television?
Speaker 1 00:26:46 It'd be really interesting to see if maybe, well, if Joe Madden can do that, maybe he'll take over, uh, Tommy fam or Jock's spot in the fantasy <laugh>, uh, football league. We'll have to see with the, with the raging Mohawks, that'd be a great team name for, uh, for Joe mad, but very interesting. My guess is that the firing came pre removal, which then he had to go home. I can only imagine that like, oh, how'd the haircut go? Huh? Well, <laugh> it, it, we gotta deal with it now. Cause it's gonna take a little bit for this hair to grow back. So we'll have to see what goes on there, but, um, quick question about Matt. Do you think he gets another job in major league baseball as a head coach
Speaker 2 00:27:22 Said he wants to. So, uh, with the, you know, coaching carousel, just always on the move I do, and I know he is older, but, um, I, I think he'll maybe get one more opportunity
Speaker 1 00:27:35 And he's gotta probably to be the skip. He's probably got to reassure that team's front office that he's, maybe he's gonna do it a little bit different, this new age of baseball or something like that. It's gotta, it's gotta be something like that.
Speaker 2 00:27:47 Yep. For sure.
Speaker 1 00:27:47 Um, cool. Let's go ahead and talk about a little buy sell. So the first we're gonna look at Detroit's starter, Alex, I'm gonna say FAO FA do I'm like I'm like FA do, because what he's doing so far this year has been really quite exceptional. He's in rather rare company. When you look at what he's done. So I'm pulling up here what I wrote in one of the, uh, one of the weekly updates, but basically he's got a nice little streak going in terms of how he's done. I bid over $200 on him in fab because I so desperately needed tipping. <laugh> you're see, you're seeing the trend here, right? Yep. This team's very good offensively and just very not, um, on the mound, but looking what the tiger said, he has tossed at least five innings and allowed no more than two runs in all seven of his big league games. And this was a couple days ago as I wrote this and just the third pitcher, um, to do that. So FA two has been quite impressive and he is doing quite well for a team that he has no help behind him offensively. So are you buying or selling the early season production here for the Detroit righthander
Speaker 2 00:28:50 I mean, when you look at like everything on the surface, it looks pretty good. Um, I will say he's made seven starts. I, I can't really, and I, I probably shouldn't be saying this to you cuz he's faced the pirates twice. I can't really pick out one lineup that he's faced that has really is really scary at all. He's faced Pittsburgh twice, um, Cleveland, twice who we know has been Dr. Jackal and Mr. Hyde from the start of the year. Um, Tampa Bay's offense has been a shell of what they've been in years past, um, Oakland, once and Minnesota. So I don't feel like we're even getting the best really look at 'em because he is yes. Facing major league offenses, but he is not striking them out at a very high clip. I know he had seven strikeouts in his last start. Um, but Pittsburgh has struck out a lot this year.
Speaker 2 00:29:46 I don't, I think it's a, it's a very close one for me. I would probably sell he's a 26 year old who has not had much. There's nothing really on him. You know, he's only pitched one game prior to his call up above double a, uh, and um, I think when the, the tape is out, I mean his, his era 2 92 is expected to be 4 65, I think, uh, when he starts facing better offenses, it's gonna be tough for him to continue. So I'm gonna be selling Alex Fado, uh, which is, I just looked made to make sure that was the correct pronunciation. Um, I am selling Alex Fado, it's close. Uh, but I think, you know, as the summer wears on and he's starting to face better opponents, I think he's gonna struggle a little bit.
Speaker 1 00:30:41 It'd be pretty bad of me to say, to sell him after I just spent $200 in fab on him. But, um, Fado is a guy that I, I do like and what really got me going was that he held Byron bucks in just a ground out a walking, a single that's impressive because that's a, that's a perennial MVP can fair top of top of guy for every fancy team that I have. So, um, however you wanna say it, Fado Fido is doing quite well, but I understand, I understand some of the concerns with him, but like I said, when you just paid $200 for him in fab, it's kind of bad for you just to turn around and say, yeah, I'm gonna sell him day after I paid up for him before you paid another start. So totally get it there. Uh, we have, you know, we talked about that Toronto offense earlier and Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bache, and Teka Hernandez all have the luxury of hitting in a lineup, not only now with Gabriel Marino, but also with Santiago. Espinol, who's been really nice. I've enjoyed using him in DFS at times to exploit some of his matchups. Are you buying or selling what Espinol has been doing and really boosting that Toronto lineup, not even who you cares about Guerrero and Hernandez and all those guys, it's all about Espinol
Speaker 2 00:31:45 Right. Bo knows. Bo knows who the best player in this lineup is. Right? Colby it's Santiago Espinol. I mean, um, I mean, I think he it's another fringe type of player. I mean, he has been incredibly good, uh, lately and he's sitting 3 78 in June. He has more home runs in June and we're on the 13th of the month than he had in March, April and may combined. Uh, he has three home runs this month, two in those three months, two months plus a couple days, uh, combined. So like, I don't think it's sustainable. And by that, I mean, it's not sustainable. Like, uh, he has an 1100 ops. He has a 2 89 ISO, um, 4 68 WOBA in June. Now the hard hit stuff, the, all his metrics and, um, his stack cast stuff has been real all year long. He hits everything hard. Um, he barrels a lot of baseballs. 38% hard hit rate is, um, pretty incredible. I just, yeah, you like the multi-position eligibility. I just like hits in a good line up, right? Like everything is there, but he's never been a power guy in the minors. Um, he's a moderately good, okay. Stolen base guy. Um, I'm, I'm probably selling this version of Santiago Espanol because I just don't think what he's doing in June is sustainable over the course of the full year.
Speaker 1 00:33:20 And he's not far off a lot of his expected metrics, which kind of makes it almost you're you were almost hoping like, oh, there's no way a 3 33 expected batting average when he is only hitting 2 88 or vice versa, something like that, that would indicate some sort of regression was near. That just doesn't seem to be the case with him. To me Espinol is gonna be a guide who's gonna, he's going to play every day, which is good. Yep. But he is going to need it. He's almost that like, like an accumulator type in fantasy mm-hmm <affirmative> with all the, at bats, the home runs stolen bases. All those numbers were, will follow. He himself is never going to win you like a week if you play in weekly leagues or dominate any particular category. So if someone's willing to offer something of value, cuz like you said, they're buying this version the best ol I'm fine with moving it. If no one's gonna take them, I wouldn't sell 'em cheap because you can at least live with the average and run, score this lineup and maybe he hits another binge here or there
Speaker 2 00:34:11 Hundred percent agree. I think, I think that's the, I think that's the perfect way to phrase, uh, San Espinol and the shares that you have, um, moving forward.
Speaker 1 00:34:21 Yeah. And like if you, if you play on N NFPC you can look at it like biweekly. You're just gonna see a lot of, oh, we hit 2 95 week with one home run and one stolen base over time that adds up. You just never notice it on a weekly basis. So he is of the accumulator variety and the last buyer saw guy, we have 31 year old Christian Walker in Arizona. He is got 15 home runs. The power is reminiscent of that really otherwise outlying 2019 year. He does have some hefty splits to say the least, but outside of batting average, the strikeouts are at least down a little bit. So that's exciting. One would think the average has got to come around a little bit as expected. Batting average is damn near 2 75 and he's 2 0 7 lot of hard contact like ESP, but also are we buying or selling Christian Walker? Graphers I'm buying, but let's say you
Speaker 2 00:35:10 I'm 100% buying. I think you nailed it. Look at all of his expected numbers and just, just speaks to how unlucky he's been still considering he's at 15 home runs 1 97 bait Colby, 1 97 balls, uh, batting average on balls in play 1 97. Um, expected batting average, as you said, uh, 2 75 expected WBA 4 0 6. I mean everything suggests Christian Walker should be having a much better year for a guy who has 15 home runs has scored 27 runs has 31 ribs. Like the counting stats are pretty good. Um, he only has eight. He has 15 home runs and 18 singles. You just gotta wonder how many more hits he'd have, you know, if he's just getting a, get a little more, uh, lucky. Um, so I'm buying Christian Walker. I think this lineup suits him well, he's I think the ballpark suits him well. Um, so I, I do like the power from Christian Walker in Arizona.
Speaker 2 00:36:15 Um, crushing lefthanded pitching this year over a 400. Well I love Christian Walker. Um, and I love the opportunity to buy because I don't, he's not gonna cost you a lot. I think a lot of people look at Christian Walker like, oh, he's just another power guy that you can find on the waiver wire. Well, if things start turning around for him in all, all around at the dish, I think we could be looking at a guy who's driving in a lot of runs similar to what he drove in in, in 2019. I mean he's on a better home run pace than he was in 2019 as well.
Speaker 1 00:36:48 Yeah. And right now, I mean, if you can buy him great, go ahead and get him other than that, just right now. I mean the batting average has been there against lefties, but the power more so against righties, but first career, I mean he's mashed righties. I mean hitting 2 45 but 51 bombs. Yep. 51 of his 67 career home runs are against righties. So take that for what you will, but now James, wanna get your ideas here in terms of thought or level of concern for a couple of players. So I'm going to start here with hinge REU of the blue Jays. He's been injured now for a little bit. So it's not necessarily the news itself, um, that he is injured is the reason, but more so a quote that came out basically about it. So obviously REU is on the IL and I wrote this in the daily Roundup couple days ago, which you should be checking those out daily on fantasy lauren.com, but Toronto blue Jays at general manager, Ross Atkins about hinge REU said that the team is quote optimistic that there is nothing terribly significant, but there are chronic changes within that left elbow.
Speaker 1 00:37:48 So that is a lot that's that like, that's kind of like the, you know, tell me a lot without saying a lot and you know, optimistic, there is nothing terribly significant. So for me, my concern is at a nine he's even stumped before he was hurt. So my level of concern just in general is high for you. What about you?
Speaker 2 00:38:06 I mean, it has to be, what, what does that even mean? What does that even mean? I mean, they're clearly concerned. That's just a quote that like you're getting out there. Um, because you're concerned like clearly concerned makes me clearly concerned. Um, at very high, I mean he's 35 years old too. Hasn't looked great. Didn't look great. Last year, didn't look great. And it starts this year, um, concerned for you moving forward this year and beyond just considering age and, and recent forms since, you know, honestly leaving the Dodgers. So, uh, very, very concerned. I, I don't have a number, but the number is as close to high as it can get.
Speaker 1 00:38:50 Absolutely. And then the last one we got here is Yoon, Monta hitting a very cool and by very cool. I mean, very, very cool. 1 32 on the year with a 3 86 ops that Santiago Espanol can only laugh at at this point in the year with how good he's been. But Manca was a guy just back in 2019, he had three 15 and outside of that, it was some okay. Batting average in 2021 is almost looked like he is been like an every other year guy, but it seems to me that that 2019 season is now to a distant memory. And what we've gotten lately is really what he's gonna be. Okay. Power. He's not, he's done running, don't ever hope for stolen bases with him anymore. So my level of concern with Mankas at about a 7.382. And where do you come in with your level of concern with Mondo?
Speaker 2 00:39:38 Uh, few less decimal points than that, but a higher number. I would say like he is in, I'm in, if you're an owner full blown panic mode. Um, and if you're an owner, I think it's time to not be an owner anymore. I think it's full on 8.2. Get rid of him shed the weight. He's providing nothing, no steels, no power, no average, not even walking 4% K or walk rate, uh, after a, a guy who's put up 12 plus percent, two straight years, the K rates back up, uh, full blown panic mode, drop him in all formats,
Speaker 2 00:40:20 Even if he shows like a little life. I mean, I just can't see him, uh, ever getting back to what he was in that 2019 season. I think, uh, the, I, I don't wanna say that his good days are behind him. He's literally 27, like he's in his prime. Um, but there's no signs of life right now. And, and uh, the expected numbers don't suggest any type of positive regression. Um, so I don't think there's really anything to hear. I think, uh, Manata is a, is a Ghana Manata is a Ghana. I didn't really Ryan, but I, I tried it. Okay. Just know I tried,
Speaker 1 00:40:58 I know Apple's new iOS feature does allow you to like copy text from like images and stuff. If we could just copy what you had said, basically your selling point of he's only 27. You know, that's what I would be starting every potential trade offer. If you have man kata to sell him to sell in your league, Hey, he's only 27. That 2019 season is only three years ago. He's still 27. Like you gotta, you got, you're gonna have to sell it. We're gonna have to, you know, bust out the old sales mentality to get someone to take him off your hands. So, but I agree. Monta is a Ghana in the words of, at the underscore real unders Grande on Twitter. So there, there you have it, but we gotta wrap it up here for the prediction for the week. That lies ahead last week. Uh, you said two wins for John Gray. I believe he got the one yesterday.
Speaker 2 00:41:41 Yeah. Sucked in his, he sucked against Cleveland.
Speaker 1 00:41:44 Yeah. And then Matt said Ali Rushman to get his first home run. I said, Edward Cabrera put up, uh, the document says 20 plus strikeouts, but I think I said five plus I just,
Speaker 2 00:41:53 Yeah, actually I remember you. Yeah. I remember you saying five.
Speaker 1 00:41:55 Yeah. There's I know there's edit history and Google docs, but we just don't need to look there. It's fine. Basically. I was right. That's the end of the story, but uh, this week's predict prediction, James, I'll go ahead and let you go first
Speaker 2 00:42:06 Colby. Sorry to be doing this to you, but, uh, your Pittsburgh pirates have, um, the highest strike I rate against lefthand pitching over the last two weeks. That's fair and uh, very good. They actually have the third highest strike I rate this year against lefthand pitching near 25%. So we're gonna head over to the St. Louis Cardinals, uh, two, their 2019 first round draft pick in Zach Thompson will be making his first major league start on Monday Colby. Uh, Zach Thompson. I'm going bold here. Okay. This isn't a, this is, I think Zach Thompson first off should be picked up immediately. If he's available, if you wanna stream him, that's fine. Um, big strikeout guy, uh, Zach Thompson eight plus Ks against your Pittsburgh pirates tonight. Um, 74 pitches in his, in his debut outta the pen, uh, looked really good. Only had three strikeouts. Uh, it's gonna be different against the pirates here. I'm going eight strikeouts for Zach Thompson and his, uh, in his starting debut for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Speaker 1 00:43:12 Yeah, I mean, that's cute, but Pittsburgh has the better Zach Thompson. So just keep that in mind. I mean, four, five, the era and the year seven K I guess, I guess my new bold prediction is that Pittsburgh, Zach Thompson will do better than the St. Louis, Zach Thompson and their start here, but I'll, that'll be my bold, bold prediction for the week. Uh, I'll go a little bit more conservative this week. Christopher Morel continues his hot start for the Cubs and has at least two or more home runs this week. And two or more stolen bases. Don't have to be in the same game just for the week in general. So that was really the week that was in, uh, baseball major league baseball, fantasy baseball here, we wrap it up here all in the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast. Make sure you follow me on Twitter at Colby R Conway, follow James at the underscore real unders tour Grande on Twitter.
Speaker 1 00:43:59 Make sure even though he is not here, give Matt sells a follow. Let him know you missed him. Can't wait to have him back next week at the sales man on Twitter and just make sure checking out all the content at fantasy alarm DFS alarm, whether you're daily, your player props, you want underdog and price pick seasonal. All of that is covered there. So we'll be back probably about a week or so from the day to break down all that was in the upcoming week of baseball in the next edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast, we will see you next week.
