Speaker 1 00:00:08 And welcome in to the newest edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast. I'm your host Colby Conway at Colby R Conway on Twitter. And with me as always not one, but the two regulars here with me this week, Matt, I'll kick it over to you first at the sales on Twitter. So, Matt, how is everything going for you this week?
Speaker 2 00:00:27 Uh, things are going well. We had a pretty good, uh, week for NASCAR, won people some money there. Um, baseball's going pretty well. Um, I mean, well, as good as it can for my lowly nationals at this point. Um, but yeah, it's, you know, things are checking along. I'm waiting until September to see who's gonna be the, uh, September call up that everybody's gonna rush and go get, um, James just picked one up, uh, before we started recording actually.
Speaker 1 00:00:55 Nice. And then speaking of that, James actually here with us as well. So at still hasn't gotten the updated Twitter handle to my knowledge. So it's still at the underscore real underscore Grande. So James, besides the Yankees continuing to stink, how is everything going for you?
Speaker 3 00:01:09 Whoa, whoa man. We're one and oh, in our, in our last, uh, one game. So, um, positive outlook this week, Colby, uh, it is Monday, so lots of coffee has been consumed, you know? Um, and today, you know, I realize the first cup of coffee is like getting like an order of mozzarella sticks before your main meal or getting some, you know, Mac and cheese bites, right? It's the appetizer, the first cup of coffee does nothing. The second cup of coffee is really where the, where the productivity comes from. So, um, shout out to the second cup of coffee, the first cup of coffee, we just, we just cruise past it, but shout out to the second cup of coffee. Um, that's really what I wanted to, the hard hitting analysis I had for the, for today.
Speaker 1 00:01:54 Well, the first cup of coffee is just get you primed for the second one. And really at that point coming off a weekend, first cup of coffee on a Monday morning is more so maintenance than anything agreed. It's you know, nothing past that, but I really like your, the way you're com you're, uh, com compartmentalizing everything with the Yankees. That's a very Pirate's philosophy kind of like how, Hey
Speaker 2 00:02:12 Man, we're, we're one in O's table, slap true.
Speaker 3 00:02:16 This is true. This
Speaker 2 00:02:17 Is gonna be a stat. You know, it's gonna show up on
Speaker 1 00:02:19 You. Let me know when you get to the point where you, when the, when the Yankees have like a lead in the first inning for a week and it's, and then you get to the point where it's like, man, if we score one, run every inning <laugh> entire season, like we're on pace. We are gonna have a top offense in major league baseball. So you're not quite, you're not quite to the pirates level yet, but you're getting close.
Speaker 2 00:02:38 The Yankees won even with Whit Mayfield, double dunking, a ball off the top of the wall,
Speaker 1 00:02:43 But you already know what I'm gonna say to that
Speaker 2 00:02:45 For a home run.
Speaker 1 00:02:46 You let me know when they win a game without getting a hit <laugh> once they can win without getting a hit, then I'll be convinced. But until then, I'm just <laugh> you can't sell me on it. You can't sell me on it. I mean, Hey Andrew band, Andrew Ben 10, Ben 10 finally hit a home run. So I mean, that shows that I guess anything can happen, cuz I, I was almost convinced that he wasn't gonna hit a home run at all. Yep. During his time with the Yankees. But we'll talk about that in a little bit more here in this episode, of course have to talk about it. Free NFL draft guide, check it out seasons right around the corner. Fantasy football drafts are in full swings, make you're checking out the cheat sheet and everything involved in the draft guide. Once again, it's free.
Speaker 1 00:03:21 It is free $0. It is free. Can't say it enough. So onto some baseball talk, Matt, let me come to you. First. Dustin may made his long awaited return, honestly, at a much needed time for the Dodgers team that has starting pitchers dropping off and heading to the IL like flies at this point, Taman five innings, nine strikeouts, tired. The final. I believe it was 13 hitters that he faced, uh, looked good. Obviously he, he doesn't throw a baseball. He throws a damn Frisbee. Let's be honest. The movement is ridiculous. So obviously he needs to be owned in pretty much every format with the offense backing him. But what kind of impact do you think for fantasy baseball purposes? And I guess really for reality that Dustin may can make here down the stretch.
Speaker 2 00:04:02 I mean, let's not forget the pedigree that this guy had, right? Like before he was injured, Dustin may was viewed as a potential number two starter for them. Like you could bump Kershaw down to the three spot for maintenance and have, um, may up there or you have, you know, Julio E in the mix there too. But, um, he's got absolutely filthy stuff. Just flat out filthy stuff. You said it perfectly, he throws Frisbees, man. It's like ultimate Frisbee out there with a bat and study your hands. Um, so you know, how many innings is he gonna get? I'd be shocked if he goes much past six. And then he started at this point cuz they just need him to stay healthy for the playoffs. Right. They're clearly going to the playoffs. They're gonna lock down that division. Um, and they just need all the pitching depth they can get for the actual playoffs.
Speaker 2 00:04:49 So in terms of fantasy, I think you can reliably get five innings out of them. I think you're gonna get 7, 8, 9, 10 strikeouts to start from 'em cuz the stuff is that good. Um, and you could be in line for some wins cuz if he pitches five innings, he's gonna qualify now. Is he like gonna win you a league at this point? Well, I don't know. It depends on how close you are in categories or points or whatnot. Could he make a difference in the standings? Yes. Should he be owned? Absolutely. But you know, is he, I can't go out there and tell you if you get him you're gonna win. Even if you're in like dead last place, right. He'll make a difference. He'll make an impact. If you're in first, he'll help you hold first. Other than that, he'll help you climb at least a spot in standings, depending on how close you are,
Speaker 1 00:05:39 Uh, James for the rest of the year for DFS wise. How many times do you think if, if you happen to be doing the playbook or any DFS content when Dustin may is pitching the rest of the way, given that he probably won't go too late in the games might be more of a GPP option, but how often do you think you will write him up the rest of the way assuming positive health? Uh, very
Speaker 3 00:05:57 And Matt hit it on the head like he has, he just misses bats. Um, he kind of reminds me of like the righty Chris sale with the way his stuff moves. Um, the, the, except the alive version of Chris sale, the, the, the version that is, was breathing and I used the past tense was cuz we know,
Speaker 2 00:06:19 Hey, maybe Christo had to die for Dustin made a lick.
Speaker 3 00:06:22 This could be, this could be true, Matt, this is, this is point. Um, you know, so I I'm gonna write him up a lot solely based off the strike at upside. But like Matt said, it's, it's Dave Robert's Mo to begin with, with guys to not pitch them deep into games and especially, you know, coming off the injury, he did. I mean, there's just no chance he's ever probably touching 90 pitchers into game this year. So, um, you know, I think we're going to see a lot of starts where, because he misses a lot of bats, the pitch count, you know, piles up quickly and he might not even qualify for wins. Um, so I think he's best suited for ratios and seasonal. I think there's going to be times where you look at his price in draftings and FAL and it doesn't make sense given like teams lower strike out rates and whatnot because those are the teams that are gonna force him outta the game in four earnings, cuz he's at 80 pitches. So, um, I think it's, I think it's a, a very quality pickup, but like Matt said, I don't view him as a league winner. I think next year is the, the leap that he'll take, you know, that's the year we'll we'll really see how good Dustin may is and if he can help win leagues. Um, but right now, given dust, uh, Dave Roberts history with pitchers to begin, I mean, Julio rice still hasn't thrown more than 90 pitches. He's made 25 stars this year. So, um, so, uh, I think dusty, they
Speaker 2 00:07:50 Now, now that they know they're not getting Buer back, right? There's no reason to push a because you need as many healthy starters for that playoff run as possible.
Speaker 3 00:07:59 Well plus, and, and they, even if they don't even use them as a starter in the post season, you're getting two plus inning, two to four innings out of a guy who's gonna juice it up to a hundred miles an hour in those, in those low leverage or the high leverage, uh, one, two inning per like postseason innings that he's gonna get. If he's not used the starter. I mean, we're just talking about a dominant part of their pen. So, um, no reason to rush dust back. Good, good solid pickup for ratios, but don't expect a lot of wins cuz uh, I don't see a lot of five plus inning starts out of them.
Speaker 1 00:08:32 Yeah. I think that is the right way to look at it. He'll be very impactful on like a purning basis, but overall just the, the longevity and length in the games might be missing for may the rest of the way. Uh, fun little thing here to talk about over the last. I believe it is nine games. I believe if I have it correct. Some young gun by the name of Albert pals is hitting 5 56 with six home runs in 13 RBI. And I believe I saw something that said that he is done after this year. No matter he's going to be done. He's at 6 92 right now. And he is trying to hit a home run every single time because he wants 700 and he does not wanna be tempted to come back for what seems like his like 38th professional season in the major. So simply put James I'll come to you first does pool holes get to 700 by season's end?
Speaker 3 00:09:17 Oh man, do I want it to happen so badly? Um, so he needs eight. What do we have, um,
Speaker 2 00:09:28 Grab what at least 40 games left
Speaker 3 00:09:29 40 games, 42 games. Is that the exact number? 42 games left?
Speaker 2 00:09:35 Let me see what the
Speaker 3 00:09:36 Cardinals records here. I think it's 42 games left. Um, so he needs eight home runs 42 by my math. Uh, you know, might maybe not anyone else's math. Um, he needs one about every what? Fifth game.
Speaker 2 00:09:54 Yeah. Every five games will do it.
Speaker 3 00:09:56 <laugh> I mean, we're,
Speaker 2 00:10:02 It makes
Speaker 1 00:10:03 Batter homering one every four and a half at bats past nine games.
Speaker 3 00:10:07 I mean like the, sorry. Uh, I wrote this up in the DFS playbook for Monday. It's like, when has like when in the last 10 years has pool hosts been this good? Like literally like in the last 10 years? Like, I don't know. Right. Like, I don't know. Yeah. I don't know the answer to that question. Um, so I'm not gonna put it past one of the best hitters we're ever gonna see even in this like advanced stage. And I, I don't know. I wanna see it so badly. Um, 42 games is not a lot of time for eight home runs for a 40 plus year old guy. But I don't know. As long as he keeps facing lefties, I think anything is possible. That's what Kevin Garnet told us. So <laugh> um, I'm gonna go, you know what I'm gonna say? He ends his career with 700 home runs.
Speaker 2 00:10:57 He's the gatekeeper to the 700 club.
Speaker 3 00:11:00 Yep. 700 on the dot. Imagine how poetic it's gonna be when he hits 700 on game 1 62. Like imagine that like he goes into that game with, oh my you gotta lead 'em off, right?
Speaker 2 00:11:13 Yeah. Are they home for their final game of the season?
Speaker 3 00:11:16 I don't know, but oh
Speaker 2 00:11:18 No, they're not. They're in Pittsburgh. How about that? <laugh>
Speaker 1 00:11:21 Well, he better, he better get to 700 before that series telling
Speaker 2 00:11:24 You they actually, they actually finish against with back to back series against Pittsburgh, cuz they're at home against Pittsburgh for three games and then they go two Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 00:11:34 That's a tough draw for a team that has aspirations pass the regular season. That's a tough draw.
Speaker 3 00:11:40 Hopefully Zach, he doesn't see too much Zach Thompson in there. I don't want, you know, I don't want Zach Thompson to shut him down as yeah,
Speaker 2 00:11:47 By the way, Colby, you pointed out his last nine games. Uh, here's a tweet from Ryan Spader who I believe is like the Cardinal's beat writer, um, for either MLB or the, you know, St. Louis post dispatch, uh, in his last 28 games played Albert pool halls is slashing 4 0 8, 4 59, 8 29. And his 1288 ops is the best in MLB over that stretch. That
Speaker 4 00:12:13 Isn't insane.
Speaker 1 00:12:15 <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:12:16 So he's only gotta do it once every five days, right? He's only gotta hit a home run once every five days to get there. Um, the N LDH is clearly the reason he came back and is playing in the NL. Um, and I think St Louis is gonna give him every possible opportunity to get to 700, um, and watch 700 will be deposited in the same spot that, uh, the 70th home run for big Mac went, um, right over the right field or left field fence. But yeah, I think, I think I'm, I'm right there with James. I think he gets the exactly 700,
Speaker 1 00:12:54 I think I would say so as well. Let's talk about Josh hater, big time trade acquisition, who has been big time bad, I guess there's no other way to say it. And since he's come to the potters, I mean, some of the issues were prior to like, it's not just like the trade happened and he's become, you know, struggling all of a sudden. I mean, he's got a 16.2 era in five appearances with the Padres, but the struggles have persisted prior to the trade deadline. He had a little real rough stretch where he allowed nine earned runs while recording just one out coming against Minnesota and San Francis. The struggles have been there a bit for hater. And now apparently that he's going to be given quote a little break from the closer role. Seems like to me, Matt, this is more so of hopefully like a, a mental shift in terms of like you're out of the ninth, just go carve up in the seventh and eighth innings where it doesn't matter and then be ready down the stretch to close games out in the ninth. So as fantasy values gonna take a little bit of a hit now, but do you have any long term concerns with hater? I mean obviously the struggles have persisted now for a, a good chunk of the summer months.
Speaker 2 00:13:57 Um, no, I'm not sure that I'm not sure that I see this, the struggles continuing, um, let's keep in mind a, he pitched this entire career in the NL central, right? And the summer is usually jam packed with a bunch of divisional games. And so if you're seeing a bunch of the guys for a bunch of seasons in a row, and you're really only throwing two pitches, people are kind of, you know, if one of 'em isn't working great, then it makes it easier to, to be hit. The other thing that I wanna point out and I heard this I'm pretty sure is on moob network. They pointed out that, um, just before the trade, Josh hater and his wife had a complicated, uh, pregnancy and birth of their child. Um, so first of all, hope all is well there. Secondly, we gotta remember these guys are humans, right? So like if there's family stuff going on, it can be pretty hard to compartmentalize that and go out and be the lockdown guy. Um, you've been known to be, so I'm not all that concerned with him going into like next year for the rest of this year. Yeah. You're gonna lose some saves cuz I, I'm not sure they're gonna put 'em back there, uh, in the ninth for a while, but going forward, I'm not like, you know, in the next year, I'm not all that concerned.
Speaker 1 00:15:15 James, anything, dad.
Speaker 3 00:15:18 I mean, when you look at some of the numbers he's been pretty unlucky. Um, the strikeout rate has not tailed off in any forum. I mean 38.7% K rate. Um, the walks are on par with what he's done every year. Um, the home runs are obviously a little bit concerning, but like nothing that we're like, he's a flyball pitcher when people make contact everything's in the air. Um, I mean five 30 era. Sure. 2 97 xFi, like we're talking about almost two runs lower. Um, his three 19 Babi is crazy high compared to what his career mark is. So like I, I just looked it up. Milwaukee is like, was a slightly better defense than a league average. So like wasn't getting much help there. Um, and yeah, this, the, the struggles with the home run ball in, in his short time in San Diego, hasn't been great, but um, it's really just unlucky and he's, this is a big park upgrade for him as well pitching there.
Speaker 3 00:16:24 So I do think he'll get back to the ninth inning role at some point this year. I mainly because the options also looking around like, you know, they have a guy who was starting for them earlier in the year now, like in high leverage options, they have the eighth Louis Garcia in the league at the end of their bullpen as well. Um, and neither of those guys have any sort of closing pedigree whatsoever. Um, if either of them struggle, what's the point of keeping them there. When you could just go back to a guy that has had, you know, multiple 30 safe seasons and has been a little bit unlucky. So right now, yes, it hurts your ratios. There's no like answer off the waiver wire in San Diego that you want, uh, because they could, they're going to go to a committee. Um, but I think you trust a, you know, like Joel and bead said, trust the process, key hater on your bench for now. Um, he'll be there by the end of the year, in my opinion.
Speaker 1 00:17:20 I think that's a good way of looking at it. He's simply he's, he's too good. Even though he is struggling, he's too good to drop. You can't drop him cuz even so, I mean, sure. Maybe the era's a little bit higher, but his 15.1 K per nine still surely plays. Yep. You can live with some of the other stuff and hopefully that luck turns out like that Babit is insane. It just absolutely nuts compared to where it has been, uh, for Detroit, one of their prized off, I guess, prize, if you want to use that word off season acquisitions, Eduardo Rodriguez made his return to the mound, uh, this week and looking at him, he's fine. Five innings, four hits, three walks, five strike guys. Didn't really induce a ton of whips, but face day angels lineup that has largely underperformed. And like we talked about that team just stinks. There's just no other way around it. Um, he did miss a lot of time. I believe it was personal reasons, uh, that he was out for over over three months actually looking at it. But he's back actually make a couple starts the rest of the way. Uh, James, any interest in him if he's like available in leagues, is he worth a pickup or is he someone that's just in deeper league? Sure. But in shallow leagues you probably don't need to worry about you rod.
Speaker 3 00:18:22 I mean like he's okay. Uh, and you know, in competit leagues, like there's not many better options. I would say out there on the, on the waiver wire, um, the strikeouts have been down in his, you know, limited time on the amount he's made. Nine starts, strikeouts are down, walks are up, um, which you hate to see the, you know, some four era is fine. Um, but like if he's not striking guys out and he is walking more batters, he's not gonna get run support or wins in Detroit. Like it's really tough to be excited about Eduardo Rodriguez. Um, I was actually very high in him coming into the year. I thought the tires would be better. I thought this was a good signing for them. Just, you know, given the fact that Rodriguez had been pitching way better than his numbers suggested the last couple years, um, had been missing a lot of bats at, by the end of last year too, had one of his best, you know, the best statistical season by, in terms of strikeout, right. Just a year ago. Um, so like if he can get back to that short, it's obviously dicey. Um, but if you're in dire straits for pitching, like you could do worse than butter Rodriguez, you just need the ratios to balance out a little bit. He's again, walking too many guys and, and not striking out enough,
Speaker 1 00:19:38 Matt, anything to add regarding Edward or Rodriguez.
Speaker 2 00:19:42 Nope. Almond walks up there with James that you just need more strikeouts from him, less walks because that's the only thing you're gonna get from him. Yep. Like not a big chance of winds. Detroit's offense is so bad, um, that you know you, but he's a healthy arm.
Speaker 3 00:19:59 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:20:00 Right. That's the logic for keeping lefties who can't get anybody out in rotations is he's a healthy arm, speaking of Patrick Corgan. Um, so yeah, I mean, it's, it's nothing to get excited about except you get pitching depths,
Speaker 1 00:20:14 Maybe another potential flyer on the man would be Mike Soroka with Atlanta making his way back. Haven't seen him since 2020 through just 13 innings. Um, in that season, just at least the Achilles that has really kept him, but he is working his way back. Obviously he's gonna come back to a team that will give him ample run support. Again, he's gonna be someone, how much do we see of him even when he was in the big league level strikeouts, weren't really a big thing. He was able to pitch to a good era, but a lot of his other peripheral numbers indicated that he was maybe a little bit more lucky on that end. So Matt, any interest in Mike Soroka as a flyer, assuming we get more Infor more concrete information about his return. I believe that date is still kind of up in the air.
Speaker 2 00:20:55 Yeah, it is. They're kind of just seeing how he, you know, feels days after his, his, um, rehab starts and, and whatnot, but the last, you know, the last one was was okay. It wasn't great. Uh, no strikeouts in three and a third innings, um, in his last rehab start triple a, that speaks to the lack of strikeouts that we've seen. He's only ever topped out in the majors. It's 7.3 K per nine, which is not really great. Uh, the walks are decent. Um, era numbers are solid, although the fit is about a run higher than, than his era. So look, it, this is kind of the opposite of ed Edwardo Rodriguez, right? Because E rod is capable of striking guys out and not walking very many people and not gonna get wins. And his ratios will be okay, Soroka his ratios will be okay, except he's not gonna strike a lot of people out.
Speaker 2 00:21:55 He's not gonna walk a lot of guys and he's still gonna get wins because of the run support that he'll get from Atlanta's offense, assuming that he goes five inning. Um, so is he where the pickup yeah. As a flyer? Sure. The guy was previously a pretty good pitcher back. I mean, it was 2019, but he hasn't forgotten how to pitch since then. Right. We just need him to stay healthy. So I would take a flyer on Soroka I'm not dropping anybody major to get him. Uh, but I would take a, a flyer as a, you know, healthy arm in a good, uh, good ball club.
Speaker 1 00:22:31 I would agree with that. Uh, James, would you make it a perfect three for three clean suite?
Speaker 3 00:22:35 No, I actually on the complete opposite side and I think, um, you gotta look at first off, I think Matt, you spoke on it first. Like there's no strikeout upside. I mean he struggled, struck out, striking out major league hitters. Um, and then in his rehab start, which I get, it is just the second one of the year. Didn't strike out any minor leaguers, which I think is a pause for concern. Plus then you look at it, it's like, okay, when is he going to return? Right. A guy who doesn't strike anyone out who could qualify for wins, but how deep is into games? Is he gonna pitch as he builds back himself? Right. I know it's not an arm injury or anything. Um, but still they're obviously, you know, kind of, they don't another guy. They don't need to rush back to like heavy innings.
Speaker 3 00:23:20 They have the frontline starters they need for the playoffs. And then you look at September call up, who does he stack up against, against all the guys that are gonna be called up around the same time he is? Um, I would rather take a take shots on, um, most of the prospects being called up over Soroka because they are going to provide more strike on upside. Um, and aren't necessarily limited, like CERCA likely will, will be when he returns. So I'm on the opposite side. I think if my, in my interest in CERCA lies in 2023 and as a late round flyer, um, but not, not in 2022 with UN all month plus left in the season.
Speaker 1 00:24:03 Now I, I see both sides of that. Let's see if we all agree about Joey Gallo, who is honing the Yankees curse right now, as he continues to thrive in LA and the Yankees continue to stink. So I don't must own is a tough term. And I believe Matt, you talked about before, it's hard given who you're gonna drop, how many people in your league, everything like that. So must, Stone's a bit of a sticky word to say the least, but let's say this deeper formats only does Joey Gallo deserve a roster spot. I mean, since leaving the New York Yankees and heading to LA is heading 2 67, still has a 40% strikeout rate, but that's just never gonna go away. So let's just get used to it. But 4 34 WOBA 180 4 WRC plus three home runs a double mixed in there. He's he's hitting the ball. Well, the strikeouts are going to be there. Like I said, they are inevitable, but the hard contact is there and he's been quite impressive within the Dodgers lineup. I think in deeper formats, he has to be owned. So I'll kind of set the bar there. So Matt, where are you in terms of owning Joey gall? Let's say, let's say 12 to 14 teamers.
Speaker 2 00:25:06 I'm fine with that. Um, you know, he's, you gotta ride a hot streak with him, right? He's a tricky guy. So we gotta take him while he is hot, which he is. He's getting hit all over the Dodgers batting order right now. Um, he's literally hit anywhere from lead off to like fifth to eighth. So obviously we'd prefer to hit fifth or sixth. That's gonna be where he gets the most run, you know, RBI opportunities. And we can't complain about the division in terms of ballparks. Right? Dodger stadium is a great hitter's park. So his cores San Diego's a pretty nice hitters park. Yeah, you got San Francisco, but every division has, you know, that park. Um, so I'm fine with, with adding him again, it'd be for a guy that's mostly riding your bench at this point and, and just get some depth there with a guy who's hitting well right now, and definitely has power
Speaker 1 00:26:02 James where I know, I know you're a little biased in this because the curse is inevitably affecting you more than most, but Joey Gallo, is he a must own 12 to 14 team formats?
Speaker 3 00:26:12 Well, two things, one, I think the curse has split down the middle between Gallo and Jordan Montgomery. Um, cuz a lot of things have come out about Montgomery and has like fiance almost done being in school in New York. And then they traded him and like they didn't like tell him and like he's now pitching very angry. Uh, he's not one. So I think it's a 50, 50 split. Um, I think it's reasonable to pick him up. Um, in 12 to 14 team leagues, like Matt always says like, who, who would you drop? Like for me, like just looking around like the landscape of things. How about someone like, like a, a Marcello Zuna type who's just kind of largely been disappointing all year is now getting into legal trouble and like, oh again again, like someone like that, who's like been like a fringe starter all year.
Speaker 3 00:27:01 Like, all right, this guy's gonna come around. He's gonna come around. He's he's right. He's gonna come around. Right, right. Oh no. Oh, we're gonna get into legal trouble. Oh, oh crap. Uh, Joey gall sitting there. I think Ozuna like in Ozu Ozuna type of resume is a perfect job for Gallo. I agree. I think, you know, Matt said it correctly, like when Jo gal has been hot throughout his career, he's been a very good fantasy producer cuz he hits a lot of home runs. He's gonna drive-in runs and even thep is higher than it's ever been. Um, you know, I'll try to outside of the, the stint prior to getting traded to the Yankees originally. So, um, yeah, I mean I think Gallo is going to, like you said, Colby, like he's gonna strike out. It is what it is. We're not, we're not that, you know, he's not changing that suddenly. So, uh, I do think gala's a good pickup and um, if you have someone like Ozuna or Ozuna himself, uh, you can drop him for Joe gall.
Speaker 1 00:27:58 And then let's talk a little bit here, wrap up this episode, just a couple players at our level of concern, uh, with some of these guys. So let's start in Minnesota with Tyler, Molly went on the IL with shoulder inflammation. This whole shoulder fatigue thing has kind of been prevalent all year for him. Now he finally happens to hit the IL with it and Minnesota gave up a good little bit to get him mm-hmm <affirmative> um, only lasted two and a thirds in his last, a prior to that though, he dominated the angels, but I don't know how much we can really look into that to be honest. So Minnesota's probably a little bit worried about that shoulder of his, but it's, it's kind of been around all season. It looks like it finally just reared its ugly head at this point now. So James I'll come to you first. What is your level of concern with Tyler, Molly? The rest of the way for the twins?
Speaker 3 00:28:42 I mean, we should be largely concerned. Anytime you start talking shoulder in general, like if you start talking shoulder in April, March may, it's concerning, but we're in SEP. Like we're about to be in September. Um, how many starts was he even going to make rest of season? You know, uh, and now we're missing at least three trips around the rotation. Uh, very concerned seven plus 7.7. Um, I mean they got him to be a frontline guy. They got him to be in the rotation for the post season. Um, and he looked really good and then he didn't uh, and now the shoulders acting up. So, uh, I'm, I'm highly concerned, especially given the, the short span left on this season.
Speaker 1 00:29:26 Matt, what about you?
Speaker 2 00:29:28 Uh, I'm right there. I mean, I know the MRI did come back clean for ma uh, but there was a pretty substantial Velo drop, um, right about halfway through that shortened last start, I think you fell off about six to eight miles an hour. Um, like between the first and second innings. Um, and shoulders are always tricky now for, for starters, right? It used to be the elbow and the shoulder was fine and now it's kind of switched where if it's an elbow, there's very little concern and if it's a shoulder, it just spirals into stuff. Um, so we'll see. I mean, I think they just give him some rest and then work him back. But whether he pitches for the twins in the regular season, again, I, I don't know. It, it makes it pretty tight, uh, with the timeline, if he has a rehab starter two in there as well.
Speaker 1 00:30:18 And then in Chicago say this is Zuki hitting 10 home runs seven stolen bases, 2 49 average on the year. He's gotten a little bit hotter here in August, but his numbers for the month of August are still a little bit down. He's been more hot of late, I should say, but really he's just destroyed Milwaukee for his 10 home runs have come against the brewers this season, but he's largely underwhelmed for the most part, especially in recent memory, just leading up to the past couple of games here, but I mean 10 home runs seven stolen bases, 1 0 7 WRC plus that's fine. He had a lot of hype coming into the year and had a good start, but inevitably cooled off. And I think he missed some time with a finger injury that could have disrupted the rhythm a little bit here. Obviously he should still be really enticing for fantasy managers next season, but the rest of the way, is there any level of concern with say a Suzuki, Matt, I'll kick it over to you first?
Speaker 2 00:31:08 No, not necessarily. I think he's heating up. Um, his last game, he, he, uh, went, he had a pretty good day yesterday or uh, the last game out, uh, three for three with a home run, a single let of double on a walk. That's that's pretty good. I, I think a couple things are true. One. He's making a lot of adjustments coming stateside, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative> like going from any level of international ball to MLB right off the bat is a huge jump. Uh, cuz they simply a, don't see this many different pitchers in a season in Japan. They don't see this level of stuff on a regular basis in Japan and the entire Cub's offense around him. Hasn't really been good. Right. The guy we thought would be the, the lockdown starting first baseman for the Cubs. Frank swindle got sent to the minor leagues like two months ago.
Speaker 2 00:32:04 Right. Um, they've been just shifting a bunch of dudes in and out. We also thought that Ian ha and um, blanking on the, you know, the catcher Contreras were gonna get traded and they didn't. So that probably like shook up the locker room. So I'm not all that concerned. I think he's fine. Um, obviously going forward into next year, I think we all expect big things from him. I took him in the first round of a dynasty draft, uh, this past year cuz I expect him to be around and good for a while. So I'm, I'm not all that concerned with se a Suzuki right now.
Speaker 1 00:32:44 The next one should be interesting. And of the, the trio that I provide here, I think this is, this is the player that maybe the concern is a bit higher on albeit very young, but in Pittsburgh O'Neil cruise 23 year old, seven foot, eight inch shortstop. As of right now, probably future outfielder, maybe as soon as next year, if you just look at certain numbers, it's enticing, you know, nine home runs and six stolen bases and only 50 games and that over a full hundred 62 game season that comes to 29 homers, 19 stolen bases, 93 RBIS that looks appealing. However, he's hitting just a buck 96, the strikeout rate, which we knew was going to be a problem with him has been bad. And the worst of it is against lefties where he has a 52.9% strikeout rate on the year. So obviously he's a lefty.
Speaker 1 00:33:33 I get it. But he has just been completely overmatched against lefties. The nine home runs in six stolen bases in 50 games is quite good, but that batting average ISRI, the strikeout rates are bad. He swings and misses when he does make contact. Sure. He might send one, you know, all the way across the city and maybe even out of the zip code, but there's a ton of swing and miss in his game right now that hasn't quite developed yet. But again, he's only 23 getting his first extended stay in the majors here. So Matt I'll come to you kind of the big prospect guru here. I mean, this guy is all the potential in the world. And a lot of what we figured has kind of played true in that the strikeouts are gonna be a real problem. So what is your level of concern at least for this year and maybe even long term, I guess if you have it with O'Neill cruise.
Speaker 2 00:34:20 Um, so to address the strikeouts a he's six, seven <laugh> right. So he's got a massive strikes on it. If it goes from letters to kneecaps, that's like four and a half feet, maybe more
Speaker 1 00:34:33 So you're saying he should shrink.
Speaker 2 00:34:36 I'm just saying that pictures are taking advantage of what they can take advantage of. Right? If I'm a lefty pitcher and I'm facing a six foot seven left-handed batter, where am I going? I'm going inside and then I'm going off the plate, cuz it's gonna look like it's on the plate when you're a lefty batter facing a lefty pitcher. It's not that hard to see why he's striking out 52% of the time against lefties. Does he need to learn plate discipline? Yes, but that's kind of been the thing for him throughout his entire minor league career was, Hey, this guy would be great if he could just learn some plate discipline, um, which, you know, he was starting to do it. Um, you know, in the upper minors recently the power in the steels. Great, perfect. Keep 'em where they are. You cut down the strikeout rate, the batting average will pop cuz it's a 2 67 Babi and a 2 73 WOBA even with a sub 200 batting average. So I'm, I'm not that concerned. Let the guy take his, his, uh, you know, strikeouts now in games that apologies to you Colby don't matter. Mm-hmm <affirmative> um, and he'll learn plate discipline and you know, be good going forward.
Speaker 1 00:35:54 And then James, I mean, we talked about the strikeout. That's going to be there, but 20, 23, is that when he goes 40, 40 with a 300 plus batting average, what, what are we thinking with crews? What's your level of concern should be zero, but where, where are you at?
Speaker 3 00:36:09 How do I follow that up? What do
Speaker 1 00:36:11 I do? Uh, you nod and agree. Uh,
Speaker 3 00:36:14 I mean, yeah, 20, 22 is dead. You drop 'em um, I, I mean, not like, obviously re-draft you drop him. You're not he's I don't see how you, I mean, I guess shorts up is so bad. You, I guess you can hold onto him and you just only play him when he is facing a righty. Yeah. 20, 23 will be fine. Um, I, I think we can get away with the strikeout rate of some guys, but like obviously 52% K rate is concerning. I mean, look what happened, you know, different type of prospect, but look what happened to a kil Bedu this year couldn't hit lefties to save his life, uh, struck out a whole bunch against him, spent three fourths of the season thus far in AAA. So, um, he needs to put the ball in play a little bit more, um, before I'm like fully convinced he's like a long term fantasy asset. Um, now everything he does is cool and I love watching him do the cool things, but he just doesn't do cool things enough. Right. Other than be cool, cuz he is so cool. He needs to do more cool things. Uh, and that's my piece and I'm sticking to it.
Speaker 1 00:37:24 So are you saying that he'll only go 30, 30 with a two 80 batting average next year instead of 40 40 with a 300?
Speaker 3 00:37:29 Yeah. I'm thinking it's more maybe even like 35 35 and like 2 85, you know, something around those, something around that think.
Speaker 2 00:37:38 So
Speaker 1 00:37:39 Colby's gonna be a little low
Speaker 2 00:37:40 The rest of the day. <laugh>
Speaker 1 00:37:43 I don't, I don't know what you mean by that. I'm completely reasonable and rational all
Speaker 2 00:37:47 The time. He just has to try to spend the rest of the day calming himself down.
Speaker 1 00:37:50 Agreed. Yeah. I mean, I mean, yeah, I mean, if he just gets that strike out from 37.9%, like 37.8%, it's over like the league's done. Like he's gonna go nuclear. That is what is going to happen. And hopefully the first base first baseman can get some extra padding in that glove cuz with the missiles he throws over, but you're right James, he does cool stuff. It's just how consistent can we get the cool stuff? Right. I think that's consistency is gonna be the big thing that he'll work on. But I mean the, I guess the beauty of the whole situation is the guy's only 23, right. You know, so plenty of room to grow, but that is everything that we had for this week's addition of the fantasy on fantasy baseball podcast. So of course I mentioned it earlier, fantasy baseball's still going on, but if you do have some fantasy football drafts mixed in between your MLB DFS contests and all of the MLB and fantasy baseball research you're doing the draft guide is free.
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