Fantasy Baseball Podcast: 2023 Fantasy Draft Keeper Strategy

Speaker 1 00:00:07 And welcome back for the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast. This season is inching closer and we are glad to be talking with you again. I am Colby Conway at Colby r Conway on Twitter, and with me as always, back in the saddle. We're coming up to a pretty big day for Avid baseball fans. So check in with Matt Sells at The Sales Man on Twitter. Matt, my friend, how is everything going for you? Speaker 2 00:00:31 Uh, going pretty well. Yeah, we're coming up on it pretty quick here for pictures and catchers reporting. Um, that's always, always a good, like it could be a literal blizzard outside and if pitchers and catch, if I get footage of pitchers and catchers doing drills at, at team complexes, I'm in a good mood. I mean, I don't mind blizzards to begin with, but even so, like just people and baseball uniforms, pitching and catching to each other just just puts me in a good mood. Speaker 1 00:01:02 Yep, absolutely. And we've, you know, we're, we're getting close to the fortunate or unfortunate, however you wanna talk about the best shape of their lives as People report start reporting soon, we're gonna be in for that. Uh, but we do have some news and notes if you haven't checked out [email protected] yet. The ML or the Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is completely free. Content is being churned out left and right over there. Various positions, strategy pieces, d f s, seasonal. Uh, Matt's got his dynasty rankings out, which I'm actually referencing in an article that will be out next week for the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. So go ahead over to fantasy alarm.com and get your, can I say copy even though it's all online? Can I say your copy? Am I allowed to say that? Speaker 2 00:01:45 Yeah, I mean, it's, it's a colloquial term. That'll be fine. Speaker 1 00:01:48 Okay. Yeah, your copy, your version, your, your resource, go get it [email protected] Access to it, your access. That's probably much better access to it. Once again, free F r e e free 99 free dollars. Nothing to it. Free, free, free for the draft guide. So Matt, wanna talk a little bit before we come back to the draft guide, but some news and notes that have come around. So, uh, many people can't see the show sheet that we have here. Uh, of course, I like to be a bit blunt with some of the things I put in there. So Saul report on Twitter that Mitch Keller's looking at adding a gyro slider to his mix, or at least updating his current, um, slider on baseball. Savana shows that he already has one kind of in the chamber there, but it looks like he's going to be tweaking it a little bit. Um, so sp one upside for Mitch Keller this season with the addition of the Gyro slider. Speaker 2 00:02:37 Um, I mean, I know you're, you're Pirates fandom is getting in the way of calling him an SP one. I mean, the Pirates would hope he's an SP one, right? They drafted him to hoping that he would be in the mix with, you know, the now departed Garrett Cole and Tyler Glass. Now, as you know, ACEs of their future rotation. Uh, it hasn't worked out quite that way for Mitch Keller. I know he gets a lot of heat, but did anybody pay attention to what he did in the second half of last year? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, because he was markedly better in the second half of last year over his last 70 innings. He pitched to a 3 0 9 E r a, which is not terrible. I mean, it, for, for those of you that, that don't particularly like, um, e R a, which you know, fine, I can understand. Speaker 2 00:03:27 Um, he's still put up a three nine oh f that's not, that's not terrible. I mean, not great, not terrible. Um, it's better than, you know, it's about what his first half actually was. So if you're looking at fip, he was a 3 87 in the first half and a three nine oh in the second half of last year. That's actually a pretty steady season from him, despite the fact that the first half his era r a was not great. It was a four and a half. Um, so look, is it gonna help his pitch mix? Yes, I I think it will. Um, he has struggled with avoiding contact in the majors to be, to be sure. Um, he's not exactly been a strikeout guy for them. I mean, you know, he, he fared better against Righty's last year in the strikeout department in case per nine. He was at 8.69 against lefties it was 6.78. So I think the slider will help him increase the strikeout rates to, uh, lefties and, and you know, he can kind of bury it inside to them a little bit, but SB one's pushing it a little bit. I'm sorry to say there Speaker 1 00:04:39 Colby, we can, we can edit out all that in post to just you saying I agree. And then we can move on. We can edit that in post or I said you can edit that in post <laugh>, um, and we'll get that updated. But Keller Speaker 2 00:04:49 Needs make me sound, like I said, Patrick Corbin was the ace of the Nats last year when he then went out and a literal flaming dumpster would've pitched better than Patrick Corbin. Speaker 1 00:04:59 Post production's a beautiful thing. My friend <laugh> post is a beautiful thing, but Keller needs a, Keller needs another lateral weapon. That's what he needs. Yes. And he needs something, something to help against left-handers. Yes. That's the big thing. And if he, if this slider can be a, a bit more lateral, I mean there need to be some vertical break to it too, but if it can be a lateral weapon, like really looking at Keller, he needs to be able to build confidence in a, whether it's a slider or something that he can just aim right at that back foot of a left-handed hitter. Like the back foot slider is such a powerful weapon against lefties or I guess if you're right, I mean you can, he needs it. Speaker 2 00:05:34 You can also say like, what would be an inside slider to a, right. So like a front door slider to a lefty is, or backdoor, I guess backdoor slider to a lefty is pretty potent too. Cuz if you can, if you can start it like a ball but it breaks into the strike zone and gets called a strike, but it stays on the outer ha like the outer third of the plate, then that's a serious weapon. I agree that putting it back foot to a lefty as a lefty hitter is a very tough pitch to stay away from in my perspective. But it was also very tough for me to stay away from ones that were on the outer half that l lake. You, you read it as a ball and you're like, it's gonna stay out there and then it breaks late and you're like, I just got beat with like an un like I can't do anything with that pitch. So, um, yeah, he, he needs something to keep lefties off of him for sure. Speaker 1 00:06:27 And when you look at his pitch mix last year, I mean when facing righties he was four seam, slider sinker. That's what he pretty much went with. And then lefties, he was the four seamer, the sinker curve ball. And then his slider actually amongst all of his pitches was the ones he used less against lefties. So he was basically attacking lefties with a four scene fastball, a curve ball that was more vertically breaking and then a sinker that typically sinkers tend to run arm side if anything. So he had nothing Right. Breaking in on a lefty so lefties didn't have to sit or they could, that's something they didn't have to worry about cause right. Speaker 2 00:07:01 Have it, you have two, you have two vertical breaking pitches, one of them is gonna run away. So if he starts it on the inner half of the plate and it runs arm side, it's gonna get too much of the plate. And his fastball doesn't have all that much movement on it. Like it's got tight spin, but it doesn't really move that that much. So you're talking about basically a straight pitch and two that are vertically breaking that you can't bury inside. Yeah. So yeah, the, the slider is gonna be a big weapon for him I think this year. Speaker 1 00:07:34 Yep. And obviously there's a lot, we'll I, I'm really interested to see in spring how he utilized Speaker 2 00:07:38 It. The rest of the team isn't gonna help him with very much in terms of like wins <laugh>, but Speaker 1 00:07:44 Maybe Speaker 2 00:07:45 His ratios uh, should be better this year. Cuz he also figured out a pretty decent pitch mix in the second half last year too, which helped get back to a 3 0 9 e r a. So he posted a 3 91 Combind e r a last Speaker 1 00:08:00 Year. And one thing to note too, here in 2023, their backstop at least to begin the year very good defensively Yes. Should help, should help the pitchers there a bit. Although in my an article coming out in the draft guide, I'm gonna reference a young Pittsburgh catcher who I would like to see make an appearance this year. Speaker 2 00:08:17 Are we going with, Speaker 1 00:08:18 I'm talking about, but Speaker 2 00:08:18 Are we going with Andy Rodriguez or Henry Davis Speaker 1 00:08:22 Uh, this year? Andy? Speaker 2 00:08:24 Yeah. Speaker 1 00:08:25 I don't know if, we'll I don't, cause I think don't Speaker 2 00:08:26 See Henry this year. I don't think he, I think he needs at least another year in the minors. Yeah, I mean catchers tend to take a little while to advance through the minors cuz they gotta get not only the offense down, especially for Davis but also you know, the nuances of calling a game and getting, handling Speaker 1 00:08:43 A staff Speaker 2 00:08:43 And handling a staff and defense. And that's why catchers make very good managers. Mm-hmm <affirmative> in the Amazings. Cause they know a lot about a lot of baseball Speaker 1 00:08:54 And they gotta know where everybody is at any given point in time. In Seattle we got an update. Looks like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are intentionally going to be limited early. Shouldn't come as much of a surprise when you consider the fact that Seattle probably is post-season aspirations again. Yes. And they want to, I don't wanna say back load, but it's essentially what they're gonna do. Yeah. If, if they, if they say, hey we're getting 180 and 200 from Kirby and Gilbert, we want to get, we want to be sure come seasons end in the post-season that it's not a question our horses are ready to go. Um, in terms of drafting them, there seems to be no health concerns. So I don't really think we should really move them down the boards all that much. I that's my thought in the matter. Speaker 2 00:09:38 I agree. Um, it's gonna lead to a little bit of a slow start for some numbers obviously. Right. Um, but baseball, unless you're in like, so let's caveat this. I guess if you're in a head to head league, would you drop them further down the board than if you're in a roto or a categories league? Speaker 1 00:10:02 Probably. I guess you may have to, but I'm also, I'd be very interested in buying the dip on them if there's going to be one. Speaker 2 00:10:08 Yeah, I mean that's true. I'm just thinking like head-to-head if you're drafting one or both of them to be, I don't know what s p three s for you basically. Um, but they're gonna get closer. Speaker 1 00:10:22 I dunno April, I don't know if I would actually, because even though if you're playing head-to-head, I know the wins and losses matter, but fantasy baseball's still a marathon. Speaker 2 00:10:29 Yeah. I mean that's why, that's the only reason why I'm asking about head to because it's more, it's more week to week based than like, like for example with Rhoda, like we've talked about this before, but a couple of years ago I was 10th come June in my 20 team league. Right. And like normally you've got no shot at that point. And Walker Bueller came up, this was his rookie year and I didn't burn him, I didn't use him at all because I didn't suspect I was gonna be in the money and I didn't want to cost myself a free year of Walker Bueller the following year. Um, and my team got hot and you know, I wound up finishing second and it turned out that Walker Bueller would've produced enough points in that league for me to have won it. But that's, so like, that's kind of my argument for this with RDO is like, it's a marathon. You're going all the way through October, so it doesn't really matter what you get out of Kirby and Gilbert in April if you're getting full innings and brush arms in September, right? Like, uh, I don't know, my only hesitation would be in leagues. May I bump 'em around? Okay. Maybe around. But that's about it. Speaker 1 00:11:45 Yeah. And like, and then here's the other thing too, like at, at a simple glance of a headline gonna be delayed, you know, they're healthy, they're healthy, that's the big thing. First off, they're fine, right? That's the main thing. But like we look at it here, I mean in 2022, including the post season Gilbert threw 191 innings. Like, you know, we say, what is it like the adding 30 ish innings a year? Like yeah, okay. I understand. Not wanting to run your 26 year old out there for 225 innings if you wanna do that, I get that. That's fine. And his splits are a bit drastic. His e r a dropped over a run if you look at the calendar first and second half of the year. So like there was a drop off. So maybe that's what they're looking to. I think the innings limit's gonna come maybe more in play for Kirby because between the mins and the postseason last year, we're looking at 164 ish inning. So 30 puts him right around 200. So, you know, the maybe preserving him from the long haul I can understand, but other than gilbert's e r a dropping in the second half in some of those other metrics, I mean he's, he's equipped to handle a full workload unless they're worried about the jump from 2021 to 2022. Speaker 2 00:12:52 Well, okay, so if you think, okay, he went 191 innings last year, right? Yeah. If he makes what 32 starts this year? Probably Speaker 1 00:13:02 He made 33 last year. Only one in the posts. So 32 regular season. Speaker 2 00:13:06 Right? So let's say he makes another 32 and he goes, I don't know, six innings to start maybe cuz Seattle likes to try to use their, their starters a little more than everybody else. Um, so if he goes 32 starts and gets six innings to start, that's 192 innings. And then you're talking if they want to make a run in the postseason, which I think everybody is under the impression that they're probably a top four team in the AAL this year. So if you assume that they've got a shot to make it to maybe an A L C s if everything goes correctly, you're talking at least another three starts for him in the post-season. And those, even if it's a smooth sailing game, there's a lot more stress on a post-season in mm-hmm. <affirmative> than a regular season. And so, you know, I if they may a long run you could see him get to two 20 and I just think they'd rather keep him about the one 90 s mark. Speaker 1 00:14:09 Yeah. Yeah. And it's Speaker 2 00:14:10 Alright. So I think that's what this is about. Speaker 1 00:14:14 Yeah. And again, if they're, if other people in your league are gonna drop them down because of that report, I am buying the dip on both of them and would be excited about it. Another one piece of news that we got, I should say Fantasy's favorite swing man, as I like to say, Aaron Ashby in the walk, he's gonna start be behind in camp due to shoulder fatigue. I found this one interesting given that, I mean technically you don't do much throwing in the off season. So, and he did, I believe he missed three ish weeks last year with a shoulder ailment. So, uh, I don't like this one compared to, compared to the Kirby and Gilbert News, um, this is incredibly worrisome for, again, fantasy's favorite Swingman Speaker 2 00:14:54 Agreed. Like it comes when they're just starting to ramp up their off-season throwing routine, right? Like every, every team gives their guys off-season workouts to so that hey, if you do this, you'll come in where you can hit the ground running in spring training and we don't have to use the first like three weeks of spring training to build you back up, right? Like you can come in and be actually work on stuff and improve things in spring training. So the fact that this comes when he's had a pretty mild off season and already missed time last year with the ailment and you know, it's not like Milwaukee was a post-season threat. Um, it, it's definitely concerning, right? He's had, he is had more time off then the Mariner's pitchers have, and yet he's ailing and he had less of a workload last year than those guys. Speaker 2 00:16:01 So I'm a little concerned. I also don't typically like the swingman role for, for fantasy cuz I j i it is just too hard for me to figure out exactly when they're gonna pitch and what you're gonna get out of 'em week to week. And like I get that in a relief role, he's got a better chance of picking up wins. But if you put a starter in a spot where they're not used to, then you have a better chance of having a blow up and hurting your ratios, which is way harder to come back from than picking up a lone winner or something. So I'm, I'm definitely very cautious with Aaron Ashby right Speaker 1 00:16:40 Now and if this were an isolated incident, that's one thing. But looking back last year I actually missed one, right? So in June he went on IL for left forum inflammation, missed a little bit and then had shoulder informa inflammation about a month and a half later. So we're talking now Speaker 2 00:16:54 Here's my, here's my question with this. Is it, is there a Tommy John lurking and they haven't figured it out yet? Because my concern is he had the left forearm inflammation, which is typically a sign that something is wrong in the elbow, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative> and then if he changed stuff up to kind of protect the forearm and the elbow that leads to the shoulder mm-hmm <affirmative>. So he either has to refigure out his mechanics or there's something else lingering there that they have not yet found. Speaker 1 00:17:33 Well and that's the game, that's the game we're gonna play. And I think the bigger thing here too, health is obviously the paramount for him, but what's going to hurt from a fantasy perspective? I mean first off simply put, what is the saying? The best ability is availability, right? That's the saying, right? Yeah. So like that's gonna be hampered. But for a guy who already was going to need a good spring to earn a rotation spot, he was already on the outside looking in and the team still has Adrian Hauser who is probably gonna be their sixth starter as their de facto six guy. He was already on the outside looking in now comes to camp, is going to be behind coming off a year where at times very, very good. Don't get me wrong. But we now have a forearm and two shoulder issues in the past eight months. Speaker 2 00:18:17 Yeah. And also I'm not terribly high, I'm Milwaukee to begin with. Like I just don't, I just don't swear they're going with this squad. Speaker 1 00:18:27 Yeah, it's, it's Speaker 2 00:18:28 Like in Speaker 1 00:18:29 General this is not good for Ashby's fantasy perspective cuz like basically now we've had this, if they weren't going to be close with him already, they are now Speaker 2 00:18:38 He's not beating out Burns, Woodruff, Lauer or Paralta for the top four spots. Speaker 1 00:18:42 No, there's one spot. And while he has the most upside Miley and Hauser, albeit not as good at peak performances, Ashby have proven that they can be, you know, reliable and available. Speaker 2 00:18:53 Right? And then, oh by the way, they have Bryce Wilson who could be a starter if need be, Speaker 1 00:18:59 Former Pittsburgh. Great Speaker 2 00:19:01 <laugh> former price prospect is a starter. Um, so like they've got, they've got options and obviously Milwaukee is a team that likes to get creative, um, with their staff. But let's also not forget that they've got some, they they've got some guys that could come up like Ethan Small could be there, Janssen junk, yes, we can make fun of his name, but he's an okay pitcher. Um, and uh, yes, Jason Alexander, not that Jason Alexander, but there is a guy named Jason A. Alexander in their system. These guys may be able to compete for, um, for spots. So I mean they're not sexy names by any mean, but this is not good news for Ashby because there's like seven dudes he's gonna have to compete with and he's already behind the April. Speaker 1 00:19:53 Yep. That is not where you wanna be. So once again, we talked about the fantasy baseball draft guide here at Fantasy Alarm. It is free wanna spotlight a couple articles. There's a ton of content we would spend hours if we combed through every single one. But just this week we started putting out positional spotlight. So each day of the week there's positions coming out with insight into all the positions for um, fantasy baseball's purposes. So I want to ask Matt a couple of questions with the articles that we have on there. And selfishly, I'm gonna start with mine. I'm doing the catcher one or one of the positions I'm doing is catcher. Um, not a sexy position, but there are some offensive options to like, if you find yourself wanting to attack the, the upper echelon of this position, one thing I'm noticing compared to rankings, I don't have Sal Perez in my top five at the position. I am just kind of out on him at price, but also in terms of production, I'm chasing upside with some youngsters instead. So simply put, you don't even have to go into too much detail if you don't want. But am I crazy for not having Sal Perez in my top five, amongst the backstops in fantasy for 2023? Speaker 2 00:20:55 Um, I'm not gonna call you crazy cause I, Speaker 1 00:20:58 It's not the norm from what I'm seeing, it's not the norm. Speaker 2 00:21:00 It's, it's not the norm. I mean, to be honest, I've seen, I've seen Sal Perez in top fives basically across the industry mm-hmm. <affirmative> as we went over it last time. Like catcher is a little bit more sneaky deep than, than we give it credit for mm-hmm <affirmative>. Um, the fact that you can make like Will Smith who had a really good season last year, you can make a case that he's no better than the fourth catcher should tell you that it's decently deep, right? And so I I don't have a fault with anybody that's in your top five over Sal Perez. I really don't, I don't think he's much at like, I'm not saying he's like 10th, but like sixth or seventh, Speaker 1 00:21:52 He was sixth for Speaker 2 00:21:53 Me. I, I'd be fine with, um, like I I, you can make a case for about six dudes to be in the six or seven guys to be in the top five. And if SA Perez isn't one of 'em, then I don't have that big of a problem with it. Speaker 1 00:22:09 It ultimately comes down to what you're looking at. So like for me when I'm looking at it like when it Perez, he wasn't going in the top three for me regardless. First off, even the top two, you'll read it in the draft guy, but it's pretty much what you're gonna see across the board. It's real muto and it's far show. Those are the top two guys. They are the only true separators at the catcher position. Yes, it's them two after that. For me, the reason that I have Adley Ruman in there and then at four and five with Will Smith and uh, Alejandro Kirk, if I'm going to expect power bumps mainly for Kirk and Smith to just be a little bit better, we're now getting similar power production at a better batting average. So you're, it's Sal Perez with a higher batting average. Why would I not put those two above him? Is there risk Speaker 2 00:22:52 Lineups too? Speaker 1 00:22:54 Correct. And don't get me wrong, Perez, he's, as much as he's not the 40 plus home run bat he was two years ago or whenever that was. Now he's also not a 15 home run bat. Like he's good power for the position, but I'm expecting power jumps for other guys and you're basically gonna get a better average. So that was the reasoning, but you'll check out the whole article in the draft guide. Next up for me, second base, same thing. I guess I'm going against the grain here a little bit different. Marcus Simian per N F C a d p, one of the top second basemen off the board, if I'm looking here dating back to January 1st, he is second and he is about a quarter of a pick behind Altuve. A lot of people have semi in number one. I have jazz chisel number one, but I have semi in down at three. Are you with me in the Seon camp? He's a guy I'm just not drafting this year and he's one of my popular bust candidates, which you can also read in the fantasy alarm. Fancy baseball draft Speaker 2 00:23:45 Guide. Yeah, I just look, I, I know we've talked about the shallowness of second base previously and, and mm-hmm <affirmative>, it sounds a little weird to be saying, well this guy's a top three second baseman and we're not interested, but I'm, I'm with you. Like you can find 20 plus 10 plus deal guys all over the place at second base, right? Like looking at, looking at our list, our, our rankings here, um, they show projections with that, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative> and if we're talking about guys who could go 2010 Altuve is probably not gonna reach 10 stolen bases. He doesn't really run anymore but he could hit 30 home runs. Okay? So we'll keep Altuve there cuz I'm not gonna not draft Jose Altuve, he's just too good for that. If we're looking at other guys, jazz Chisholm could be a 2020 guy. Ozzy Alby could be a 2020 guy. Edmond could be a 10 Homer, 20 steels guy. Um, Andres Jimenez could be a 10 homer, 20 steels guy. You could have Glab Torres if he has a bounce back year who could be a 2010 guy. You could have Jorge Palango be a 2010 guy. Like heck, Brandon Lao could be a 20. Like he steals bases in a sneaky way, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative>. And what do all of those guys have in common? All of their projected batting averages right now are at least 2 55 or above. Marcus Simians is 2 39. Speaker 1 00:25:22 Yep. Speaker 2 00:25:23 Well I can't take a batting average hit from a middle fielder. I just can't do it. And if you're chasing, well he is got a nice combination of home run then steels. Okay. I just named seven dudes who also have a nice combination of steels and homers cuz guess what? That's what a second basement is supposed to bring to the table. And all of them have better batting averages and if you're in O B P leagues, the tanking and batting average doesn't make up for like, he's gonna have a hard time walking so much that it makes up for 20 points less and batting average than the other guys. Speaker 1 00:26:04 Absolutely. And the one thing that I kind of am a bit weary on, two Texas ran a lot last year. Yes. I believe they had the most in the league, their new manager the last couple years. I understand the team makeup was a bit different. He's not exactly super aggressive on the base pass in terms of stealing bases and I already like, I know there's the rules in place, but I already anticipate semi and stealing less than last year. And that's going to, that's gonna knock down him for me. So you can check out, Speaker 2 00:26:34 I just as a side note, I know Jeff Chisholm's on Miami, um, and whatnot, but the rest of the guys, it's hard not to trust their lineup better than Texas is right now. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> like yeah, they have Seager and they, they got, but like Josh Jung is still basically a rookie for all intents and purposes. Um, a do Garcia's pretty spectacular, but he's very streaky. Um, Nathaniel Lowe had himself a pretty good year, but again he's still a youngster. Like great, but the bottom half of that lineup is not, is is, is not great. So if you're looking in terms of like run production or getting him around the bases, it's harder to make the case compared to the other guys I just named. Speaker 1 00:27:20 Yep. Yep. Absolutely. Top five third base, uh, Pete Cole wrote that, check it out in the draft guide. One thing that jumped out to me, and you and I both are a bit down on this guy, but Pete's got Raphael Deborahs at two. Um, I know you and I are more pro Riley, um, at two if I remember correctly. So do you have a problem with Deborahs at two or is it just like, I can see it but like you and I both agree that we're going to look elsewhere than Deborah's at third base and I'd rather have Riley over Deborah's personally. Speaker 2 00:27:49 Um, I I agree. Like I think Deborah's is in a spot where everything has to go right for him to hit number two third base values. Speaker 1 00:27:58 Yep. Speaker 2 00:27:59 Like right now, Adam Ronis on his rankings that just dropped a couple of days ago for third base, he's got devs at five. Well he is got Jose Ramirez, Machado, Bobby Whit Jr. Austin Riley endeavors, then Anado, then Bregman. I could make the argument that I'd that I'd almost put devs at seven. Speaker 1 00:28:26 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:28:27 Like I'd rather have's Speaker 1 00:28:29 One of my bus guys too. Speaker 2 00:28:30 I'd rather have Anado and Bregman than, than Devs. Like I'm just not on devs this year. It may come back to bite me, but I just look at this like they traded for an injured alber Mani Tok to fill an injury hole in the middle infield Speaker 1 00:28:51 <laugh>. Right? Speaker 2 00:28:52 Like how, like how, how does that make any sense? So you have Mata Yoshida who is brand new to M L B has never seen breaking in sliding pitches and fastballs of this velocity with regularity in Japan. Sure. Japan very good baseball league. A lot of 'em are quite good. Say a Suzuki was supposed to be outstanding and then came and had massive adjustment problems. Right. Masaki also doesn't have that much power. Like say a Suzuki has more power than Yoshida. Um, I don't know if I trust Kik, Justin Turner, like there's probably a reason the Dodgers didn't resign Justin Turner probably cuz he is on his last legs. Right? Um, I mean heck, they've got Adam Duo right now slated to play center field. Are we serious? Like really you're gonna put Adam Duval in there over like Jaren Duran and let him go figure things out? Uh, I don't know. Yeah. And then they trade in for Alberto Moni who they fully admit is not gonna be ready for the, for the start of the season to go replace Trevor's story, who's not gonna be ready, nor he may also miss the whole dang season. So like how are we banking on devs being the only actual bat in this lineup and putting him as anywhere in the top five third basement? Speaker 1 00:30:17 Yep. And I get it, devs is gonna be a very, a very polarizing fantasy player this year. I think you're gonna love him and won him or you're not gonna take him at all. You and I are both in the, we're not gonna take him camp. And it's not that I don't, you know, it's, it's like when we go back to the bus candidate devs isn't gonna go two 30 this year with 10 homers and two stolen bases. He's not, he's going to have a productive year. But at his price point, I can't justify taking him there. And that's, that's the issue again. Right. Speaker 2 00:30:45 I don't think either of us are saying, well he is gonna hit 200 with zero homers and 15 RBI I and 15 runs and he is gonna get hurt and whatever. We're just saying that you're gonna get comparable stats to basically seven or eight third basemen. So why expense the draft capital to get a guy you could get 15 rounds later and get better players elsewhere in shallower positions. Speaker 1 00:31:12 Absolutely. And then we'll go to shortstop written by Ryan Kirksey once again, the fantasy, armed Fantasy Baseball draft guide Bob Biche ranked above Bobby Whit, Bobby Witz, a very endeared player, two fantasy managers this year. I kind of like the bechet above wit personally I don't, I don't know if I do it in drafts per se, but reading what Kirky had to write, I really like the rationale for it. And then if you any needed any ammo to the, you know, add to the fire, obviously Toronto's field dimensions or be quite nice, although it should be a little bit better for lefties and righties, but regardless it'd still be benefit nonetheless. I kind of like bechet there where Kirksey has 'em rank. It's interesting. Speaker 2 00:31:50 Yeah. Also, Bechet just signed a three year extension to avoid arbitration. If I saw that correctly. Um, on, I believe it was reported on MLB trade rumors, if I saw that correctly. Um, yeah, I'm fine. I'm I'm fine with that. I think obviously Whit had a remarkable season last year, but I don't know, like if there's a bump coming Yeah, right. You're drafting him like is it possible that there's a bump? Maybe, but like what if there's just not a a, a bump, right? Like he went 20, he, he had 20 homers and 30 steels last year at 2 54 average. Let's say he hits two 60 with 24 homers and 25 steals. Speaker 1 00:32:44 Mm-hmm Speaker 2 00:32:44 <affirmative> that's essentially the same stat line and you're paying for a, you're drafting him at his ceiling and that just doesn't, it just doesn't make any sense. So I, I don't have a problem with having um, Boche over over wit. Speaker 1 00:33:09 Yep. I don't either. So two things I kind of wanna touch on here for the last 10 or so minutes. Make this one really quick. But compared to recent years, Matt, it seems like the draft actually does start at the first overall pick this year. Obviously the first overall pick is the first pick in the draft. So technically yes, that's where it starts. But it seems like in years past if there wasn't a clear cut unanimous guy, it was amongst maybe one or two players. Right? This year, since January 1st, the top players ADPs are 2.5, 2.8 and three. So we don't have a clear cut number one. And since January 1st, as I'm looking here at N F B C data, Jordon Alvarez, Shohet, Julio Rodriguez, Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Aya and Trey Turner have all been pick number one at least in one draft at N F B C. So we're talking to seven different players have gone off at pick number one. Is this the most disparity amongst the first overall pick that we've seen in fantasy? At least in recent memory? Speaker 2 00:34:09 In recent memory? Yeah. Um, I, it'd be hard pressed to find a year where there's been laskin and maybe there's been a year where there's been like two guys, right? Yes. Would you just named what, five or six? Speaker 1 00:34:23 Yep. Speaker 2 00:34:24 They've gone number one since, since January 1st. So yeah. Uh, Speaker 1 00:34:34 And a lot of it's gonna come down to like format. Like if you're in points leagues where steals are a little less imperative, like in points leagues, it's pretty much gonna come down to like judge maybe Jordon and maybe a Kuni to an extent. But when you're playing categories, I mean all seven of those guys in do you wanna build and it's how you wanna build your team. It Speaker 2 00:34:52 Also depends on how you can use otani. Speaker 1 00:34:55 Correct? Speaker 2 00:34:55 Right. Because some leagues you can only draft the hitter and then the pitcher is a separate guy and some leagues you have daily moves and you can move 'em back and forth between util and pitcher whenever you want. So you get the start and you get the dh, Speaker 1 00:35:10 Oh you got two players, Speaker 2 00:35:11 Some leagues, if it's a weekly thing, you gotta pick your poison. Either he's gonna start for you that week or he's going to hit for you. And in that point you're losing basically half his value in those leagues because you're almost, unless you need, like in my home league, we have an innings minimum that you have to hit because we just say you need nine pitchers. Right. But to protect against people who just go out and get relievers so that you have an untouchable amount of saves and an untouchable set of ratios because you only have like 400 innings, we set an innings minimum so late in the year, you'll see people like the last few years for Otani, they have given up the hitting stats late in the year to just get a his starts because they want the innings to hit the minimum. Speaker 2 00:35:57 Right. So it's gonna depend on your format. I'm with you, um, on, on that. But this is certainly, certainly wide open, um, to see yeah, how many 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 guys have gone one. And then you have another two guys that have a minimum pick of two, which is Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. So by the way, props to people figuring out that Kyle Tucker should be being drafted that high like as of like three years ago. Like mm-hmm <affirmative> the boat on Kyle Tucker has been way too slow to develop for a guy who's like a legit 30 30 threat like Yep. Every season. Um, so yeah, we're talking all told you've got like nine different guys who, who've gone either first or second so far since January 1st. That's insane. First of all, I'm not sure why Aaron Judge would go number one to be perfectly honest because like what are you hoping for Aaron Judge to be a number one overall pick? Like what do you need him to do to make him worth the number one pick? Speaker 1 00:37:19 And you gotta, you're gonna have to bank some regression. Like obviously he is not hitting 62 homers again. Right? Speaker 2 00:37:24 Right. But like what if he falls to like how many home runs do you need him to hit to make him worth the number one pick? Speaker 1 00:37:34 He gotta think hit I think at absolute minimum mid to upper forties, Speaker 2 00:37:41 Right? So you're cut off as he's gotta hit at least 45 bombs and then probably throw in what another 15 steals. I mean obviously we're not getting a 62 and whatever. He had what, 18 steals last year, if I'm not mistaken. Um, so Speaker 1 00:38:00 With judge, let's say this, let's go back to 2017, right? That year he hit 2 84, 52 homers, nine stolen bases, that's seven. So obviously 10 less homers, seven less stolen bases and 20 Speaker 2 00:38:13 Seven-ish Speaker 1 00:38:14 Points off the batting average with 114 R BSS reduction across the board. Strikeouts are up to by the way, but regardless, yeah. With that, what is 2017 season and let's see, even knock the home runs down a bit. Let's say, let's just go down to like 47. 47 Homers 114 rbis, nine steals and a 2 85 average. Does that get you number one? Speaker 2 00:38:33 That's not good enough for me Speaker 1 00:38:36 Because the steels are gonna, the steels boost value so much. Speaker 2 00:38:40 I mean it's not only that but like Akuna could hit better than than 2 84, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative> like Trey Turner and Philly is gonna flat out feast like he's with Kevin Long again. When is it that Trey Turner really took off as a player when the Nats hired Kevin Long and Kevin Long called Trey Turner, his dude. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Okay. Trey Turner loves Kevin Long so much that the last two off seasons, while he was a dodger, he literally got off season instruction from Kevin Long, the Phil's hitting coach didn't, didn't use the Dodgers hitting staff, used Kevin Long talked with and texted with and got workouts from Kevin Long, that's who he's back with in Philly. And he's there with Bryce who he liked, uh, when they were together as Nats. And he's back with Kyle Schwarber who he liked when he was with Nats and he's close to family and the ballpark fits him. So like to me, t Trey Turner is the, is the number one pick. But like if we're going about Aaron Judge being number one, I have a hard time seeing that simply because you have to bake in regret. Like you're paying for him off of a career. You're like literally a record setting near Triple Crown season Speaker 1 00:40:20 Mm-hmm. <affirmative> Speaker 2 00:40:22 And you're expecting him to just go back out and do it again. Like I, I don't know, I'd rather have Trey Turner at number one or Coya at number one or Jose Ramirez at number one. Or if you can use Otani in a Daily League as a pitcher and a hitter, I'm fine with him at number one. Jordan Don's a little tough for me cuz he just doesn't steal enough bags. Speaker 1 00:40:49 Yep. Speaker 2 00:40:50 Um, Speaker 1 00:40:50 Turner's my guy too, but Speaker 2 00:40:53 That's just, but to me, like if you take, if if you get the 2017 Aaron judge, that's a first round player, but it's not a number one overall player, I think you've left value on the board. Speaker 1 00:41:05 Yeah, I am. I am pro Trey Turner, you're looking at it, we're talking he's 2020 each the past two years with no worth than a two 90 batting average. So I will take him. Thank you very much. Couple last things here Matt. Um, we're in keeper season, that's where we're at, let's be honest. So, um, if you're not in our discord, head in there if you have keeper questions. Matt and I have been answering a couple that we've seen in there. Um, just talking keepers here. Um, general strategy with keepers. Matt, as we're seeing this. One thing that like to point out is context is everything. Uh, we are happy to answer questions. Um, you can't provide too much information. That's one thing I've learned because every league setup is different and that's, first off, that's what makes the game so much fun, right? Fancy baseball is fun because of the ways you can customize it and make your own league and make it fun and everything like that. Speaker 1 00:41:52 So when it comes to your keepers, like when we just look at it at face value, if it's like, Hey, do I keep Trey Turner or Edwin Diaz, I'm not gonna blink an eye, it's gonna be Turner. But what we might not know is what if your league does, you know, 30 points for a save? Okay, that's a little different, you know, then we have to start evaluating things. So for me, context is everything. And then general strategy for keepers. If you can keep guys forever, I do look towards youth, but if it's keeping a couple of guys from year to year and there's like no draft round associated with them, which is another key thing a lot of times I play for that year, I will. Especially if you're not keeping many guys I'm playing for this year. Speaker 2 00:42:31 I agree. Um, dynasty leagues are very tricky like this. Like how much do you wanna play for this year versus build for the future? And I always think a healthy mix is fine. Like keep the guys you're pretty sure are going to produce this year who are younger and then get the bonafide stars who obviously will help you win this year as well. Um, but I I'm with you on the details, right? So we, we get questions and we're happy to answer the questions. Don't get us wrong. That's what we're here for. We love to do that. Love to help you learn how to think through strategies and whatnot, but it makes a difference, right? So like the other day we were asked a a keeper question and then I responded, well is it a keep this year or keeper forever? Because it was a mix of like what, four or five bats and like three pitchers. Mm-hmm. Speaker 1 00:43:30 <affirmative>. Speaker 2 00:43:31 And I was like, well if it's a keep this year, then I'm going with two two arms and three hitters. Speaker 1 00:43:39 Yep. Speaker 2 00:43:39 And if it's a keeper forever, I'm not giving up the fourth bat cuz it was like Wanda Franco. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, right? Um, and then league size matters and whether it's categories head to head five by five, roto six by six Brodo even 10 by 10 roto I've seen. Um, because there might be a guy that brings a niche stat that's hard to find mm-hmm. <affirmative> elsewhere and you know, I've gotten questions on, on uh, Twitter and I get some of my friends on Facebook will hit me up on Facebook Messenger and be like, Hey, who, who should I, you know, keep here? And again, they don't necessarily provide all of the relevant information, um, for you know, is there draft capital associated with it either in a pick or dollar value. Um, or you know, same thing with trades. Like you wanna make a trade great the off-season leading up to the draft in keeper and dynasty leagues is a great time to make trades. Speaker 2 00:44:49 I'm in some trade discussions in some of my home leagues right now, but again, we've gotta know, like if you're gonna come to us and say, can I trade Garrett Cole in this six player package? Okay, the names sound great, but what does your starting pitching look like? Cuz if Garrett Cole's, your only dude and you're only getting like Tyler Anderson back and five hitters is probably gonna be a no, even though six dudes for Garrett Cole is nice, it's gonna leave you short-staffed elsewhere. So, um, in, in terms of our general, my general keeper strategy is to get as much value out of a guy as possible in a position of need. Right. So we'll give you a a a perfect example. We've talked about how deep third base is right? And how shallow second base is. So let's say you have the chance to keep, um, Ozzy AL'S for 25 bucks in a $260 budget in a normal like five by five RO Roto league, right? Speaker 2 00:46:08 Or you have the chance to keep, um, I don't know who's a third baseman. We could Bregman, let's say you could keep Bregman for 20 bucks. So now it's al's at 25 or Bregman at 20 AL'S is a little more expensive, but that $5 at second base makes a bigger difference than it does at third base. Correct? Right? Like even if you get Bregman back at let's say 25 bucks, did you spend more than five? Okay, sure. But if Ozzy ALS is the only second basement or one of three second basemen that gets tossed back in, you can guarantee that you're gonna have to pay like 40 bucks for Ozzy als. Yep. So it's all about like if you're gonna ask us keeper questions, it also helps for us to know can you kind of figure out who's keeping who. Right? I had a friend of mine ask about keeping a first baseman or a first baseman trade or something in one of his keeper leagues. Speaker 2 00:47:12 And I said, well you've been in this league for a while. Do you know like what, like is there a lot of first basemen that are gonna get tossed back because they're all just about the same guy except for maybe a couple of them? Or are they getting kept cuz they're decent enough values and first base is a shallow position, people don't wanna worry about it. And so he, he was like, well let me, let me see if I could sort that out. So he comes back a few hours later and says, I think most of the top guys are gonna be kept and then it's just gonna be a bunch of mid-tier Speaker 1 00:47:49 Mm-hmm <affirmative>. Speaker 2 00:47:50 And I said, okay, well in that case you're trading a guy who's mid-tier and there's other mid-tier guys who are gonna cost about the same and you're getting more value out of the trade than you would at the draft. So make the trade. But if like only top guys would be left, but this guy who like, I think it was Rizzo who kind of like, some people could consider him like in the top eight first basement and some would consider him like only a top 15 guy, right? If he's the only one left, then you can't give him up in this package because you're gonna hamstring yourself at first base. So, um, it's a long-winded way to say that we need all of the data that you can possibly give us so that we can give you the best possible answer from our opinion. We obviously don't know what's gonna transpire on the baseball field for 162 games, but um, you know, and by the way, it's okay to disagree with our tank. Speaker 2 00:48:52 If you don't wanna do something, don't do it. Follow your gut. It's your team, your name's on it, you're the one playing for the money, putting the money in. Or if we're just bragging rights, if it's a free league, your team, you can do what you want. We're just here to give our opinions on stuff. Doesn't mean you have to make the trade. Now if you give us a trade that is so one-sided and so blatantly obvious and you don't do it, it might be ridiculed a little bit, but still your team, your decision if it works out great. Doesn't Okay? You know, it happens. Speaker 1 00:49:24 And, and when it comes to keepers too, like one of the articles in the draft guide is like know your league rules and everything. Let's say you, let's say you had a change in your league, right? Last year you could start three short stops. If you can only start two shortstops this year. You know, if you have Trey Turner, Bobby Whit, and O'Neil Cruise as much as you might like O'Neill Cruise like me. If you can't, you can't keep someone, you can't start every day like right that like your lineup in anything like that is going to come into play. Like for example, you might have had Wander Franco, he's a guy you want to keep, he didn't play a lot last year, so you ended up adding O'Neill Cruise and you're good. Can you, can you feasibly keep and start Franco Cruise Turner and maybe another short stop no. Every single day if you can't, you either have to try to make a trade now before keepers or you're gonna have to throw one back. Like you can't keep somebody that you can't start that is a, like they're good. Yes. But that is a waste of a roster spot, Speaker 2 00:50:19 Right? Don't keep, don't keep depth. Like it sounds weird to to say that, but don't keep a guy who's going to eat a benchmark cuz you don't know what's gonna happen in the draft. Speaker 1 00:50:32 Yeah. And the only way you Speaker 2 00:50:34 Can't do that, you want somebody to fall through the cracks in the draft or there to be, oh this guy screwed up and let Bobby Whit Jr go instead of keeping him and I can't get a fifth shortstop. Right? Like it's just not gonna, like I know technically Bobby Whit probably qualifies a third base in most right leagues, but still like that's the other thing. No how many positions it takes to qualify for a multi-position or a new position from the previous year. Speaker 1 00:51:07 Yeah. And like, and you don't want to keep depth cuz like, you know, we've talked about it, we've last year's podcast we've talked about numerous times. How long can O'Neil cruise feasibly stay at shortstop? Right? We've talked about that Speaker 2 00:51:17 You move into right field probably like this Speaker 1 00:51:19 Year. But if you're talking about your keepers are decided on February 15th without short the knowing that he's going to get outfield eligibility, you cannot keep him if you cannot start him every single day. Cuz you're, I understand he sucked against lefties last year, I get it. But you're gonna start O O'Neal cruise every single day. But if you can't, you can't keep him unless you are tuned in to this inside information that Pittsburgh is going to play him in right field once a week or something. If you don't know that, you cannot keep depth. Those rosters, Speaker 2 00:51:52 By the way, die they play him if they play him in right field once a week and your league takes 20 games Exactly to qualify. You're not getting him at at in outfield until like September, Speaker 1 00:52:04 Which doesn't matter if your team stinks. Speaker 2 00:52:06 Right. Some leagues are five games to qualify, some are 10. My personal home leagues, uh, both Dynasty and whatnot are 20. Okay? So that goes with the knowing your, your league rules and perhaps your categories are different for RTOs then ours. So please, like, if it's a basic one, you can say it's a standard five by five roho. But if there's other categories, let's make sure we know, okay, it's O B P instead of batting average or it's o p s instead of batting average or it's net steels instead of stolen bases or solds. Right? Like, because that also makes a difference with relievers though. We will rarely tell you to keep a, like if it's Edwin Diaz sure. If it's like Ryan Presley sure. Um, there's a couple of guys that are locked in, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, but other than that I'd rather take a, a guy with a, with a, with a guaranteed role. Um, and you can't keep a player off of hope. Speaker 1 00:53:16 Yep. Speaker 2 00:53:16 Yep. Like, like with, with the Aaron Ashby situation and the brewers like sure they have four locked in guys. But if you're like well I could sneak into Wade Miley cuz he's practically free and he is gonna be a fifth starter. No he won't. I mean he is now. But let's say he gets lit up in his first three springs spring performances, he is not gonna be a fifth starter. And now you're locked into keeping a guy who's just dead weight. Right? Um, the Red Sox rotation is a disaster right now. Like I, I don't know what they're doing with it. There's like three dudes who could be a bullpen piece or could be a starter. Can't keep those guys. You can't, like Garrett Whitlock is a talented guy, but if he's a middle reliever or an eighth inning guy, he has zero keeper value for you. Speaker 1 00:54:07 Yep. Speaker 2 00:54:08 And you can't go. Well I'm gonna keep him hoping he gets 30 starts. Cuz I don't think that's happening this year. I really don't. Speaker 1 00:54:15 Yep. Can't keep, can't keep off hope. But ultimately when, you know, we'd love to hear from you in the Discord post. Those keeper questions. Yep. Keeper questions. At least for me. They're a hell of a lot of fun to answer cause it's, Speaker 2 00:54:25 Well you can always hit us up on Twitter and we can discuss 'em on the pod each week too. Speaker 1 00:54:30 Yep. Yep. Twitter discord, Matts the sales man. I'm at colby com. Would love to hear. I personally enjoy Keeper question. There's a lot of fun. The strategy involved with them is great, but that's gonna put a bow on this week's episode. So make sure you head over to fantasy alarm.com and get your access. I'm already learning to the three fantasy alarm fantasy baseball draft guide. So make sure you go get that. And of course, we're recording this on Thursday, February 9th. Um, if it's out before the big game that's happening this weekend, join our, what is it? The big game contest that we have on the site. Speaker 2 00:55:03 It's fantasy, it's fantasy alarm.com/big game. Uh, it's a free contest. Again, free, all you gotta do is answer 32 I think. Questions about the game, just like standard prop type stuff. Like who, um, you know, you know your standard Super Bowl questions, what color is the Gatorade gonna be? What what's the First car commercial. What's the first beer commercial? Uh, uh, Rihanna. I think there's a question about the halftime show in there. Um, there's some obvious que you know, there's some game, you know, questions about the game too. Um, and if you win, you get 250 bucks and you know, to, to go spend how you like. If you finish second, I think it's a free year, uh, subscription to fa and if it's third place, I think that there's another price for a third place. Maybe some merch or something, I don't remember. But the rules are, are, are there. So go ahead and enter fantasy alarm.com/big game Speaker 1 00:56:02 Fancy alarm.com/big game. It is $250 to first one year subscription to second and a three month subscription to third. So there you go. That'll be it for you. Check that out. Check out all the great [email protected] But format sells at the Sales man on Twitter. I'm Colby Conway at Colby r Conway on Twitter, and we will see you next time for the next edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast.