Speaker 1 00:00:08 And welcome back for another edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast. I am your host Colby Conway at Colby, R Conway on Twitter. And back in the saddle here with me this week, we're back in the dugout, whatever you wanna call it. Matt sells at the sales man on Twitter. So Matt, glad to have you back, James and I were joking last week that you might not have been on Mike with us, but it's not as if you weren't involved in, in that you are still the, the master editor of the entire, of this entire operation. So glad to have you back. How are things going for you?
Speaker 2 00:00:41 Things are good. Yeah. We had a schedule snafu last week. Uh, couldn't join you unfortunately. And we have a scheduled snafu for James this week. So, um, you know, we just keep rotating people and pretty soon we're gonna be like a six man rotation here. We're just gonna <laugh> we're just gonna keep rotating folks in. Um, so I'm good. It was a little bit of a refreshing off week there for NASCAR. So I am fully rested up for the, you know, rest of the baseball season and the rest of the NASCAR season.
Speaker 1 00:01:11 Absolutely. And that's always good to hear that you're rested to get to do, you know, dive into all that content. I'm sure there's a lot of teams, especially major league baseball that are probably looking forward to this time in July, where get a couple of days off, get some rest and teams across the league. If they're not losing players to the IL, they are eagerly anticipating some returns. But before, before we talk about some of the guys that are gonna come back, uh, do a little shameless plug, make you're checking out all the content and fantasy alarm, whether it's fantasy baseball, if you're into the daily stuff, uh, been crushing it there of late. So make sure you're checking out all of that content there. So let's get the bad news out of the way. First, Matt, let's talk about a couple notable players heading to the IL.
Speaker 1 00:01:51 I was gonna start with one of your, one of your local boys home to your team there first, but I won't do that to you. So I'll, I'll do it. We'll do him a second. Uh, we'll get there, but first Moy bets heading to the injured list with a cracked rib. He's gonna miss some time, obviously that's a blow for fantasy baseball managers and the Dodgers alike. Um, so Moy, bet's gonna be outta the lineup for a little bit. We're we're within that timeframe now, where if certain things occur, teams might start, you know, looking at other teams, maybe for some potential trade targets. Uh, but obviously the Dodgers are literally not afraid to do anything. They will do whatever it takes to win. So talk about the Moy bets injury, and you don't need to go too deep into a prediction, but are you, do you see like an in-house replacement or do you see the Dodgers kind of looking around the league for some outfield help?
Speaker 2 00:02:37 Um, yeah, so crack drugs are tough, right? Cause there's not really anything you can do about it. You just kind of gotta let it heal. Um, and then at that point it's about pain management. So I'm going to guess he's probably gonna be on the shorter end of an IL stint here, um, in terms of how they fill the whole, well, they've got some flexibility on their roster as it stands. Um, and the fact that the pitchers are now capped at only 13 on the active roster means that they basically get a free call up, um, when they have to swap out, you know, send some pitchers down, but still have 26 guys on the active roster. Um, so there's a few in-house candidates that they could that they could call up. I don't know that it's time for a trade just yet. Um, I think they'll, they'll make due, obviously Moy bets is a huge be in that lineup, but you know, for about a week and a half, I think they can make due with, with some in-house, uh, call ups or, you know, they heck they could just pull a, nobody to have a bench pat up there while they give playing time to, you know, a guy like Chris Taylor, um, get some playing time out there and, and, and whatnot.
Speaker 1 00:03:55 Yep, absolutely. It'll be, I think the Dodgers are really gonna tell us we're they're not gonna, we're not gonna get a very clear time table here early on. But I would say if you see the Dodgers start kicking tires around the league, that bet's injury is gonna be a little bit longer than maybe they anticipated front, but I could see them going with a bench bat for now. It's not like they don't have depth. And honestly, yes, Moy bets is a league changing talent. They have so many guys in that life, but there's gonna be any team that can bear a stud for a couple weeks without 'em in the lineup, to an extent it's, it would have to be, it would have to be the Los Angeles
Speaker 2 00:04:29 Diving. Yeah. I mean, I'd be more concerned with their pitching staff than their offense.
Speaker 1 00:04:34 Yep. They are banged up in the fan. It's it's, it's almost interesting that, you know, a lot of times we, we, we give a lot of crap to the Dodger about these Phantom IEL stents, and now they're actually having legit IIN. So, you know, mm-hmm, <affirmative> feel for them a little bit there, but pitchers on the IL is something that New York Mets fans and Matt sells, you know, too much, unfortunately about. So we've been waiting. There is a lot of talk, especially like in our fantasy alarm discord channel, what to do with Steven sch Rossberg what to do with Steven Strasberg. Uh, I have been stashing him. Am I ready to go? Do I leave him on IL for one start? Well, what a start it was. And I'm gonna emphasize the one, what a one start. It was, the strikeouts were fine. Overall numbers might not have been great, but he heads back to the IL after experiencing some discomfort in a bullpen following that start. So if you think the ooky bets timeline for, or return timetable is cloudy, I don't even know what you want to think of the Strausberg one, because given what he had went through and now he just came back enough to do one start and now he's back on the shelf. What do the nationals do with their rotation and what, at this point, fantasy baseball managers in draft or redraft formats, he's probably a drop at this point, right?
Speaker 2 00:05:47 Uh, yeah, I would assume so. Uh, I personally, have you seen exactly what the results of the MRI
Speaker 1 00:05:54 Were? Not to my knowledge yet more so was just discomfort. It didn't feel right. You know, all those things. Yeah. Don't have any results back. It's just, yeah. It's one of those situations right now. It seems.
Speaker 2 00:06:06 Yeah. Okay. I, I was just double checking that I hadn't missed anything cuz I hadn't seen anything other than discomfort and he was going for an MRI. Um, so I'm guessing we hope that no news is good news there. That it was just discomfort from getting back on the mound.
Speaker 1 00:06:20 Oh, actually found an update quick per this article that I'm
[email protected] basically saying unprompted Dave Martinez kind of answer talked about the question, a stress reaction and the second and third ribs on the right side of his body. And they do believe it's connected to the surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome that he underwent the summer before.
Speaker 2 00:06:39 Well, that's not great. What was the date on that article?
Speaker 1 00:06:42 Looks like June 14th.
Speaker 2 00:06:44 Oh dang. Okay. So apologies for missing that one there. Um, yeah, that's not good. Uh, stress reaction in the scapula is what has kept Jacob Drom out, uh, for quite a while. A stress reaction in the humorous is what has kept Trevor many out for a while. Um, now we just got done talking about crack ribs for ooky bets. Um, this doesn't sound great because with a stress reaction, you have to let it heal before you do anything. Because if you don't, it's just gonna, it's like a crack in your windshield, right. If you don't seal it back up or replace the windshield, it's just gonna keep spreading. That's the same thing with a stress reaction. So yeah, he's, droppable at this point. Um, and I think any good bats that are on the NA's offense right now are gonna be moved at the trade deadline. Josh bell is a key one for that. I think they're gonna move him. Uh, unfortunately I'd like them to res resign him, but they will make the argument. If they res resign Josh bell, they won't somehow have the money to also re-sign Juan Soto. So I will take Juan Soto over Josh bell. <laugh> um,
Speaker 1 00:07:53 Yeah. And I mean, that makes sense. And of course we just get, we stopped talking about the Dodger, just got a report here. Uh, gimme one word on this that the Dodgers are close to acquiring trace Thompson who has an ops north of 1000 in AAA thus far. So they get their bench bat, but they also went out to get said bench bats. Wasn't he
Speaker 2 00:08:14 One word previously with the wasn't he previously with the Dodgers,
Speaker 1 00:08:19 It rings a bell. He was most recently with, uh, he was in triple a, in Detroit. So first off, just take that
Speaker 2 00:08:26 For right. He was with the white Sox for a time. I'm pretty sure he was with the Dodgers for a time. Um, certainly not as accomplished as his brother clay. Um, you know, who's coming off of winning another championship. Um, but yeah, I mean it's a bench bat, right? He's got zero value
Speaker 1 00:08:45 To me. Yep, absolutely. And he was BA he was with the ti the, the tigers he was with the tigers. Correct. But he was also with the Dodgers, uh, back in 2016 and 27 team. Um, another IL Anthony Rendon done for the year. He had stunk for the most part this year. So I mean, now the angels kind of lose their three-headed monster and bats of trout Otani and Rendon, but one can make the case that the real three-headed monster was trout Otani and Taylor ward. That's awesome. Rendon's out for the year. Anything to make of that, other than he's obviously drivable and redraft formats.
Speaker 2 00:09:15 No, I just feel bad for angels fans of the knock in to see the prime Rendon cuz as a NATS fan, he was really good for us for six or seven years. Um, clearly the key to winning the 2019 world series when he got hot at the right time. Um, it's just a shame to be honest, that, that, you know, they go and get a good defensive and great bet at third base and he can't stay healthy. So it, it just is just disappointing at this point.
Speaker 1 00:09:47 Yep. And then another injury at that. Well, same position really, you know, looking at third base, but man macho left the game early. It's that typical? It's only, it's an ankle sprain ne x-rays came back negative positive there, negative result, but it's overall a positive result in terms of a negative x-ray there. Um, but it's one of those gross looking injuries where you see them running and it's almost like they got shot in the leg and it goes kind of limp. And then they just do that kind of helpless fall to the ground. So it did not look good. However, the early returns from it seemed to be that they avoided anything major, which is good because I actually wrote it up in today's. But as you all are listening to it, it was yesterday's um, DFS heart of the order video in that the Padre's offense without Manny Machado is, you know, world of hurt and they're already without, Tatis like sure, the Jorge El farro, Luke VO, Jake Kronan worth who's hot right now.
Speaker 1 00:10:41 There are some guys there, but without Mandy Machado in that lineup, it just lacks that punch when you look at it. So while he seems to have avoided major injury would not be surprised to see him miss a couple of games here. Cause like I said, it looks awkward and the team needs him more than anything. So give him a couple days to get back. So, um, what do you think about this Machado injury? Do you kind of agree with me that it seems like he'll probably avoid an IL stint? Um, or do you think he'll actually hit, he'll hit the shelf?
Speaker 2 00:11:09 Um, I'm not a hundred percent sure on that, right? Because it depends on how serious the ankle sprain is clearly a third base to be the kind of defender of the man ma Chatto is you need range and ankle sprains tend to reduce that pretty significantly. Um, I am seeing as of 20 minutes ago on Twitter that AJ CAEL who is a beat writer for the Padres for MLB dot, uh, dot com is saying that CJ Abrams is officially back with the Padres. Um, so in all likelihood that's due to them having to trim, uh, an extra arm off the roster, right? Cuz they have to move down to 13 pitchers. Um, but you can expect him to get some playing time. It's short and they'll move ha on Kim to third base. So they have some in-house candidates that they can use to fill the playing time whether or not he goes on the IO, but I would expect him to miss the next, uh, few games. At least even if he's not on the IO,
Speaker 1 00:12:08 Any interest then in CJ Abrams, he might be out there in a couple of leagues. I know in his cup of coffee stint earlier this year, he only, he only hit a buck 82, 1 Homer and one steel, but his minor league stats are impressive and he's been hot of late. He's got a three 14 average in the minors this year. So any interest in a CJ Abrams type while Maha's on the shelf, at least I think, cause
Speaker 2 00:12:27 I think, I think he stays up. Like there were folks talking about this with Alex Koff too, with the, with the twins as a way that he could stay up is the fact that they have to trim the roster down to 13 pitchers. Right. And you still have to keep 26 guys on the active roster. So if you're kicking a few pitchers off, you've gotta make room for that with bats. So it wouldn't be shocking to see CJ Abrams be able to stay up. Um, plus they have versatility between has and Kim and Jake Kronan worth, right? So if you have three dudes who are capable of playing like six total positions, it makes you pretty balanced in terms of matchups and how to set it up your roster. So I think CJ Abram stays
Speaker 1 00:13:15 And I, I, I think you're, you're gonna be right. Like I said, they're gonna need some pop there in, in June, in the minor, just in the month of June only struck out six times across 62 at bats. Whereas when he was up with the team a little bit earlier on little minor strikeout issues, but you know, he's young, he's figuring out, but there's definitely some fantasy potential to be had there. So moving away from all these players that are leaving lineups, let's talk about some that are either coming back or about to come back. The first one, which behooves, many of my fantasy teams, Jack Flaherty made his return for St. Louis. They had him on a pretty strict pitch count, which I believe they said that they were gonna limit him to 60 pitches. I believe he threw exactly 60. If I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 1 00:13:54 I remember being that's pretty nice, pretty, pretty right on it. But I mean, it, it's tough for FLA when you have a first matchup like that, going against a dynamite powerhouse offense of the Pittsburgh pirates and he allowed, you know, two earn runs on three hits, couple of three strikeouts and a couple of walks. Obviously there's gonna be some rust to be shaken off. He's arguably, well, he is delayed in the year, but he's probably delayed in terms of his conditioning, everything like that. He's still working up to a pitch count. James and I talked about it last week. If he was available last week probably should have picked him up because he could probably be an S P two, the rest of the way. Once he shakes this rust off, I'm still pretty steadfast in that belief that he's gonna be, you know, an S P two, a very reliable arm, the rest of the way. And there's good strikeout potential there. So, uh,
Speaker 2 00:14:36 I was, I was on him pre-season before he got re-injured
Speaker 1 00:14:41 You and me both
Speaker 2 00:14:42 Like we, we talked about this in a pre-season one before his injury that we liked what we saw from him last year before he got, um, before he, he missed some time last year. And I think that can return. There's no reason it can't. Um, so yeah, he is gonna be rusty, right? Going back to Strausberg real quick. If you actually watched the game, his line was good until he got tired and they left him in about a half inching too long and he, they just started to square up pitches. He was leaving up in the zone and that's what did the damage. But before that, he was pretty solid. So yeah, there's gonna be some rust. It's gonna be a couple more starts before he gets, you know, the leash taken off and, and he goes full, uh, you know, full pitch count there, but I have no problem adding Jack, if he's still there, you need to get him on your lineup.
Speaker 1 00:15:33 Like yeah. AB absolutely. And it's, he's gonna be someone that's gonna be tough to trade for, because most likely if he's owned, if he was kept, if he was kept already or drafted and the team kept him, you're not gonna be
Speaker 2 00:15:44 Somebody doesn't wanna get rid of him. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 00:15:46 Cause they would've done it already. So if now, if it's someone who just picked him up, maybe he's foreign innings, foreign runs here in his next star. Maybe he'll send a little offer for a little by low, but I'm, I mean, my stance hasn't chained on FLA. Even like we talked about it back in February, he can be an SP two. If he's healthy, once he shakes off this rust, I don't see why I would, why I would wave on that opinion with him. So he's too good. He's simply too good. I'll just leave it at that. The New York Mets, everyone goes on the shelf for them. It seems like, but eventually they do come back. It might not be long until they go back again, but they, they do make their way back there. So, um, mad max sure are looking like his return is IMIT as well as James McCann. So maxers are I believe you told me prepo he is making a rehab start Tuesday. I, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a start this weekend with the big league club. Yeah. You would mention, what do you think there am I, am I, am I too optimistic?
Speaker 2 00:16:43 It's so the pitch count in Tuesdays, you know, June 21st for an actual date. And depending on the day you're listening to this, um, he's facing AA Binghamton, or he's not facing Binghamton. He's pitching fora Binghamton, and they want him to go 60 to 70 pitches, which is pretty respectable. So what my guess is is that he, if he makes it through that, okay. Without any discomfort, he'll go and do his normal side session a couple of days later. And if he's fine there, then you'll see him back with the major league club by this weekend. If the start doesn't go great, or there's some extra signs of rust or there's some, you know, soreness, then I think you see him make one more rehab start, um, down in the minors, either with double a or triple a, depending on where the schedule aligns. Cuz keep in mind, they're gonna want him to pitch for the home. They're gonna want him to pitch at home for their affiliate so they can milk the ticket sales. Right. Mm-hmm <affirmative> um, so yeah, he's either gonna be up this weekend or he's gonna be up at some point like late next week. But the return from ad max is pretty imminent for the Mets, which is impressive. Considering the fact they held serve in that division without DRO or Scher, uh, or Tyler McGill for that matter in their rotation for like the last month.
Speaker 1 00:18:04 Yep. And then looking at it here, they face the moral ends this week. If he faces the Marlins, do you think how many strikeouts do you think over, under put it at six and a half. If he makes that strong
Speaker 2 00:18:14 Over,
Speaker 1 00:18:15 I would too
Speaker 2 00:18:16 Kinda be strike out. Happy.
Speaker 1 00:18:18 Yeah. Just, just keep that in mind for you underdog folks out there or you prize picks players out there, there could be a little juice on, um, mad max on Saturday or Sunday. Yeah. The
Speaker 2 00:18:27 Only way he doesn't go over is if there's a pitch, count on him
Speaker 1 00:18:31 In that. And he could, but he still very well could go over.
Speaker 2 00:18:34 He could, he has the ability to be, it'll all depend on the first inning with him. Right. If he has a rough first inning, he'll go under if he has a good first inning, he'll go over.
Speaker 1 00:18:45 Yep. And yep. And then James B MCCA coming back, anybody who drafted him finally gets a catcher with an offensive pulse, which is always nice too. Yeah. Especially a two catcher setups. Any catcher that swings the bat sometimes makes contact with the ball with said bat is always nice to have. Um,
Speaker 2 00:19:01 So yeah. Now the only problem with him though, is he's out with a wrist issue,
Speaker 1 00:19:05 Wrist injury stink for hitters,
Speaker 2 00:19:07 Right? So while he's coming back and I know we don't expect a whole lot of pop from most of the catchers, he is coming back from a wrist deal, which should, which could SAP the power from him to start. Now, he's been doing a rehab start since the 16th of June. Uh, so he's looking to hit the early side of his six to eight week, uh, prognosis when he first went on the shelf. So that's good for you. That means you're either gonna lose what Thomas Nito or Patrick. I dunno, the guy's last name was very good in Scrabble. I can't pronounce it. Um, you gonna lose one of them and then you'll get James McCann back at catcher. So things are turning up in Mets world.
Speaker 1 00:19:53 Absolutely. Now we gotta talk some prospects. I know they're near and dear to your heart. We even added a little prospect of note segment, um, coming near the end of this. So we'll definitely come back there. And then I have a bold prediction for the week that lies with a pro or a prospect. We're gonna talk about here, but we're gonna start, I've wanted this for so long. And I got it for a cup of tea last year and it's time again. But Pittsburgh has called up the six foot 72 inch tall O'Neil cruise, who is a short stop for now? Who probably won't be this time next year when we're talking, um, it just isn't gonna happen.
Speaker 2 00:20:28 We'll move to right field.
Speaker 1 00:20:29 Yeah. In the minors. I mean, yeah, this year he is hitting 2 32, but he is got nine home runs, 11 stolen bases. You look at his grades, he's got a 30 to 40 hit tool, but the raw power's an 80 immense power. There is going to be strikeouts in his game. It is going to happen early on. He may be a bit of a batting average liability, but he can do it all. And it only takes him about four and a half steps to get to each base so he can move pretty quick around the base pats, given his length. So talk to me about O'Neil cruise. What can fantasy baseball managers expect here for 2022? And why is he the key component to a pirates championship run this year?
Speaker 2 00:21:05 Um, well <laugh> last part aside. Um, O'Neil cruise is gonna strike out a lot. Mm-hmm that's just gonna happen. It's in his game. That's what you can expect from big time power guys. It's also, he's six foot seven. So sometimes the strike zone works against him. Just ask Aaron judge about that one. Um, or Jim Carlo Stan either way. Um, so yeah, he's got a speed component. That's really impressive. You can like in a full season with O'Neil cruise, you can probably expect 30 plus homers in 22 to 25 steals. Right? There's not a whole lot of dudes that are doing that. Uh, the batting average, not gonna be great if he hits two 40 in the majors, that'll be really impressive. Mm-hmm <affirmative> um, but if you're getting that kind of run production from him, do you really care? Not really. Um, and yeah, his frame is like, I still don't understand how the dude is playing shortstop at six, seven.
Speaker 2 00:22:07 That's insane to me that he, he can play shortstop at six, seven. So I I've been saying for a while now, like I said, this, I don't know about a year and a half ago in prospect reports that he will move to right field. He's got a double plus arm that can mow people down from right field. And he just has the profile of a right. Fielder. You, you don't, I mean, think about Aaron judge with speed and a worse hit tool. That's basically what we're saying here. Right. Um, so can we expect that right off the bat in the majors? I don't think so, but if you're in a keeper league or a dynasty league, this is the beginning of something pretty special.
Speaker 1 00:22:49 Yeah. And it's one of those things too, where the power speed, all that's gonna take some time getting adjusted to major league baseball. One thing that's going to be there from day one until probably the end of his career is going to be the strikeouts. They're just gonna be there. Yes. Live with it. It's a matter of fact, I'm, I'm a little upset you didn't touch on my final bullet point there about being a championship run because how, I mean name a better offensive quartet in major league baseball than O'Neal Cruz Brian Reynolds could Brian Hayes and Jackinsky name a better offensive quartet than them. I mean, bets, Turner, Freeman lame.
Speaker 1 00:23:27 I can't even name four hitters on Washington's team. So that's lame. We can keep going through all the teams. It's just so Winky Hayes, Cruz and Reynold. It's, it's gonna be a great 30 for 31 day improbable run. I don't know any of those players. So not, not as good, not as good as what Pittsburgh has in those four. There, uh, another prospect that got the call up in Boston is Jeter downs. Looking at some of his numbers here in the minors. This year, 11 homers and, and 11 stolen bases in 53 games is really good. Uh, 180 batting average, 2 97 BP. And we want to get even worse with it. Look at last year in the minors, 32% strikeout rate, 31% strikeout rate here this year. And again, 180 average. I mean, power speed are nice, but it's almost like the average is gonna be even worse. It's almost like he does everything a little bit worse than Hayes or I'm sorry. And then cruise. And then there's some power. There's some speed. He's gonna strike out a good bit. Maybe not as much as crews, but the batting average could be a liability. So what can we even expect from Jeter downs? And is there even a path to everyday playing time in that lineup?
Speaker 2 00:24:35 Not yet. Um, so he was a big part of the Moki bets deal. Mm-hmm <affirmative> couple years ago. Uh, and folks in Boston were pretty excited to get him until he started playing for them. And then they were like, eh, this isn't great. We'll, we'll blow aside to the fact that he's named after the starting shortstop hall of Famer for their archival, cuz he's named after Derek Jeter. Um, but yeah, the strikeouts man, as he's gotten through the upper minors, the strikeouts have gotten way worse and it's hard to judge batting average in the minors cuz you don't know what kind of parks they're playing in and how significant the park factors are. And if they're learning to shift and what kind of, you know, quality stuff they're facing, but either way you cut it a 180 is not great over 30% strikeout rate, not great.
Speaker 2 00:25:23 This is also why he's been falling for a while on basically it's a, it it's been a consensus fall in the prospect rankings for Jetter downs over the last two years. So he got the call cuz they needed a bat, uh, as they trim their again, the picture deal. But once kike Hernandez comes back from the IO, which should be pretty quick or, and or Christian Arroyo, I think ju downs gets booted. Um, he, he, his bat needs so much work right now. It it's not worth bringing him up and exposing him to major league pitchers and killing his confidence. So he'll be up for a few days and then he'll go back down.
Speaker 1 00:26:04 Yeah. And just for what it's worth with downs, if he had his, if he, if he was in the major league, right. Major leagues right now, which I mean, he is now at this point, 11 home runs an 11 stolen base would be nice, but that 180 batting average would be the second lowest amongst qualified hitters. And this year in the minor, he's got a WRC plus of just 86. And when you look at some of the players in major league baseball right now who have an 86 WRC plus we're talking along the lines of Elvis Andrews, K bear Ruiz, Isaiah kinder Fafa so not an overly encouraging hit tool or hit profile at this point, cheap power and speed. Sure. But you know, if there's no path to regular playing time, he's, he's not gonna be a, a guy that plays every third day. And when he does play, he's gonna go two for three with a home run and a steel every time, just not ready yet.
Speaker 2 00:26:49 Yeah.
Speaker 1 00:26:50 Uh, another player made their debut. Uh, we got Gerard incar in Miami. I'm interested what you think about this one? Cuz his, his debut was memorable. I'm
[email protected] article here since at least 1901 first player to hit a grand slam steal a base and record an out fuel assist in their debut. First Dominican born player to hit a grand slam in their debut. Second Marlin to hit a grand slam in their debut ninth major league player since 2000 whose first hit was a grand slam. We're not exactly talking about a top 20 prospect in baseball. He was per I believe prime lb was a top 20 project just in the Miami system. So what can fantasy baseball manager expect for in Carac as one would think this at least debut might give him a slightly longer leash. So what are we expecting this year from Gerard and COAC moving forward?
Speaker 2 00:27:36 Yeah. So I wrote him up, um, I guess a couple of months ago now in the prospect report talking about, um, you know, how he's kind of a, he's kind of a sleeper, right? He's a late bloomer type prospect. The power is ridiculous with him. The speed. I'm not sure it's gonna stick long term. It's not anything to write home about. He's also kind of a bigger framed guy. Uh, but the power is there. The hit tool is kind of hit and miss excused upon. Um, so it's basically his bat. That's gonna carry him and I'm pretty sure I count him as like a DH only type guy gen well, not DH only, but he, there is a question as to where his defensive home is going to wind up, uh, at this point. So he's a real big power bat for Miami. And can he stick? Yeah. If he keeps hitting bombs, then he'll stick and they'll play him either at first or maybe a corner outfield spot or DH. Right. They'll make it work. Um, is, is he an elite prospect? No, for sure. He's not an elite prospect, but the power is there. And sometimes one tool guys who are very, very good at one tool can stick and make an impact.
Speaker 1 00:28:56 Yep. Let's get into a little buy or sell. So last I believe it was last week I wrote up Texas's a Ezekiel Duran in, uh, a positional spotlight for the second base mission. And basically said, you can add, enjoy the speed, get some couples cheap, stolen bases, a little bit of pop. But if someone offers you anything of value for him, sell baby sell. He hitting 2 91, 2 home runs and two stolen bases, his stat cast metrics aren't that overwhelming expected batting average of 2 59 he's ex ex exceedingly outperforming his expected statistics. So for me, he is a firm sell. I wrote it last week. My opinion hasn't changed. Um, are you gonna talk me off the ledge of selling Ezekiel Duran at this point?
Speaker 2 00:29:40 No, I'm not. I mean he had a very good 45 game stint at AA this year that earned a Macala, but again, it's a 45 stint, a 45 game stint at AA. First time at AA. He hasn't played at triple a and yeah. Is it a very good start to do his MLB career? Sure. 14 games. Great. Um, but I'm with you. I'm gonna sell if I get anything of value for him, I think he's outperforming, um, not only his expectations, but generally speaking his tools too, because the hit tool grades out about a 40, maybe a 45. Um, so if you consider an average MLB hitter to be hitting about two 70, that puts him about two 60. So he's out producing that the power's legit, he's got above average power, which profiles at about 25 homers a year. Um, and the speed is just below average. So, uh, you know, he's never had more than 12 stolen bases in a year as a prospect that was with the Yankees in 2021. Um, sorry. He actually had 19 total that year between the Yankees and the Rangers. Um, but I think that drops as he gets to the upper minors and the majors. So yeah, if you're getting anything of value, I would trade Oze yielder in
Speaker 1 00:30:57 Sell baby sell. That's what I said. That's what I'll continue to say with him. Now we're gonna go to her mom marque here in Colorado, his number stink this year. Don't get me wrong. Eras north of six, just not very good. But when you look at some of the other metrics expected eras a 4.81. And the real reason I wanted to put him in here is we do some foreshadowing. Could the Rockies deal him? Maybe, maybe not. Or as the sales man on Twitter says yes, as I'm in the midst of these maybes and maybe not there. And you look for his career, his era away from cores is a 3 95 where it's a 4 93 at home for his career. And he's been a member of the Rockies for all seven years of his professional career. So it's gonna be tough. The, these situations are intriguing, cuz if you wait until marque is traded, that price point goes up because it's always outta cores. And now he's gonna be a SI young S pitch when it's not
Speaker 2 00:31:51 John.
Speaker 1 00:31:52 Exactly. So yeah, the John Gray narrative really with him. So her mom, marque, is he a buy or a selfie view? Cause right now there's no guarantee he gets traded. So maybe the better question here is it's almost a by or sell, but it's really in terms of, do you think he gets traded yes or no AKA by or sell?
Speaker 2 00:32:11 You know, I said yes, a couple of minutes ago now I'm rethinking it. Given the fact that they didn't deal Trevor's story. When we all thought that they would deal Trevor's story, um, to trade deadlines in a row that they didn't deal for whatever reason. Um, so it's possible that they decide that they need Herman Marko to be the ACE of their staff because they don't exactly have a guaranteed pitching prospect coming up through their system at the moment. Um, but you know, there's been a whole rash of pitching injuries that have happened this year. Is it possible that the Dodgers make a move and get Herman marque? Because the Rockies don't care if they're gonna have to face 'em because the doctors have a great, uh, farm system that they could mine. Theoretically, if the Rockies were smart, um, because you got Buer out for like possibly three months at this point, Khaw is, you know, supposed to be like he's back, but will, how long will this back hold out? And you've got still dust may on the shelf and you've got other guys, you know, still kind of hanging out there hurt. So you could see him moved where the Rockies could be the Rockies and just sit on 'em and then let him walk <laugh> and not get anything for him. So that was a very long winded answer to not really answer.
Speaker 1 00:33:36 Yeah. The more you look at like his home home Homer for nine is 2.4, but it's just a 0.6 on the road. But even so even on the road this year, he still has a 5.3, four era. I mean, if you can buy him for a bag of peanuts, sure. Go ahead for it. But I would just tread optimistic, tread cautious, cautiously optimistic, I guess is one thing that you could say with her mom marque. Now we go to Tristan McKenzie, average exit velocity, 13th percentile allows a good bit of hard contact. He's got a 2.9, six era on the year, but he's staring down the barrel of a 3.8, three expected era. What, what is the case here with Tristan McKenzie? Are we buying or are we selling?
Speaker 2 00:34:18 I I'm gonna sell, um, I just don't know that he can control stuff well enough to get you deep into ball games at this point. Um, look, he flashes good stuff, but ultimately I'm not sure how long he sticks as a starter to be perfectly honest. Um, I just don't think his stuff holds up deep into a game or through a lineup multiple, you know, more than two times. So I would try to sell and get what you can for him at this point.
Speaker 1 00:34:53 I think I'd agree too. If his strikeout rate was on par with where it was last year, I think you could convince me to hold, but a strikeout rate that's dropped from well over a batter inning to well below a batter per just a 22% strikeout rate. Just really, isn't gonna cut it for me, especially with knowing what I'm looking at in terms of expected era, his fit. And next step are up in the mid fours. Regression seems to be in store for this guy. And that's just where put me his flyball pitcher too. So home runs are always gonna be a problem. I don't like that.
Speaker 2 00:35:21 Agreed.
Speaker 1 00:35:21 All right, we'll go ahead and talk for a new segment here. It's a prospect of notes. So besides being a, a NASCAR guru and F one fan baseball fan and our prospect guy here at fantasy alarm, as if that wasn't enough, he now wants to add a prospect of note segment here to the podcast. So Matt, who is the prospect of note this week that you just really want to get a chance to highlight. Maybe they're not talked about enough or honestly, it's just someone that you want to opine about.
Speaker 2 00:35:47 Yeah. So this guy is deep in the Padre system. Uh, everybody is deep in the Padre system. It seems like. Uh, but, and I may not be saying, saying his name exactly correctly. So don't hammer me on that one, but I believe it's estuary Ruiz, uh, E S T U sorry, E S T E U R Y Ruiz. He's an outfielder. He's currently a triple a. Why do I want to talk about him right now? He's played 48 games this year between double a and triple a. He had, sorry, he's played 60 games this year. He has 48 stolen bases. Yeah. He stole 11 bags and 11 games at triple a. Uh, his speed's ridiculous. The batting average right now is 360 on the year. That's not gonna hold. He's got about a 40 to 45 hit tool, but the speed is like 80 grade.
Speaker 2 00:36:37 It's insane. Um, so he's very good at defending. He's very good at swiping bags, not a ton of power. There's a decent amount there enough to hit you about maybe 15 a year, but the speed's insane. So if you, and there's a decent chance that he gets called up fairly quickly, um, because let's face it, the, the Padres need all the offensive help they can get. And if they're not gonna hit him over the fence and stealing them is a pretty decent way to score runs. So there's a chance he gets called up quickly. Uh, he is not anywhere in anybody's top, like 400 at this point. He's MLB pipeline has him like, I don't know, 29th in the Padre system. Uh, but he's stealing bags at a ridiculous clip. Again, it's 48 stolen bags in 60 games this year. Yeah. So that's ridiculous.
Speaker 1 00:37:30 Yeah. And when you look for his minor league career, he's got 206 stolen bases and 467 games. He, he almost has more stolen bases than RBI in his minor league career.
Speaker 2 00:37:43 Yep. Makes sense. He's the top of the order hitter. So <laugh> not, he almost,
Speaker 1 00:37:47 He almost has more stolen bases than strikeouts this year.
Speaker 2 00:37:50 Yeah.
Speaker 1 00:37:51 All right. Keep, keep that name on the wire on the, on the back of the mind, I'm writing it down. Cuz my team, my TG FBI team is very good in stolen bases right now, but you know, if some are good, more must be better. Right? That's what they always say. Mm-hmm <affirmative> so it definitely could not hurt. We'll go ahead and wrap up this episode with the bold prediction for the week. That lies ahead. James took a dig at my pirates last week, which obviously did not work out well for him. And obviously it was incorrect. Like it always was going to be, I went for Christopher Morel, two homers and two stolen bases this week. He hit the two homers only one stolen base. So that was a little upsetting there. But Matt, I will let you go ahead first with your prediction for the week. That lies ahead.
Speaker 2 00:38:30 Um, yeah, so right now the angels are sitting nine and a half games behind the Astros and second place in the Al west. The Astros have a very tough upcoming schedule between the Mets and the Yankees and the angels don't have quite so bad of a schedule against the Royals and the Mariners. So my prediction is that the angels will be within five games of the Astros by next Monday, O
Speaker 1 00:38:55 I don't mind that at all. And after those series, they're looking down the barrel of like Marlins Orioles. They don't face pirates. That's a net win for them. So lucky. So I don't mind that there, my bull prediction of the week does lie with Pittsburgh lies with top prospect O'Neil cruise. He's gonna hit three homers this week, but he is gonna post a strike out rate of over 30% during this first week of action here in the 2022 season. So angels within five games of Houston, O'Neil cruise three plus homers, but a 30 plus percent strikeout rate. So that will put a bow on this week's episode of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast, give self a follow at Colby. Our con on Twitter, give Matt sells a follow at the sales man gives all the NASCAR content here on the site. Price picks plays everything in between. On the weekend. My discord is just blowing up with, uh, updates from Matt sells regarding all of the good racing content there, but keep checking out fantasy alarm for all the content that you need, whether whatever sport it is, if you play daily seasonal pits, all there for you and be active in the discord. Happy to answer any questions there as well. So we will see you next week with the next edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast.
