Episode Transcript
Speaker 3 00:00:08 And welcome into the newest edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast. I'm your host Colby Conway at Colby R Conway on Twitter. And before I introduce my guest here, a typical salwar of the program, Matt sells little under the weather, recovering his voice said he had a little bit of a cold. I think he just might have been yelling at the TV a little bit too much for baseball over the weekend, or if there were any NASCAR related events, but a loss he's at the sales man on Twitter, send him a tweet, let him know you're thinking about and hope he gets better. And hopefully we'll hear his charming voice on next week's episode. But with me as always still no update on the Twitter handle James Grande at the underscore real underscore Grande. So, James, how is everything going for you?
Speaker 4 00:00:52 Everything's good man. Um, another week, um, another more disappointing losses for the Yankees two to Oakland. So that's absolutely brutal. Uh, or two the athletics. I don't know what I said. I might have said to the Yankees, which they might be beating themselves too. Um, but hopefully Matt feels better next week and you know what? Take a week off Matt, because next week, September call up Matt, you know, Matt's like, this is Matt's favorite time of the year, September 1st. Some people like Christmas, um, you know, people are normal like Christmas. Some people like Thanksgiving. Um, Matt sell's favorite day of the year is September 1st when, when the call ups are here. So, uh, next week Matt should be back with the, with the voice rested and, and all the prospects being called up. So, um, yeah, everything's good on my end. And, uh, looking forward to getting through this podcast with you brother.
Speaker 3 00:01:40 Yeah. And pretty much what we won't hear from Matt this week will be made up for in more than what we lost this week. Uh, you may not hear me talk all that much next week, other than basically just, uh, serving up Matt on players. And like, it could just be like a Matt insert prospect, please talk about him and then Matt's gonna go on a tangent and then I'll say that sounds great. Should we add more teams? And then we're gonna go right onto the next one. And Matt will get to shine next week with the September call. We do have a couple prospect notes here that we'll talk about here today and we'll make sure we get Matt's take on the next week as well. Okay. But before we talk about prospects, let's just jump right into it. Uh, Pittsburgh, or I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 00:02:17 Philly was able to welcome back. Bryce Harper, one door opens one door, closes the door on Zach Wheeler. Unfortunately had to close in this case as he heads to the IL with, I believe it was forearm 10 ditis I, they lost me at forearm. Whenever I hear forearm. I know what the first thing I worry about long term is going to be. Um, is there anything else that I've missed on Wheeler? I don't believe he's been ruled out for the season yet, but it's something that I'm, this has enough with the, the limited number of games that are left in the season for fantasy purposes. He might just be all about done for us this season.
Speaker 4 00:02:51 I mean, it's interesting what he was saying, how he was saying he was ready to pitch that day that he was scratched and then ultimately placed on the IL. Um, he said, he's been dealing like he's dealt with this a lot outta his career, which is,
Speaker 3 00:03:07 That's not good,
Speaker 4 00:03:08 Uh, very concerning. Um, but it, everything that he was also saying, like makes it seem like he's gonna pitch again. Um, now this injury doesn't sound like it's a nester Cortez. Like just, you know, take some time off. It seems like a legitimate thing, but yeah, who knows how long he's gonna be out? There's not a lot of time left in the air. This is, we have about a month left. Um, so like I'm not dropping him right now. It, but, um, if I don't have any available IL spots, then you know, you gotta do what you gotta do at this point. You can't just hold on to someone that may or may not pitch again this year. So I agree. It's if you have, if you have the IL spot, I think it's, he's a worthy hold. If you don't. I think you gotta send a packing because at this point, like if you're fighting for your playoff life or, um, you know, you need a regular season title is on the line and, and money's involved. I mean drop Wheeler if, if you can't hold onto him. So
Speaker 3 00:04:16 The hope apparently they, the, everyone is very confident that he's going to make his start on September 6th, which comes against the Marons, which would be a good matchup. There's just, there's a lot at play here. Like he's gonna miss a little bit of time, right? Elbows, a little sore, a lot of questions. You're right. If you have the IL spots, there's no need to drop 'em. But at this point, like I know one of my home leagues, um, this week as we're recording is my last regular season game before the playoffs, right? If you're gonna come into these games where every spot matters, holding Zach Wheeler for the hopes of getting him for your next matchup could be, you know, it could be the equivalent of the old, like when I used to play travel baseball, we used to, you wanted to save your ACE for the championship game.
Speaker 3 00:04:57 Yep. Well, if you don't win the semifinal game, it doesn't mean anything. Yep. Now you just saved him so that he can throw the first game on Saturday of the following week when it doesn't mean anything. Yeah. So that's kind of what it seems like to me, if you have the IL spot. Yeah. Go ahead and do it. And if you have other bad players on your IL, who aren't gonna make an impact in the week, that lies ahead, drop them, move Wheeler there. But I just, I don't want to be in a spot where I'm forced to either have to drop 'em or hold them with the hopes that I can advance without a dominant start from Wheeler, with my team. So it's, it's tough at this point of the season, you're going to see bigger name players drop in your fantasy leagues, because again, we're down to what 35 ish games for most teams, the rest of the way.
Speaker 3 00:05:35 So we'll have to see what happens there. But in New York, you kind of talked about one nester. Cortez has gone to the injured list. It's it's tough. Actually. Lemme say this, it's not tough. It's Murphy's law. When you're a team that lacks pitching and you trade away pitching <laugh> the pitching that you have is inevitably going to deal with some hardships. So, you know, since the July 1st, James and time has been abused by the long ball. Now, nester Cortez is injured. We're gonna get to the bullpen in a second because I don't even know what you make of that. But nester, Cortez, injured list due to a groin strain, hoping he'll be able to return in September without a long stint on the injured list. What says you James?
Speaker 4 00:06:14 Oh, the injury's fabricated bull bull poop.
Speaker 3 00:06:18 It's a Dodger Phantom injury. Is that what we're talking
Speaker 4 00:06:21 About? It's, it's a hundred percent of Phantom injury. Um, if you listen to Aaron Boone speak, if you listen to nester, Cortez speak, um, if you watched nester Cortez, the day he was placed on the IL play catch and run in the outfield with Aaron Boone, um, it's a with no limp, he's not walking around in any capacity, like he's hurt. It's a Phantom injury. Um, the Yankees have openly talked about how they're worried about his innings and how this is he's already, you know, capped the most he's ever thrown. This is an absolute 15 day stretch of rest. Um, I'm sure he's still getting his work. I don't believe this latest comment from Aaron boon saying, oh, we were hopeful. He, he comes back on the 15th day, mark, like he's going to come back on the 15th, 15th day, mark. Not concerned at all, but you know, it obviously hurts our fantasy teams because like, we were just talking about Wheeler.
Speaker 4 00:07:20 If you're in a playoff position and need a start, you know, you have a tough dilemma on your hands. Um, I like what we saw from nester Cortez. I mean, he had one of his best starts in quite a while prior to this IL stint. Um, I'm not worried about him long term. The only thing we are really worrying about is, is does he have fantasy value for the rest of the year? I mean, what are you gonna get at him? Two, three starts max. So that's something that you have to ask yourself. Is it worth keeping nester for two to three starts? Because that's what I assume he makes after he's back from the 15 day.
Speaker 3 00:08:01 And again, if you're in a, obviously not in a roto format, but if you're in a matchup based setup, you know, great, you might be able to get him back for maybe the championship game, but he'd be coming off missing multiple weeks and that's assuming you to make it to the big dance. So, yeah. Um, he might end up being dropped quick update on the Yankees bullpen, uh, looks like clay Holmes is, uh, had a bullpen session. Looks like he could be joining the RO or the, the rotation. The, whenever I think of Yankees in pitching, it's just rotation. That's the first thing my mind goes to. I don't even think about the bullpen. Yes, but home through live, live BP, getting closer should be ready to go here in no time. And then a role is Chapman. He'd been hanging out with Chris, Chris scenes with these like unfortunate injuries that come about, but don't get me wrong.
Speaker 3 00:08:46 I love the tattoo portrait of his, of, I believe it's his sister on his left calf love the, the sentiment there, but infection. He's now going to miss some time getting some antibiotics. And it's the, the loss of Chapman at this point in the season in 2022 has a much less of a sizable impact compared to like th two or three years ago when Chapman was in his prime. It was just a legit ninth in dude. I mean, he's now throwing seventh inning. Like it's, he's just an arm in that bullpen at this point. He's not a difference maker, but he's gonna be out for a little bit. Um, does this actually make the Yankees bullpen better perhaps that he maybe might not be pitching for a little bit and obviously Holmes might be making his return if he can get back to where he was, uh, prior to the injury?
Speaker 4 00:09:29 Yeah, I mean, it definitely, I mean, seeing Chapman in games is these days are spurtle, it's watch through your fingers, right? Like your, you got your left eye covered and your right eye, right eye looking through your middle finger and your ring finger. Um, yeah, he stinks. Uh, hopefully homes can recapture, hopefully homes can recapture for him. It stinks to see Zach Britain was removed from his rehab outing, uh, over the weekend. So just another blow to the Yankees bullpen. Um, but yeah, I mean, Chapman, his obviously, you know, when you throw a hundred and you have a slider that you can control 50% of the time, like one day it's gonna catch up to you and it's finally caught up to him. So, um, this probably makes the bullpen better. We probably see, you know, more Travino, more fro and hopefully prime, uh, clay homes. Like we got Yankees clay homes in the beginning of the year, and then we got pirates clay homes before the injury. We, we need Yankees, clay homes back not pirates clay homes.
Speaker 3 00:10:32 Yeah. And then in that same division, I don't, I don't know what else to say with Baltimore than they just continue to get it done. You know, Kyle Brads has made good stars, even Dean Kramer, who I try to pick against in DFS all the time, or at least I was, I've learned since learned my lesson, but he's even been serviceable and the offense looks good. They have a couple top prospects, um, you know, gunner Henderson beam, the main one. So Baltimore keeps it going they're right in the thick of things in the wild card race there in the American league. So we talked about it before, but as each passing week comes, Baltimore just continues to get it done. Six and four in their last 10. So let me give you two. Yes or no questions. Does Baltimore sneak into the playoffs and do we see gunner Henderson before seasons end?
Speaker 4 00:11:18 I, I am going to, I'll start with the second one. I'm gonna go. No. And I think the general manager's comments are a little weird if they were gonna be called or if they were gonna call him up, um, calling him like the youngest player in AAA, but that doesn't mean he wants to take away from what he's doing in AAA, but he's still the youngest player there. Um, so I'll go, no, he doesn't get called up, even though he's raking, they're a game and a half behind Toronto, who is, I, I guess, percentage points. So Seattle has the final spot. They're two and a half back of Seattle. I'm gonna go no on both. Cause I don't think Toronto's offense is gonna be this bad can, like, they've been pretty bad lately. Um, I think Seattle's offense will show up a little more than they have. Um, so I'm gonna go, no, they're not gonna get past the raise. They're not gonna get, they'll probably finish right where they are currently. Um, but I don't think that they make the playoffs and I don't think Henderson gets called up
Speaker 3 00:12:29 And then fantasy baseball managers. I mean, what Adly Rushman has done after the first little bit after his call up, um, obviously there's some growing pains there, but I mean, he's been just, I don't even know how he's phenomenal, I guess is the only word that I can come up with. You just look at his numbers and if it weren't for the, the struggles that he had early, early on when he first got called up and everybody was all really, you know, kind of worried about him, but when we're looking at his numbers, just from July 1st, I'm refreshing my page here to make sure I'm accurate. But since July 1st as a catcher, remind you two 70 to average, 3 86, Wobo 1 57 WRC plus five. Oh, runs two stolen bases. I mean he, where, where does he go behind the dish in drafts next year? He's gonna be young. You gotta think Baltimore is gonna, I think that outlook on them is going to be more positive heading into next year. If we see any of those prospects come up, I mean, how high can, Rushman go in drafts next year as a premier offensive talent at a position that lacks, you know, well, high end options and really depth if we're being honest.
Speaker 4 00:13:36 I mean, is it crazy to say that he's the top option on the board
Speaker 3 00:13:40 At the, I don't think so. I mean, we look, I mean, just think about if we go back, just even looking at the guys coming into this year behind the dish, Sal Perez is not gonna be there. No real Muto you have a case that's he's gonna be there. That's if they will. Smith, Dalton, vaso Wilson Contreras, my guy Wilson, um, Alejandro Kirk, I mean, Rushman was going, looking at, uh, some NFC ADP data, looking at it here from October 20, 21 all the way through this season and such, I mean, there were times in drafts, he was going right around the top 10 without ever even playing a major league baseball game right now he has that underneath his belt. I mean, I would, I'd say, he's go, he's gonna go on the top five at least. And you know, he might not be five, four or three in that scenario.
Speaker 4 00:14:24 Yeah. I mean, I think so. He, like you said, he was what aggregate he was the 13th catcher off the board without knowing that he wasn't even gonna start the year in the major leagues.
Speaker 3 00:14:35 Yes. I mean, if we looked from October 1st, 20, 21, let me get back here to right before the season. We'll just put April 1st just to kind of ballpark it there and make for a nice number from October 1st, 2021 to April 1st, 2022 Adley Rushman was a 10th catcher off the board with no guarantee of being up
Speaker 4 00:14:54 For opening zero, zero. I mean, he's, the SOS was a top 30 pick this year. Yep. On almost all platforms, right? He was 26 on N FBC. Mm-hmm
Speaker 3 00:15:07 <affirmative>
Speaker 4 00:15:08 I mean, he's gone right there. That's that's you probably put him in that Sal range. So what is that early third? You could probably see him sneak in the late second. I mean, he's going to be even with his bad start. And even though Julio Rodriguez has been tremendous, like there's people like, oh, could Richmond steal the hail rookie of the year away? It's like, hold on a second. I mean, he really could because he is been that good. So yeah, I think he's the number one catcher off the board probably early second or late second, early third, just like we saw Salvador Perez in, um, 2021 drafts.
Speaker 3 00:15:46 Yep. And of qualified catchers since, since July 1st Rushman is, you know, I said the five arm runs two stolen bases, but his 1 57 WRC plus is third trailing, only JT real Muto and Sean Murphy. And his 2.7 war is tied for second behind the dish again behind R Muto and Sean Murphy. So if, if we're looking at it now, I think knowing me, I might still lean RAL Muto over Ruman next season. Um, but after that, I mean, even in, even with Rio MUTOs case, you can make a legitimate argument for Ruman to be perhaps a top catch. Like it's not outlandish. It's not something where I'm coming in here being like, well, you know, I'm looking here since July 1st and I know Wilson terrace is stunk or MJ, Melinda. So they're gonna be my top guy. Right. It's like, I love Contreras perhaps more than others, at least in this season I did, but it's, Rushman real, Muto two RS behind the plate are gonna be probably the two catchers off the board next year. But yeah,
Speaker 4 00:16:43 I think it's, I think it's interesting too real Muto was quite bad to begin the year. Uh, he's just been great in the second half. So, um, you know, much like Ruman, like they both have like slow starts and then have been super good. So, uh, I, I don't disagree. I think there's a case for both, but I do think there're probably one, one, a one B and whatever way you want to dress that up.
Speaker 3 00:17:08 And the recency bias with how real muso, if the season like were to end today, you know, we move those quote end of year push is going to be something that people are gonna think. And I mean, just using that same July 1st date trio MuTu is a 3 29 batting average with nine home runs and six stolen bases behind the plate. That's just, that's gonna get it done no matter how you look at it. Um, another prospect talk about Corbin. Carro gets the call for the dime back. He was a consensus top prospect, um, coming in as minor league numbers, like most are just outlandish. Yep. So he deserved, you know, all the pedigree with it. But this year in the minors across, you know, the, the leagues there he is 3 0 7 24 homers 31 stolen bases. He's done that across a, a couple different campaigns, but let's, we'll mostly look just at triple a here 33 games.
Speaker 3 00:17:53 There are 2 87 average with seven homers and 11 stolen cases and only 33 games. Um, elite prospect. Arizona's gotta play him every day. There's no point to call him up at this point of the season and not play 'em. So he's going to play every day. Um, obviously we talked about it before the must add label is always tough, cuz I'm not gonna add as much as I like Carol as a prospect. I'm not gonna add him if it means dropping Mike trout or somebody because I have a loaded outfield, but if you need the help, he can impact your fantasy team across all five categories for the final month of the season. Absolutely.
Speaker 4 00:18:26 Yeah. And any capacity that you need outfield help. He's a must dad. How about that in any, in any way, shape or form, you need outfield depth. He is a must dad, but you're like you said, you're not dropping a top 25 30 guy for him, but um, I mean there's, there's, if he's gonna come up and hit home runs and steal bases at the clip that he's doing, you know, granted, we always, I feel like sometimes the PCL could, uh, you know, it definitely enhances people's numbers, but I mean, he's not, he's a top 20 prospect across the board for a reason, so,
Speaker 3 00:19:02 Yep. And like I said, all five categories, that is how he he's gonna get it done. That's is gonna be his claim to fame in another outfield in Arizona, I'm interested. Uh, we might have to add him to this little segment. We're gonna come up here at the end, but Jake McCarthy has been really good now in deeper leagues, he might already be added, but I even think in shower forms, it might be time to consider him 68 games played this year. Four homers fine does have 12 stolen bases. He's hitting 2 91. He does have a 3 58 bait, which is given him a little bit of a boost there. Um, and then his 2 98 expected WOBA is drastically different than his 3 44 WOBA. But one 19 WRC plus indicates he is better than league average in terms of that, he's a guy that can get it done. He has no significant split advantage or disadvantage hitting 300 against lefties and 2 89 against righties. Um, Carol's coming up. That's gonna be another guy that's gotta play. So we'll see what happens to McCarthy's at bats, but you gotta think, and even perhaps now in shallower formats, if you need speed, McCarthy's a guy that should probably be owned in most formats.
Speaker 4 00:20:02 Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt. Uh, I've picked him up in a few leagues multiple weeks ago. Um, as soon as they traded David Paralta, I was on McCarthy, um, 32 games, 10 stolen bases in the second half of the year. Um, and that's after 32 first half games, only two stolen bases. So now that he's given the opportunity hitting 3 33, since the break Colby, like the guy is doing everything, he's not a very powerful guy. He's not going to help you. In terms of home run ratios does have eight doubles since the break. So like, you know, he does have some, you know, ability to hit the ball on the gap. Uh, but his bread and butter is the speed. And if he's also going to give you a 300 plus average, yeah, I think in all formats that you need speed and you need help in ratios in terms of average.
Speaker 4 00:20:49 I think McCarthy's great pickup. I'm, I'm interested, like if he's gonna play this good, they're not gonna bench him. Like even with Corman Carroll getting called up, like they'll figure it out. I know, um, bar shows there and Alex Thomas and stuff, but I mean, I just can't see them bitching guy that is just, you know, hitting 300 and giving them whatever they need offensively, like in terms of, you know, getting on base, getting to second, putting himself in square position every time he's on base. So, um, yeah. I love Jake McCarthy and she formats. I love him in all formats.
Speaker 3 00:21:24 Yep. And that speed is legit in Kansas city. Brady singers really turned it around. I know, I think I like him coming in of the year, a little bit of a slower start, um, and kind of just went through the summer months, but he's really, really picked it up of late. If you just go back to just say the start of July, it just seems like the pretty good timeframe here. But in 10 starts since, uh, the calendar has flipped to July 10.1 K per nine, home run per nine is down underneath one, which is great. 2.14 era and a F and XIP at three or in the low threes, absolutely phenomenal for Kansas city fantasy managers who picked them up down the stretch here have enjoyed it as he has at least five strikeouts and all, but one of his last, uh, 10 starts looking at it.
Speaker 3 00:22:06 Here are the couple sevens and a nine even mixed in there. So Brady singer has really emerged for Kansas city. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him as a, you know, 26 year old can Kansas city put enough around him to help him out, you know, moving forward cuz despite the 10 starts, he is four and one, but he, that offenses doesn't do much for him. He doesn't get a ton of help. So what can happen with him down the rest of the way he's gonna be good for strikeout. He should continue to pitch well, but more so looking into 20, 23, what can we expect with singer?
Speaker 4 00:22:38 I mean the stuff is there, the stuff's always been there. He's just putting it together now. Still gonna be 26 years old going into next season. Um, I like him quite a bit. If the, if the strikeout stuff is gonna continue, I mean 29% care rates since the break, if that's going to be something that he can hang his head on. Um, and he's been more dominant against lefties too, which, um, I mean keep stockpiling lefties against him and he's gonna keep mowing him down. I think there's a lot to like next year, um, in terms of like how to assess him. I mean, he's not going to like you don't, you're not gonna need to take him in the first hundred picks of next year's draft. But um, I could see him being what a top 50 pitcher next year. I mean, coming into the year, the 50th pitcher drafted this year was Logan Gilbert. Right? That was, that was your S P 50, uh, in or, well, I guess that's including reliever. So just pitcher 50. I mean, if he's no, I could see myself taking Brady singer. You can get Brady singer after that most likely. I mean, sign me up. A lot of strike got upside. He's gonna be, you know, he's gonna be for me Colby, he's gonna be the 20, 23 version of what I wanted Patrick Sandoval to be in pat in 2022.
Speaker 3 00:23:52 I, yeah, I mean I can, I can definitely see that one thing I did find interesting with singer. When you look at his pitch usage this year is going from June, he's used a slider a little bit more. The change ups dropped a little bit. He partly throws his four SMER at all. He's just sinker slider change up and just the development there. He, he always needed that third pitch. That was pretty much it. When you look even back in 2021, sinker and slider was 96% of what he threw, right? So just adding another, adding a tertiary option in there is what he needed. And that's, I, I don't wanna say fueled it, but it's, it's definitely noticeable here in the later months of the season. Uh, one thing I do wanna add, uh, that actually popped up in our discord, shout out Pete Cole for the update here, but Tony goon was scratched from Monday starts. He goes to the, I L Dodgers are known for Phantom stents. However, I hate the term forum, which I've already said with Zach weer. Right. Um, and Golin has been nothing short of good and lucky for the Dodgers this season. I, you know, he's been good. Don't give me long,
Speaker 4 00:24:55 16 and one Colby.
Speaker 3 00:24:56 He, yeah, for sure. He's been good. I mean, there's definitely some elements of luck involved sometimes better to be lucky than good. He has been good. Um, you don't trip and fall into a 16 and one record I'll give 'em that. Um, but he's on the IL now and we've talked about the Dodgers so much in terms of their pitching staff. I don't know how many more injuries they can endure. They're still making the post season. That's not really a question at this point, they're going to be fine. But once we get in to October, do the Dodgers have enough horses to make a run at this thing?
Speaker 4 00:25:24 So I find this interesting because he threw 77 pitches, his last game and they were up seven one and he got through five innings against Milwaukee of just one run baseball. And they were just like, they just pulled the plug and I think you're spot on. I think it's completely in innings thing. Um, I almost think there's no question about it because there's been no history. I mean, I know he has a history of injury, so I guess that's scary. And I know the forearm is also scary. Um, but this year he is been since, you know, he's been in good form, just, just feels weird. Just feels like a Phantom injury. I think if he's back, um, by the time the playoffs come around, I do think they have enough. We've talked about it a bunch. Like they're going to get Kershaw back for the post season, albeit you know, in whatever limitations he made under.
Speaker 4 00:26:19 Um, but if him, Tyler Anderson continue to pitch well, Dustin may, you know, in the back pocket. Um, and then Julio rise, they have been, they have all been super good. So, um, they're obviously it's gonna be tough to like match up against the Mets. So hopefully, you know, if they're sitting there thinking like let's not match up with the Mets, cuz that is not fun, but you know, as long as Godland comes back and this is, you know, just either fatigue or just a Phantom injury, I think they should be fine, but it does probably hinge on Goslin's health going into next year as well.
Speaker 3 00:26:55 And it's looking at the numbers like back in 2018 in the minors, he did log about 128 innings, 2019. It was 81, 20 20, just 46, but that's a shortened season. And then 2021, including trips in the minors and stuff, we're only looking at 67 innings pitch last year, give or take, you know, adding some of the extra outs and stuff. So say right around 70 and then in the, let's see in the postseason, he added four. So we're talking mid low to mid seventies and innings last year at war up to 128 this year. Right. Which is a career high at this point in terms of, uh, major league workload. Um, I think there definitely could be. Here's the thing I think both of the following statements can be true in that it's a reason to rest him a little bit and that there is maybe something maybe a little twinge in the forearm.
Speaker 3 00:27:41 Right? I think both statements can be true, but the Dodgers have to get arms healthy for October. That's what comes down to that is what the, that's what they're doing here. Um, James, let's talk a little bit here about a little players to add or not to add a little homage to Shakespeare there with, with the, to add or not to add with switching out a little bit of the words there. So let's start with your boy Lars that you love to talk of. I think I see you talking about him in the disc, the discord a good bit every now and then, um, 24 year old outfielder in St. Louis. I know personally when I see a right-hander on the mound, he is an interesting play for DFS purposes, but your fantasy baseball managers, obviously daily setups, I think I know the answer here, but tell me about the St. Louis' outfielder who goes by Lars?
Speaker 4 00:28:27 Yeah, I mean, he's an ad. Um, he has been tremendous in the second half of the year in the power department. He does have a little speed, two stolen bases since the break too. Um, I mean 9 61 ops 2 57, ISO 4 0 9 WOBA they started hitting him lead off against, uh, right-handed pitchers. There's really nothing to dislike. You know, anyone hitting in front of gold Schmidt and ATO are going to score if they reach base. So he's going to help you in the runs department, he's going to drive in his own runs, cuz he's a super powerful dude against right-handed pitching specifically all nine home runs hitting against righties is here. Um, and he has some speed too. So yeah, I think Lars Newbar is a 100% ad. Um, again, must add is tricky, but if you need outfield, there's no question about it. Uh, and he's been, he's probably the most popular ad right now in the outfield. So, um, I, I think no doubt down the stretch run LAR Newbar one of the best pickups on the wave wire right now.
Speaker 3 00:29:32 He's one of them. I, I, if I had to guess Corbin, carros probably going to be fair cause you know how everyone is with their prospects. Yep. They, they get all giddy like Matt sells does. Yeah. But's two different
Speaker 4 00:29:43 Things. True. But those are two D things true. Those are two different things. The, the best pickup and the, the person, the people want the most two different things. Um, and I'm not saying Carol won't be better than Newbar, but we're seeing the major league production from new bar right now. Whereas we have to see it from Carol. Like we have no evidence that he won't be Jared ke. Right. Um, so you know, it take, take, and one is going into Arizona's offense, which has not seen Lewis offense. So, um, Newbar is definitely gonna get more pictures to hit. I'll say that.
Speaker 3 00:30:15 Yep. And then the only thing I'm just gonna throw this out about Newbar it's Nope. It's no knock on him. You know, he doesn't make the schedule. I just, he hasn't faced Pittsburgh yet.
Speaker 4 00:30:25 <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:30:26 I don't know if we can get a full evaluation until we see him. I believe. I think I remember Matt saying that St. Louis and Pittsburgh have a couple games down the stretch. So I think that'll
Speaker 4 00:30:33 Be the final six games. Right? Cause we were talking about the pool holes, the pool holes thing. It's like the first, the last three are in Pittsburgh. The three before, before that are in St. Louis.
Speaker 3 00:30:43 Yeah. I'll I'm gonna, I'm gonna have to reserve my judgment until I see it then. Um, but we'll see. No, he definitely, definitely must have, especially if your league does daily moves where you can just swap him in and out, depending on the, uh, the handedness of the opposing starter, sign me up for Newbar against righties and Tampa bay 27 year old Harold Ramirez as his, his percentile rankings on, uh, baseball. Savan for stack as are just, I love it. We have a, a second percentile chase rate, however, <laugh>, we're talking 92nd percentile max, exit velocity, 95th percentile expected batting average in somehow with the second percentile chase rate. We're we're talking about a 90th percentile strikeout rate that is phenomenal. I mean, that's just, you know, I'm gonna leave the zone all the time, but I know I'm not gonna strike down.
Speaker 3 00:31:32 I'm just, I'm just, I'm just that dude or he's him, I guess, is the people are saying now, uh, the young kids out there trying to stay hip, but just a 14 and a half percent strikeout rate expect batting hours of 2 80, 80 hitting 3 25. You know, the home runs stolen bases. You're not getting a ton there, but we've, you know, for me, he's an ad because we've seen it where you can use guys like him, even if you only benefit from the batting average, you know, somebody else on your team could be hitting two 50, but be a power and stolen base machine use Ramirez as 3 25 batting average, boom, you now have yourself an elite fantasy player. So for me, Ramirez is an ad. What about for
Speaker 4 00:32:08 You? Same? Um, there, I mean, he can't do you wrong if he's gonna continue to, um, hit 300 plus every single month, every year, this year Colby, I think this has just been like, so under the radar, except for may, he's hit over 3 0 8. Um, he hit 400 in July. He hit 360 9 in nice in June. Um, and 3 0 9 in, in 3 0 8 so far in August. Like again, you, you mentioned it. He's not going to hit for power. Um, but he is hitting in the middle of a surging team. Um, Tampa bay just, just gets these guys by the truckload. Just let me Billy Bean like the Billy Bean method to every degree. Um, he, they just Yandy Diaz. Harold, they're gonna hit 300. They're not gonna hit for a lot of power and they're gonna help you win baseball games and they're gonna help you win fantasy games. Like you said, he's going to continue to help out your, in the average department. So yeah, I think Harold's Ramirez is definitely an ad and a lot of formats he's gonna be, he's gonna have the first base N outfield eligibility too.
Speaker 3 00:33:17 Yeah. And that's the thing. The, you can't bank on the power production, even going back to 2019, he has a ground ball rate of at least 50% every season. Yep. He's gonna run into some home runs every now and again, like in 2019 we saw him get a double digit that's best case scenario at a couple stolen bases. He's his main fantasy value comes from his batting average. That's just what it is going to be with him. We have TJ Friel in, I believe it is. Yep. 27 year old Cincinnati looking at him here on the year two home runs, six stolen bases across 41 games, 2 52 batting average. Yeah. You know, so be it. But he is in great American, small park. So home contests are going to boost him up a good bit. And when you look at his splits, uh, it looks like, I mean, he is got a good average against lefties, but his exposure to them has been kind of limited there. Yeah. So what do we make of Freele in Cincinnati? Obviously the ballpark is a huge boost.
Speaker 4 00:34:08 Yeah. I mean, I think what draws me to him is kind of, um, we're not the power seems a little fluky. Um, I know there's not a lot of home runs on the year. He's only hit two in the last this year and they've both come in the last 10 games. Um, but he has a lot of speed and we're getting that right now. I mean, just over the last 10 games, he has six extra base hits, two doubles, two triples, two home runs, and he has a stolen base over that span as well. He gets to hit in great American from the, he hits, I think from the left side. Yeah. I, I thought he was a switch chair for a second, but he hits from the left side. Um, I love that. Um, now am I going out and dropping like anyone? Just anyone for him?
Speaker 4 00:34:53 No, but if you're really desperate for outfield help, I think Frito is an ad. Um, just based on his, I mean 3 94 in the second half. So far Colby, um, 1200 ops over that span 500 WOBA I get it, 12 game sample, whatever it is, 12 game sample. And then on top of that, you, you get to play your home games in great American. Um, I think you could do worse. He's an ad, he's a French ad for me. Um, but someone who can provide some speed and, and does have a little pop as well.
Speaker 3 00:35:24 And then in Detroit, kind of similar to Brady singers really come on here late. The offense is not going to put him in great spots for, you know, wins. When you look at some of his starts here, like against the angels, you know, one earned run over seven innings and he gets stuck with a loss. You know, they're just, they're, it's gonna happen with Matt Manning in Detroit. But since coming back here over his last five starts, we're talking about 2.4 era. The F is in the low threes xFi up in the fours, but that is what it is. It doesn't generate a ton of ground balls, but he does have an 8.1 K per nine during that stretch 2 91 BA isn't too bad there. And when you look at his plate, discipline marks on fan grafts, this is, these are the numbers I love looking at 33.3% O swing rate.
Speaker 3 00:36:06 So third of the time generating swings outta the zone with a 12.2% swinging strike rate. That's how you project the, you know, strikeout viability, you know, if someone has a, a lofty strike, they don't get many swings and misses. Eventually it's gonna come down, you gotta miss bats to get strikeouts. That's just, that's the name of the game and Manning can and has done that. He's only 24 years old, still growing into it. We've seen a little bit of him at the big league level. Um, I would probably say most would categorize it as a little bit of hit or miss. Yep. Um, is probably the easiest way to describe it. I mean, 20, 21, there was just no strikeout. Yeah. More hits that was an outlier
Speaker 4 00:36:41 Or definitely more missed than, uh,
Speaker 3 00:36:42 Yeah. Yeah. More miss. But this year is the first kind of inkling of the hits that we are seeing. Um, still only a 7.3 Cape down in the year, but like I said, it's ticked up a little bit of late. So down the stretch, can Matt Manning be a, a help to fantasy teams in need a pitching?
Speaker 4 00:36:58 Yep. And I think, I mean that the K rates watered down by the beginning of the year, I mean, three, three appearances prior to the injury or two appearances rather rather two strikeouts in each. Like, um, since coming back, he had the one strikeout game against Minnesota, but 7, 5, 6, 8 in the last four. Um, and you mentioned only one of those games have been poor against the white Sox for so, and, and the ballpark in, in, uh, Chicago has been very hit or friendly this year. So yeah, I think Manning can help. I, I mean, guys, go to your waiver wire and look at starting pitching. It's bleak everywhere. It's terrible. Um, there's no reason Detroit's not gonna give Manning the, the ball every fifth day. And as you mentioned, he's generating 11.5% swinging strike rate. You love to see that. Um, and you know, coincidentally, the strikeouts are on the rise. So, um, yeah, I think Manning is an ad, uh, especially just given how poor pitching is the rest of the year. And there's no reason, not that he won't get what another five starts this year. I mean, um, if he continues to pitch this way, five plus strikeouts each, you know, in the last five starts of the year, I mean that can, that can really help going, uh, into your post-season run.
Speaker 3 00:38:10 And then as we wrap up this week's episode of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast, a quick level of concern, but I'm gonna switch it up a little bit on you. So Justin Verlander left his last start with right calf discomfort. Obviously the Astros need him for their hopeful push in the postseason. And Ronald O Cooney's been dealing with sharp pains in his right knee. That was surgically repaired. Uh, he says, he's confident that he'll be in the lineup, whereas Verlander, the status is still a little mum there. So between the two of them from a fantasy perspective, uh, whom has a higher level of concern in your mind, is it going to be Verlander with the calf or a Kuya with the sharp pains in the knee?
Speaker 4 00:38:50 I'm gonna go Verlander. Um, because the expectation is a Kuya is gonna return. Whereas like we still don't know about Berlin and he's a lot older. <laugh> like no offense to Berlin, but I mean he's 39 and a Kuya is expected to be in the lineup on Tuesday. So we're gonna get another day off Monday. Um, so I'll go Verlander until, but it's like kind of in the air until we know more. I just feel like by default, I have to go just from Verlander.
Speaker 3 00:39:24 I am as well. And I think that plays out in reality as well. The, yep. I think it's unfair to say that the, the Braves don't need a Kuya cuz they do, but if we're gonna go comparison in a vacuum, I think the Braves can do it without a Kuya. I do not think the ashes can do it without Verlander.
Speaker 4 00:39:40 They, they did it last year
Speaker 3 00:39:41 And exactly the Braves they did that they did. So I think that just rings true there again. So I think that is the move there. I think Verlander is the more worrisome for the time being till we get some more information there, but you know, that is gonna be it for this week's edition head over to fantasy alarm.com for all the baseball content. The draft guide is free. Check that out. We have all so much good content coming out there and with the season right around the corner, yes, my Texans went undefeated in the preseason and you can win your fantasy football leagues, just like the Texans did in the preseason. Cause I don't know when they'll win again and you can <laugh> and you can, you know, use the draft guide, use the ultimate cheat sheet, check out all the content. It is a must for anyone that has your fantasy football drafts upcoming.
Speaker 3 00:40:23 So check that out, get the free draft guide fantasy alarm.com. Make sure you give James a follow as well at the underscore real underscore Grande, send Matt sells a tweet at the sales man. Let him know you hope you feel better and you just want, can't wait to hear his sweet, sweet voice. Talk about prospects in next week's edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast and gimme a follow if you feel so inclined at Colby R Conway. So that is it for this week and we will see you next week with the next edition of the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball podcast.
