March 15, 2023


Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Buying or Selling the Jordan Walker Stock

Hosted by

Colby Conway Matt Selz James Grande
Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Buying or Selling the Jordan Walker Stock
Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast
Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Buying or Selling the Jordan Walker Stock

Mar 15 2023 | 00:51:35


Show Notes

A new week brings new injuries to MLB spring training including a pair of Mets starting pitchers in Jose Quintana and Kodai Senga, some guy or sell on some quality Spring Training appearances & much more. How are Colby Conway and James Grande approaching these topics in drafts and what spring training performances have them intrigued.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 And welcome into the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I am your host, Colby Conway at Colby r Conway on Twitter. And with me this week, obviously I had my shot at a vacation. So, you know, I for an I tooth for a tooth. I believe that's some code hammer, Robbie's code maybe. So Matt Sells, gets a vacation this week. So stepping in with me here is James Grande. I know the last time I did a pod with James was probably last baseball season, and there was a whole debacle about your Twitter and if you'd get the, the Twitter handle or not. So James, first off, how are you? And secondly, uh, what is the status update on your, your Twitter username or whatever we're calling it on the Twitter sphere? Speaker 1 00:00:44 <laugh>, uh, happy to be here. Of course, Colby, thanks for having me. Um, I'm doing well. Uh, you know, did the pod last two weeks ago with sells on your, on your, um, getaway to whatever island you were on. Um, so I forget what sells told me, but you took your private jet over there and so good for you. Um, and, uh, nothing, nothing to update on the Twitter handle. Still the, uh, fake Ariana Grande account, still in possession of the real grande with no underscores. So I am still underscored, uh, you know, but since then, Colby, um, I would go on with Justin Fensterman, uh, to talk to some M B A when he was on Sirius xm. And they, he came up with this elaborate, um, and intro for me with like a whole with horns and like, uh, he coined me the king of the underscore. So like, you know, a lot's changed, um, on the, uh, on the Twitter handle front. I, I, I've really, I've really liked having the underscores just becoming the king of the underscore really changed me, changed my perspective there. So shout out to Fe Steve for, for, um, you know, the, the warm, the warm welcome to, to being a king. So, uh, that's where the, the Twitter handle stays and I think we're gonna stay with, uh, the underscores moving forward. Speaker 0 00:02:06 Yeah, I mean, it, it does look good. I mean, sure, maybe you don't have the, the, the lack of underscores, but the underscore real underscore grande looks good. I do want to correct you, I f I was in Mexico for a week, <laugh>, um, on vacation, and it was on my second private jet, not Oh, second Speaker 1 00:02:23 One. Okay. Speaker 0 00:02:23 Yeah. Yeah, the first one, first one was getting a little, uh, maintenance done. We were, you know, just something, I think we were just putting like a third bar into the plane or something. Hmm, yes, yes, yes. Just something casual. Like I was sick of having to get up to get somewhere, so I thought I'd put one in the back of the seat that I know was sitting. Yes. Yeah, Speaker 1 00:02:39 That's, you Speaker 0 00:02:39 Know how it goes. You know how it goes with multiple private jets. Speaker 1 00:02:42 Multiple, Speaker 0 00:02:42 Yes. Yes. It's, it's something that, it's, it's a blessing and a curse, dare I say. Um, that, but nos, it's good to have you back. It's been a while since you and I have talked and I thought this was a good week to bring on with sales on vacation. Depending on when we record next week, we might get a, an encore performance of, uh, myself and the king of the underscore James Grande here on the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball podcast. So, James, we'll kind of jump right into it, but first I would be remiss cuz you know, private jets don't pay for themselves. So I gotta, I gotta hit it here. But the free draft guide is [email protected] So get there, get the draft guide, the cheat sheet, everything in there, tons of great content is coming. I just recently updated the free agent tracker that I'm still going, cuz apparently players are still signing. Speaker 0 00:03:26 There's also the N F L Free Agent tracker, but check the MLB one out too cuz we're getting a couple updates here and there. But all of that is in the fantasy alarm giraffe guide, fancy baseball draft guy I should say. So get your copy, your edition, sign up, whatever it [email protected] But James, let's start with this. Uh, it seems like this podcast would be remiss if we didn't have about an episode once every four-ish weeks about talking about pitching problems in the state of New York, as it just seems to kind of pan out that way last week, right? I believe it was right before or during the podcast we got the, the news about Carlos Rodan, a k a, everything that went through that we won't see him till May. That's what I said based on hearing of the, the terms and I hate the dreaded forearm injury. Speaker 0 00:04:12 Yeah. But we'll take a break from kind of chastising the Yankees for their pitching woes and we'll look at the Met. Let's start with this. Jose Quinton, I believe I saw our report. He's getting shut down for a good bit. Um, probably not gonna see him till around or after the all-star break, so we'll have to see. I believe it was a stress, a stress fracture in his rib. He wasn't exactly an overwhelming fantasy presence for the 2023 season. More so better for the Mets in reality than fantasy, I would probably say. Um, but really we can't be drafting Quintana at this point, knowing this at this point of the season, right? Speaker 1 00:04:46 Oh, shot, I mean, his ADP suggests he wasn't being drafted much anyway. Um, he was pretty good for your pirates last year and then, you know, everything fell apart after the trade and hasn't started off too well in New York. So, uh, I don't think Kentana has any viability like three months. That's a lot of time. Um, like you said, we're not gonna see him till after the all-star break at that point. So, no, I mean, I think, you know, maybe later down the line he's a waiver wire pickup, but nothing more, uh, at this point. Speaker 0 00:05:19 And it's something that we see, like once you leave the friendly confines of Pittsburgh and organization that cares for you and really, really cares about your next steps, I would say, uh, they're, they're very good at that. And you know, you go there, but it's one of those things, depending on your league format, maybe if you have an IL spot, it's a deeper league, you can work stash him. Cuz last year he was very good in terms of like an e r a perspective, but really there's going to be e r a regression with him in 2023 when he returns. There's just no questions about it. And with a, with my new favorite word, with a dearth of strikeouts, is he really worth clogging up even an il spot on your team? Like you, you see other guys, I can almost be more inclined to take a shot on guys who I know are going to get injured in time like an Andrew Heney, maybe Jack Flaherty. I'd rather take those guys and have them on my IL spot because they at least give me a little fantasy juice. Whereas with the regression I'm expecting for Quintana, I'm holding a Rosser spot for a four e r a and a sub strikeout parenting. That's just not worth it to me. Speaker 1 00:06:18 Agreed. Um, I do think it could be potentially worth it if you've already drafted and there's waivers already, um, going through weekly, they've announced it's either gonna be David Peterson or Tyler McGill. Those are the two replacements for the Mets early on. Um, they had shirt scher moved to a, you know, a bullpen so Miguel could, um, get live action. He threw four innings. Very good baseball, he looks sharp early on. I know like if you look at um, stuff like fan uh, FanGraphs, they have Peterson projected, I kind of would have mild interest in um, Tyler McGill solely but like high strikeout guy. Um, I know there's a lot of, uh, balls leaving the yard with Tyler McGill especially, um, in his rookie year. I mean 19 home runs allowed in 90 innings, but like the strikeouts over a strikeout for inning. Um, nearly, you know, I mean the walks are eh, like the whip is eh. Um, but a high strikeout guy, you know, good, good pitchers park in in New York. Um, I if Tyler McGill were to win that fifth starter's job and again, uh, you know, we'll talk about spring training a little later as a tease, but uh, he's looked sharp in his three outings so far. Just one and run over eight and third. I would've mild interest there just based on his strikeout upside. Speaker 0 00:07:47 And it's something too, depending on how many roster spots you have in your league, you know, if you're in the late rounds of a draft right now and you kind of have your offense solidified, you could really double tap with your last two picks. Just take both Peterson and McGill, see which one Brace can cause they both are appealing. Like we've seen, if I'm not mistaken, I think Peterson has eight no hidden innings this spring. I don't believe he's allowed to hit um, this spring and he is got over a strikeout printing. So things are obviously looking good for him. And then McGill's kind of been the guy. It almost seems like Peterson's been like all reliable. Yeah. But he is picked up a little bit. Whereas McGill, if one of 'em is gonna hit a ceiling McGill's, the more interesting one, I'd be fine with drafting both in the lay grounds and then, you know, see what happens because there's, there's something, there's something about being someone who steps on the rubber and being in the state of New York that you're more prone to things is, is what it kind of seems like. Speaker 0 00:08:38 So, you know, it might not be bad to have multiple eggs in that basket, but it's, you know, Quintana is not the only one in the Mets rotation. Uh, Koga the off-season acquisition. I got some thoughts about this one, um, in that I believe it's finger tendonitis. Um, so let me ask you this. I understand it's a different ball coming from Japan, but typically from my understanding as a non-doctor, tendonitis kind of grows over time and is, you know, you that you don't just wake up with tendonitis, it's from, you know, overuse or maybe improper use, but it takes time to develop. He hasn't been here that long <laugh>, so how in the hell is it finger tendonitis? Like, I don't know, maybe it's, they didn't want to use soreness or maybe they didn't wanna use a word like that and they cut and they threw that label onto it. Speaker 0 00:09:29 Uh, I'm not really overly worried about sang. I don't wanna bury the lead with that. But this is weird for tendonitis for a guy who's been here for only a little bit. I mean, he said it's been an adjustment getting used to the ball so I can understand maybe he hasn't quite, I don't even wanna say work that muscle cause it's your finger, right? Like I don't know how to, I'm not overly worried about it. Uh, I'm in a home league. I distracted Sega as my s p four, so clearly I'm not overly worried about it. <laugh>. Um, do you have any different thoughts on this <laugh> this very quick, uh, quickly occurring tendonitis issue? Speaker 1 00:10:01 Well, I mean if it are we sh like this doesn't seem like it's an issue that just developed, like this could have been something 1300 innings in Japan. You know, that wear and tear of that really, um, contributed because like you said, I mean he is how many months? Months he's probably been in the states months. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> not even, not even, uh, obviously a year. So I, I'm not overly worried. Obviously tendonitis is like, you know, being around like your grandparents or being around like the elderly, like it's common, right? It's something that you like, oh, I have tendonitis or like you see your grandparents wearing like something on their wrist. I, that's obviously concerning the finger tendonitis is weird to me. Um, he is throwing a bullpen on Tuesday. Apparently the bullpen went well according to Anthony Decom of So we'll see ob but obviously like tendonitis doesn't seemingly just go away. So this is something that we might have to monitor throughout the year and obviously something that he could miss starts from. I mean what's the most in he 180 innings is the most he threw in a season in Japan, right? Speaker 0 00:11:19 It's around there. Would, Speaker 1 00:11:20 Would you like, what is your, what is your honest projection on Sega's innings coming into the air? Like prior to knowing that there was tendonitis, like what would you safely project Sega? 150 of that? Speaker 0 00:11:36 Probably probably around there give or take. Cause I also, also in Japan they throw once a week, right? So I, I don't know how many two star weeks we're gonna get out of them and if we were gonna get any, I'm as I'm assured that we're probably not now. Right. Cuz they're gonna kind of take it a bit easier with them. Do Mets opt to go with the six man version six at times? Like that's in the cards? I think so. My, yeah, probably 150 to 160 innings with the hope that I'm getting more, but I can't necessarily, I can't bank on that. Right. So Right. I have to kind of take that into account. So yeah, I think 150 to 160 and is probably where he is gonna come in. They did say, I mean like you said, he's already throwing a bullpen so clearly it's not bad enough to keep him on off the bump for too long. And they even said that if it was in season, he would be able to throw. I also think that's kind of a, you know, of course, you know, it's, it's, it's a hypothe hypothetical. It's not gonna happen. So, right. So Speaker 1 00:12:34 They can just so they can just say it. Right. It's just like, yeah, I'm gonna say this because no one can say it's not no one, no one would say, oh no, he wouldn't throw. Speaker 0 00:12:43 Right. And it's, you know, they can't, they can't really test it until the season so, right. Yeah. I think 150 innings is fine. They're gonna, he, he's someone that I am interested in drafting as long as the helium doesn't get too high. Cuz I fully expect through the first couple starts of the season, this was before the finger, I was kind of thinking this could be the case. But the first sign of trouble about four, four and a third, four and two thirds innings, he's gonna have a shorter leash Yep. To start the season. Yep. They're gonna be cautious with him. He's not getting, like the surez are treatment, he's not getting that. If they go out there and he, they're taking him out, they're taking him out. He, he's not gonna have the leash to lobby in the beginning. So I'm very, very ready for the first couple weeks of the season to get four and two thirds, five and one thirds innings outta him. Speaker 0 00:13:34 And hopefully he keeps the pitch count in check as he goes on. But he just has to get used to the ball and hopefully this finger tendonitis thing goes away as he's more accustomed to using those, those grippers with the new ball, I guess as, as the kids say. So yeah, I'm okay drafting Sega, I'm not moving him around too much. Uh, but just keep an eye out on it. So that's kind of where I stand as well. Let me talk to you about Mitch Haeger. Uh, he heads out west to the Giants. He seems one of two outfielders they brought in coming off some injury concerns now has an oblique. Uh, to me the oblique to a hitter is potentially or probably the most relatable other than maybe a hand or a wrist to a forearm, to a pitcher. Um, he now has got an oblique issue. Um, what are you doing with Hager in any drafts that you may have upcoming? Speaker 1 00:14:20 I mean, yeah, you don't love to see the oblique and I feel like anytime you see in oblique it's the remediate response is please do not rush them back because every single time they're rushed back or even when they say, oh, I feel a hundred percent there's a re aggravation. Um, so yeah, I mean that's super scary. Gabe Kapler didn't really like clarify anything specific on like whether he's going to be ready for the season or not. Um, but I mean they invested what, almost 50 million on him or just north of 40 million this off season. So obviously like they are heavily invested for the next few years, so they're going to play it safe. I'm not necessarily going to move him down my draft boards too much unless we find out we're gonna start missing time. Um, like significant time now, grade one strains are usually four weeks of a recovery period, which puts us into the beginning of the year. Speaker 1 00:15:27 So will he miss sometime? Sure. Um, but Mitch er, isn't Mitch Janiger like fall into that category earlier in the year where you were, or earlier in this pod where you were talking about Jack Flaherty? Right. Jack Flaherty gets hurt. Mitch Janiger gets hurt, but when Mitch ER's in the lineup, there's a ton of home run upside, so he's not gonna move down my board too much. Um, I'm still okay with drafting him. I'm even okay, like messing around with the abil, like the possibility of him slipping and then taking him later in drafts. Um, just to, you know, kind of finagle my, my draft board. So, you know, it's, it's a tricky injury, but a four recovery period, he'll still be back in April. Barring that's what, you know, is the timeline he's gonna be on. So I still like Hannah, he is still gonna hit in the middle of that order when he does return, um, with 30 home run upside. Yeah, I know it's a, a tough ballpark, but played in the worst offensive ballpark over the last two years, um, statistically so, uh, I guess nothing could be worse than that. Speaker 0 00:16:32 And you actually, you hit pretty, pretty much hit the nail right on the head with the back in 2017. He had a strained right oblique went on the, the then disabled list April 26th, went on a rehab assign about a month and a week or so later. So that's the kind of time we're looking at. And he was back up with the team within a couple of days from there. So maybe we're saying like four to six weeks mm-hmm. <affirmative> could be looking at for, um, Hannah. And here's the thing also, I I'm agreeing with you. I'm just going about it in the long, long roundabout way, am I moving him up? No. Am I buying the dip? Absolutely. Because people are gonna see oblique and inevitably drop him down. I am moving him down a little bit in my rankings, but the buying opportunity is going to be there for er and like you said with Flaherty, he is 100% worth one of those, I don't wanna say precious IL spots, but he is worth one of those because what he can do offensively is very intriguing. Speaker 0 00:17:26 And I kind of like the Giants lineup if I'm being honest. There's some pieces of it I like, like I have a lot of shares of, um, Estrada. I got quite a few of Conforto back when he was cheaper. Um, now his, his spring performances boosted him a little bit. We'll talk about him in a bit, but yep. I, we will be buying the dip on Mitch Hannigan and we got some good news for those people who love to look at spring train numbers and freak out with prospects. But Jordan Walker back in the lineup after an impressive spring. I'll be honest James, it's been really tough for me to get any shares of Jordan Walker. Hi. His price point has just gone. If, if we're, if through the roof is the analogy we want to use it, it's been through about three roofs <laugh>, like there was a point where it was very like attainable to get him and then he decides to come up and go eight for 12 with four home runs in three 118 mile an hour doubles screamed off the fence. So I don't really have many shares of Jordan Walker to be honest. It's kind of killing me and I know I'm gonna bite at some point just cuz I have FOMO and I don't wanna miss out. Um, in any drafts have you done, have you managed to get any shares of Jordan Walker? Speaker 1 00:18:33 No, not yet. And I'm kind of with you like anytime, um, a player like this is just jumping off the page and you don't have shares, it's not, it doesn't feel good, but you're right, it's a price point thing and um, you know, if if we get, if we get there Colby, we get there, uh, don't, don't fall for it, you know, don't stay strong. I know, uh, you know, before you know it, he's gonna be hitting in between Col Manado. No, but, uh, no, I have no shares yet keyword yet. Um, but he's top three four prospect in baseball. It's, you know, if you, if you're doing enough drafts, you gotta have a couple shares Speaker 0 00:19:19 For sure. And I'm looking here from December 1st to February 1st. His ad P per the N F B C was 2 54. Do you want to guess what it's been since February 1st to today as we're recording this on March 14th? Speaker 1 00:19:35 It's 2 54, um, 2 30, 2 45, 180 6. Oh, okay. So we're really moving. Yeah, we are moving the needle fast. Speaker 0 00:19:52 And just for fun, if we wanna do it from March 1st to March 14th it is. Oh. Oh man. Okay. His a d ADP is 1 33. He has a min pick of 80, his max is 2 0 2. Speaker 1 00:20:08 That is, so he's being drafted as the, let's see, I'm looking at the same data. The seventh Cardinal off the board. He's the seventh Cardinal off the board. I had a new bar. Montgomery Flaherty Nicholas. Yeah, I mean, Speaker 0 00:20:26 I mean per the N F B C, I mean he's tagged as a third baseman there. You know, he'll probably play now I'll feel with the Yeah, with the club. But third base, he's the 10th third baseman right now from March 1st to March 14th off the board going ahead of Matt Chapman, au Heo, Suarez, uh, future MVP Cab, cab, Brian Hayes, <laugh>, Anthony Rendon and Josh Young. Some of those guys I agree with, but I mean that's what we're looking at. Like it's literally, he, he is ascended all the way into the tier with Max Munsey and just above him, well about three rounds is like Gunner Henderson. That is Spring training Helium. Speaker 1 00:20:58 Yep. That is helium to the, to the, to the max. Speaker 0 00:21:02 That's like industrial grade Helium. Yep. Like this is not the helium you get like when you go to like Party City and you know, they fill up the balloons and they put it in there. This is like back alley former guy or gal in the industry that has some industry grade helium that they snuck out when they put their two weeks in when they left. Like this is some serious stuff. Speaker 1 00:21:22 Yeah. Um, also Party City way overpriced these days. You know, inflation is real. Just go to Party City and ask for them to blow some balloons for your, for your children. You'll find out quickly. Speaker 0 00:21:33 Yes. Yeah. We are not endorsing back alley here. No Speaker 1 00:21:36 <laugh>. No <laugh>. Speaker 0 00:21:38 That is, that is the wrong place, wrong time to be in, but yep. So obviously unfortunately we're gonna get hit with more injuries. We'll keep it up. I believe we have an injury. I think the new injury report was put up on the site today I think, I think I saw a tweet about that. Um, but there is an injury report from Spring training up on Fancy Alarm. Might be, it might be part of the draft guide. So go check that out there. But James, wanna get your thoughts here, a couple, some early spring performances, whether we are buying or selling in terms of right now, like fantasy draft, most people are probably still looking to draft, uh, or their drafts are coming up soon. Most people like to wait to draft closer to the season, um, which I understand to an extent. Um, but let's start with this. Speaker 0 00:22:17 We kind of talked about Mitch Hager a little bit, but fellow teammate and off-season acquisition, Michael Conforto. I said it's been a guy that I was pretty in on in the beginning and so far in spring hitting 3 0 4, we have four home runs, does have nine strikeouts and 23 Abound. So not loving that, but I will be glad to overlook that with the 8 26 slug and the O p s nearing 1200. So Conforto was, I thought, pretty cheap to begin with. I understood the concerns missing over a year. Um, who over a year with the shoulder issue, and again, not necessarily the greatest park, but he's got enough power when healthy to do it seems like he'll be ready to play the outfield, uh, opening day or shortly thereafter. So, um, are you buying or selling Conforto here in drafts given what we've seen so far in Spring? Speaker 1 00:23:05 I am buying, um, and I kind of was buying prior to single spring training at bat. Um mm-hmm. <affirmative>, look, yes, there's obviously concerns and I think, you know, heading into that, like the, the stock was never higher on Conforto more than heading into Covid year where he had a really good season. Obviously this, it was a shortened campaign, but, um, he looked really good and then everything kind of fell apart in 2021 and then the shoulder and then, you know, we're, we're just aren't playing baseball for a year and that's obviously concerning, but like, we're still in the prime of our career here. 30 years old, he'll be 31 on March, just turn 30. So, um, we have a guy in his prime with three seasons of 27 plus home runs. You talk about the strikeouts, obviously not like ideal in eight games, but he is never been a guy that profiles as someone who strikes out a lot, 159 strikeouts is his career high and 153 games, which is not something you see in today's game. Speaker 1 00:24:08 Like that's a very low strikeout rate. He's a guy who walks a ton. He's always someone who's, you know, gonna contribute to ratios such as on base percentage, a guy with a career 800 plus o p s like you are right in terms of ballparks, but it's never, it was never like where he played in New York was the best hitting environment either. Um, so, you know, for a guy that has multiple 27 plus home run seasons, a guy with 70 plus 90 plus run upside, um, given a full campaign, he has 90 runs batted in upside. Like there's nothing to like really dislike about other than the fact that he was off for a year. But we've seen already from Conor four home runs in, in eight games, uh, looks, looks like the shoulder is feeling pretty good, um, coming into the year. So I'm buying Conforto's Hots springing and I, I mean, like I said, I was buying before spring training. Um, I j he's just a good baseball player that, you know, is getting back into the things and looks pretty healthy doing so. Speaker 0 00:25:13 And that's the thing too, like you said, and something I hadn't really, I was so focused on the power wasn't even really looking at the strikeout, but like I said, he hasn't played in quite some time <laugh>. So maybe, you know, you know, I mean every sport is tough. I get it. I'm in agreeance with that. But, you know, stepping into the plate or the box, I should say face major league pitching or quad a pitching depending on who he's facing. If spring training, I mean that's, that's a, that's a hell of an adjustment, right? Like it's going to take time to get back into that. And I mean yes, the strikeouts are high right now, but he is never profiled as that. The power is legit. And I mean since March 1st, he's going outside of the top 230 with a min pick of 180. Speaker 0 00:25:53 I don't, I'm trying to remember for my T G F B I draft cause I'm pretty sure I drafted him. I that min pick might be me, like <laugh>, I have to look at it. I mean I definitely set a min on some people I think. Um, but I mean I've, I've done four underdog best ball drafts for the way too early slate. Just look, I have a hundred percent exposure to Conforto and I was getting him in the 16th round of those. Uh, I think those days are done, to be honest. He moves up quick. Underdog. A d p adjusts pretty quick, so. Yep. Speaker 1 00:26:21 You sure Speaker 0 00:26:22 Do. Yes, I am definitely buying Conforto. I've been buying, I will continue to buy. Um, and as long as his price doesn't keep moving up too much, I mean this, we're still in a very, very, very affordable range because with how thin outfield is and how quick I look and be like, wow, I really wish I would've drafted more outfielders in the beginning. You know, Conforto's a nice guy to come with outside of the top 200, another outfielder going a little bit later. Maybe some of the results aren't the same is Joe, Adele James, I, I don't, I don't want to get fooled again, but I'm just so enthralled by what the upside could be. But then I just go look at the numbers. I'm like, so he is got the two home runs, he's got the one stolen base, but strikeouts are an issue for him, have been an issue for him. And as far as I can see will continue to be an issue for Joe Adele. Is there any saving grace here? I mean 2 41 average, but he does have 13 strikeouts and 29 at bats also in like 11 games. I what do we make of Joe Adele at this point? Speaker 1 00:27:33 Uh, he needs to find a new organization. He needs an organizational reset because let's face it, like what is his ceiling on the angels? Where does he even fit on this team? Speaker 0 00:27:51 Well, I remember, I remember what the, what it was supposed to be, Speaker 1 00:27:54 Right? You remember what it was supposed to be, but there's no, I mean you have, with the signing of Hunter Renfro like, or like the, the acquisition of Hunter Renfro I should say. There's just nowhere for him to, to play. Um, so I'm selling all my shares, every share and I, you know what, I'm, I'm not hoping that he doesn't succeed cuz he obviously like, you know, at one point was regarded as one of, if not the best prospect in baseball, but like we're just not seeing it. The strikeouts are elevated, the walks don't exist. The power really doesn't exist either, at least at the major league level. And he's not even gonna start the year on the team. And if he does, it's not in an everyday role. Like, there's just not, like even in in Dynasty, like, which is really the only place I think you want him at this point in time. Speaker 1 00:28:54 What is your, what is your desire to keep him in Dynasty? That he one day turns into, you know, a guy and you hope that, you know, hunter Renfro one year thing and moves on you hope Shehe Otani is not there anymore. Like what do we, what do we need for <laugh> for Joe Adel to even get time in this lineup an injury, a significant injury to one of these guys? I just don't see a path to him playing any significant, getting any significant at bats to to matter in fantasy this year. Um, so for Dynasty, like if you wanna hold on to hope sure, but you're, you're really, there's not a lot of value there. I I know Colby, I'm sorry. It sounds like you are one of those people holding onto him in dynasty formats and you know what, I'm sorry. He's just, you know, you ever seen that meme? I'm not that guy. Pe he's not that guy. Peal. He's not that guy. Speaker 0 00:29:48 Yeah, it's I think for Dyna. So I'm I'm with you for redraft. I'm, I'm out. I mean yeah, you know, we've seen it with Jared clinic. You can hit the minor league pitching, get the big leagues and your, your strengths are neutralized and your weaknesses are accentuated and speaking does not Speaker 1 00:30:03 Clinic. By the way, speaking of Jared Clinic, uh, Howard Bender and I actually did a uh, player debate on Jared Clinic out on fantasy today. Uh, Howard took the pro Jared clinic side. I took the con Jared. Speaker 0 00:30:16 Okay, Speaker 1 00:30:17 Good clinic side. Speaker 0 00:30:18 So good. Yeah, I think redraft, I'm like I said, I'm with you on Adele. I'm also out on clinic for that matter. So I'm also with you there in Dynasty. I think as, as bad as it is to say and as much as this is really gonna suck, I think you're stuck with them because everybody in your league already knows that at this point I, I guess he's gonna profile, if he ever does figure it out as a post hype prospect kind of cuz the hype is kind of worn off and everyone knows. I think it's sunk cost. I think you're stuck. I think you have to hold and hope that he figures it out and the second he gets that glimmer of stardom, you text everybody in your league, see he's just a late bloomer. This is the guy we wanted. And that is when you just look to offload him right then and there. I think right now you're selling him for pennies on the dollar and maybe if things work out you can sell 'em for dimes on the dollar. Speaker 1 00:31:08 You're right. I mean's not a great, Speaker 0 00:31:10 You're great idea but that's your best. I mean it's your Speaker 1 00:31:12 Best. No you're right. You're right. It is your best bet because as soon as there's a week of hope he gets, he hits two home runs in a week. It's like, see look this is what we've all thought he was gonna be and then, you know, then, then you offload and you know, but there's just no, there's just nothing that he's done that like is even offering like a glimmer of hope there. There just hasn't been. And 13 strike house in in eight games in spring training doesn't, or in 11 games doesn't suggest anything either. Speaker 0 00:31:45 Yep, yep. I am with you there. An interesting one here. This is a guy I am finding myself become interested in, in the right circumstances. So if you go to roster resource and you look at the monstrosity that is the Oakland team lineup, pitching staff kind of whole ordeal. Organization. Organization, organization, Speaker 1 00:32:09 Yeah. Organization. Speaker 0 00:32:10 Yeah, sure. Your words, not mine even though I said it, but your words not mine, but the number two right now, Shinar Fumi. And when you look here in the spring with where he's going in drafts, there's enough to peak my interest, right? Eight or what is he got 13 strikeouts in eight innings. Yep. He's allowed five earned runs. Yep. He's got eight walks and a 1 75 whip isn't ideal but opponents are only hitting 2 0 7 against them. That's probably because they don't really get a chance to put the bat on the ball that often cause it's either a strikeout or a walk. But with late Fumi is going, I know he is not going to win many games cause Oakland will score a run every other game probably this season when you look at that lineup. But based on where he's going in drafts, so since March 1st, he's outside of the top 500. So basically al only or the deepest of the deepest of the deepest leagues or even considering a guy at that stature. What do you make here of the spring? Like I said, strikeouts are good, walks aren't great, but he's gonna get innings because let's face it, Oakland doesn't have much and nor are they in any rush to promote anything that they do have that could take innings away from him by any means. Speaker 1 00:33:17 Yeah, I mean it, I guess it depends on what kind of category, um, categories your league is, you know, focusing in on, I know I play in a whip league, uh, four, 4.1 walks per nine in Japan, right? What is that gonna translate to the major leagues? Right? Speaker 0 00:33:39 Well apparently a walk in inning, right? Speaker 1 00:33:41 A walking inning. So I mean like, and then conversely like you look at the strikeouts, you're like, holy cow. Like there's serious upside here and he did it in Japan. Like we, he was a strikeout over a strikeout and guy. So it's very give or take, um, in the leagues where like whip matters and, and you're gonna be hindered there. I have a hard time getting to him, um, in a, in a league that, you know, really promotes everything else outside of wins and everything else that matters. I mean he literally look what are we drafting him for Colby? We're drafting him for strikeouts, right? I mean, Speaker 0 00:34:23 Yeah, I mean that's what, that's it. What is inning? Is he maybe Speaker 1 00:34:26 Yeah, innings. He's a, he's a warm body and he's striking people out, which he did. He's done through eight innings in spring and he is done throughout his whole career in Japan. He had, uh, 11, let's see, 11, I don't know what the split here is. I guess he played for two teams in Japan last year. Um, 9.6 strikeouts per nine is pretty serious. 10.3 the year before 10. Like we're drafting him for strikeouts. So if you need strikeouts in late, in your drafts late, sure, a hundred percent ale only leaves Sure strikeouts end of the year draft. Great. Um, but he's really not gonna provide you with much else more often than not. I'm, I'm probably gonna sell eight out of 10 times. But those two times where I, like you said last time where you look at your drafts about outfield, like I wish I drafted more early in drafts where your pitching is kind of like, uh, probably could have used a couple more, um, arms early. He provides you a strikeout upside and he provides you with inning upside. So in like two of 10 drafts, I would, um, I would take Fumi, but like more than that I'm selling. Speaker 0 00:35:43 Yeah, it's, it's the age old debate in fantasy and like, well I guess technically it's not really a debate, but ultimately when you get that late in drafts, you're looking for a reason to draft someone, right? Right. Early on you can find ways to not draft someone and look to someone else, but at this point when you're, I mean he's outside the top 500, he's a chance for innings and yep, you're gonna bite the bullet. And if he was good at other stuff, he probably wouldn't be going outside the top 500, right? We're gonna roll the dice, we're gonna hope for the best. Uh, I mean he hasn't had finger tendonitis, so that's at least a positive, you know, coming from overseas and pitching. So fu is a guy that I like, uh, in interest air in deeper formats. He's someone I'm looking at other leagues, you can leave him go, maybe he pops up as a streamer. If he can learn to not walk a batter inning on top of the one to two, he'll strike out each inning. Um, yeah, whip, he's gonna be a problem. I I think that's unfortunately going to be his destiny here for 2023. So let's talk about this James. Speaker 0 00:36:43 We see it in fantasy football with the tweets that come out of like best shape of their life. We see it in baseball as well. Best shape of their life. We see, we seen it with Jordan Walker who went from pick 2 54 all the way to his max pick since the March one being before like three rounds before his average draft position prior to. So how do we properly evaluate spring training performances and numbers and stats and information for our fantasy drafts? My, I told you this before we started, the way I like to do it is if it's somebody I liked and they're doing well, that validates it. If I don't like them and they've stunk, that validates it as well. That's just very simple logic for me. But there's gonna be guys that you're not necessarily in or out on that we kind of have to take a look at what they've done here in the spring and see what we're thinking for drafts. Speaker 0 00:37:31 So like last week Matt and I talked about, uh, velocities for pitchers that somewhere up, somewhere down. So let's just kind of, we'll wrap it back to that, but what, how much stock do you put into, you know, uh, a pitcher's velocity being down? Like do you look at it just in a vacuum that velocity is down or are you also considering like, all right, this guy's a 10 year vet, he knows not to ramp it up on March 14th, he's gotta be ready for April 3rd, April 4th and something like that. So like how much stock do you put into the tweets that come out of watch it, watch it. His velos down? <laugh>. Speaker 1 00:38:05 I mean I think it's both, right? Like I do think there is merit to the discussion of like, all right, he's a vet and he knows how to pace himself going into the year. Um, I also think spring does matter more for others. I know just like the one example I could point to and this is um, I I guess a little probably outdated and I should pro probably find a new one, was just the start of the year. Mark Tacher was going to be awful when he was on the, on the Yankees and then by the time it got warm out he was going to be great. And that was just like kind of what happened. And it didn't matter what happened in spring training, it didn't matter if he didn't make an out. It didn't matter if he got a hit, a single hit. Speaker 1 00:38:49 It was just what was gonna happen. And I think you can look at things like, um, oh man, look how great they've been. Jared Kennick, he's been great for this now third straight spring, he's been great cause he is been great this spring. He's been his best this spring. But look how that's panned out for him the last two years, right? Um, so I think we need to tread lightly with people that are having really good springs if we ha already have a body of work with them in major league baseball. I think it's harder for guys that like a Jordan Walker who don't have a sample size in the majors, right? Like he just doesn't, he hasn't been past double A. So like we do, I think have to use spring training more as a barometer. Who has he faced? Is he facing, you know, like he's hitting third today. Speaker 1 00:39:42 So is, you know, that obviously he is gonna, or he's facing a starter, a caliber, uh, some major league caliber starter. So I think that there's a lot of different things we can look at. But I do think body of work, you know, matters the most to me just based on like how guys operate in spring and um, but maybe this, maybe the, maybe this debate doesn't matter anymore. Col maybe it's completely different because of all the rule changes this year and maybe this spring should matter more to everybody because everything is changing around the game. So maybe this spring we'll get a better idea going into next year that spring training matters more than it used to. Speaker 0 00:40:24 And that's an interesting thing that Matt pointed out last week was pitch pitchers, velos are down, some are guys that are proven veterans. We don't need to worry about it too much cuz we know that they tend to ramp it up. But how much is the pitch clock affecting? Like, you know, if you're a little tired, just, you know, walk around for a minute, play with the Rozen bag for a couple times, catch a breath and everything and you'll be fine. Like how much is that impacting it? If you're, I I'm, I'm pretty confident not every pitcher is max effort every pitch, right? Cause that just isn't sustainable, right? So, but what I'm, but even if you're not going a hundred percent, if you're going 90% basically every what tw or 15 to 20 seconds for x amount of minutes, like that's going to wear on you if it's a longer inning, right? Speaker 0 00:41:09 So like the the pitch clock, how much is that taking into account here? Like the hitters have to get used to it too. Like you saw like the one, the one uh, clip that went around with Carlos Caros, he was just kind of doing his own thing. The, and then the, the light went on inside of his head and he is, you know, jumped back into the batter's box. It's an adjustment and it, there's a lot going into play. So I think for me, like one thing that I think is important, I wrote about it in a positional spotlight, uh, for the, the ever so fun catcher position with uh, Gabriel Moreno. But you know, his spring numbers have looked good, but beyond just the numbers looking good, the, the story around it is the big thing, like the issue with Moreno is Willis power develop, right? Speaker 0 00:41:49 So he is got a couple home runs this spring. Okay. You know, he, he's got the pop, he can run into a ball every now and again, but he looks like he is making a concerted effort to loft the ball cab. Brian Hayes looks like he's making a concerted effort to lift the baseball. Like that's the stuff that we should be known. Listen, future MVP candidate, I'm telling you like, and technically as long as he gets one vote, I'm not wrong. Cause that's an you're right candidate. So I mean I'm, I don't think it's a hot take by any means, you know, especially when he comes out and goes 50 homers and 70 stolen bases. But Right. It's, I mean he's a guy I'm pushing up everywhere as as, as those in the Discord could see if Cab Brian Hayes is in the question. That's the answer. Speaker 0 00:42:27 So you can, you know, you can save that or just look for someone else other than me to answer that question. Um, as I'm a bit biased there, but it's the, the spring helium is in is pretty insane. And I think we see it a lot with prospects, right? Because they're the, well Jordan Walker's done this, he has to break camp with the team. I mean, does he, you know, service time's still a thing. So like how, how much can you risk pushing him up in the matter of there might be some service time manipulation, although I think someone like he should break camp with the team. Or like when you go to Chicago, um, with, I'm blanking on his name. Oscar Cola, Speaker 1 00:43:06 Oscar Speaker 0 00:43:07 Co colos. I forgot how you say it last time. I blanked there for a second. But like, someone like him too great spring, but where's the playing time coming from? Is he gonna, is he even gonna break camp with the team? Like that's the other question. So like, I think the big thing is the prospects are fun, the prospects are encouraging, but just because they dominate Spring, be careful pushing them up in drafts. I think that's a big thing with Spring cause it's so, it's so easy to get excited about them. Like I'm a victim of it too. I do it just as well. But it, it's a very dangerous game you end up playing. Speaker 1 00:43:36 Yeah, it is a very dangerous game. But you know, it's the game that we play Colby. It's the game that we play. Speaker 0 00:43:43 And even someone that's, I don't know if there's such a thing as like an established prospect, but someone like Grayson Rodriguez, we know he's breaking camp with the team. We know he's in the rotation des despite what they say, he's a frontline arm for that team. But there's an innings limit for him this year. He's not throwing 200 innings or I Baltimore better not let him throw 200 innings. No they won't. No they won't. So like that's something to consider. Like as good as he looks, be careful pushing him up too high. Cuz if you're drafting this s p two or s p three, you're gonna need him to be elite, elite elite per inning. Because you know you're gonna get 140 ish innings and they might kind of be a bit sporadic. Like just, it's, it's very interesting. And the spring is always tough and you know, is the big thing is we talk about it in season and the same applies to the spring. You can look at the box score, but you gotta take it, take it a step further. Like look at Jared clinic. Like can you name any of the ho guys that he's homered off of this spring? Speaker 1 00:44:41 No, Speaker 0 00:44:41 Not one neither can I, I mean if I looked it up I might not even be able to pronounce their names. Like that's just, that's just how it is. Like there's context to everything. If clinic had hit Homers off Scher and you know, other elite starters, you know, maybe we pay a little bit more attention. Um, but check out the player debate, hopefully you side on the side of James and I of anti clinic cuz your fantasy team will be much better for it. <laugh>. I think that's the only real way to, to say that there. Um, sorry. Speaker 1 00:45:10 No, no, no disrespect Howard, but yes you are, you are wrong in this. Speaker 0 00:45:13 Well of course. Yeah, yeah, exactly. No disrespect, but you're wrong <laugh> and I mean that in the nicest way possible boss, but you're wrong. It's just, yep. That's just, that's just how it's gonna be. Um, so I think, let me ask you this. We got, we got another minute or two here quick wrap up. So, uh, closer to the season starts, whether it's Matt and I or James and I or James and Matt, you ever, you never know when I'll take a private jet somewhere just it's a matter of I'm a wild card, I'm a, I'm a flight risk literally, I guess. But looking at price picks, they're doing some m o b season props, two that jumped off the board to me that seemed incredibly low. First one was Brandon Woodruff strikeouts at 193 and a half innings. So I was like, that's interesting for him, given that he's a, I would consider a more premier strikeout arm in the league. Yes, I know he had the, what was it, uh, is it rain Renards ray nods I think he had last year and Speaker 1 00:46:05 Yeah, Speaker 0 00:46:06 And missed a little bit of time, but he had 190 strikeouts and 153 innings and the year before and 179 he had 211. So as long as he stays healthy and I get 28 starts from Woodruff, which as long as he stays healthy, I think I'm gonna get that. How does he not exceed this mark? And I mean, other than when he faces Pittsburgh, look at that division, they're strikeouts galore in that division even with Pittsburgh, unfortunately. But I mean St. Louis is good, but they, you know, I mean that's a, that's a tough foe, but Chicago's offense is interesting but they're going to strike out a ton, a ton. Like that's gonna happen much. Um, Pittsburgh strikes out a ton and then there's other teams in that division too that, you know, you might wanna like Cincinnati Tough Park, they're gonna strike out a lot. So I just don't see a path for Woodruff to not get there unless there's an injury. Speaker 1 00:46:56 Yeah, they're like, like you said, I mean he threw 179 innings the year prior with an injury following. There's just, if he just gets some positive regression on his side in terms of starts, dude, he had his ar like he had his best year last year, 30.6% K rate. Um, I mean everything was just clicking for him. So Yeah, I wanna take the over, I would take the over, so you said it's one 90, what is it? 1 93? Speaker 0 00:47:29 1 93 and a half. Speaker 1 00:47:30 1 93 and a half. Like dude, I would take the over, I'd be comfortable taking the over like almost approaching 200 barring, like he's, there's nothing, there's no injury designation on him. He's healthy going into the year. Like he's gonna have 200 strikeouts this year. It's almost a guarantee. Speaker 0 00:47:48 That's what I'm thinking. I would be comfortable all the way up to, I think I would be automatic click the over to 1 99 and a half. Once we got to 200 and a half, I would take a step and like kind of re-look at things just to be sure. Yeah, I'm auto over 199 and a half first career as long as I clicked this right cuz that's always a possibility. It looks like his, his uh, full season pace is well over 200 strikeouts for well over each year, so. Yep, yep. I'm good there. And the other one that caught my eye really quick, uh, I promise I didn't just look for Pirates players, but I happen to find O'Neill Cruz 23 and a half home runs. I mean he's gotta run into 24 balls this year, right? Like that's pretty much the way I'm looking at it cuz if he barrels it up, it's gone or gonna be close to it cuz he is a, he, he could break Statcast and he's gonna do it in multiple ways, probably with the whiff rate or the breakout rate and the, the max exit velocity and the average exit velocity. Speaker 1 00:48:39 Yeah, the ball hits magic when he makes contact. It's magic. Um, seven 17 home runs in 87 games. Let's, uh, like let's say he just plays 130 games. He's heading 30 home runs, so, and he's gonna, and he's gonna play every day. So, uh, yeah, he's gonna, he's again another one I would have no problem with. Almost up to 30 home runs. Uh, uh, he's gonna be a 30 home run guy this year. Speaker 0 00:49:01 He hit 17 homers in 87 games last year. If we pace that over 162 games or 650 played appearances, we're looking at 31 Homers. Yeah, Speaker 1 00:49:10 He's gonna hit, I think he's gonna hit be around 30 homers this Speaker 0 00:49:13 Year. And just imagine even if, just imagine if he gets to like half a step above horrible against lefties. I don't even need him to be good. Yeah, just like, honestly <laugh>, this sounds really bad, but honestly just even below average right against lefties for him would be insane cuz righties aren't gonna wanna pitch to him. And I believe, if I'm not mistaken, I've seen him lead off a couple times here in Spring. So let's just, let's just maximize those at bats for O'Neill Cruise and you know, we can cut out the Vince Velasquez's hype videos and start doing O'Neill Cruise hype videos because Speaker 1 00:49:46 No, no, I, no, no, please. More, more Vince Velasquez's hype videos. That was amazing. Speaker 0 00:49:51 I actually think he got scratched from his start today too, which is just so fitting. Speaker 1 00:49:55 Well he has to go, he has to go for his, I mean, he is da he is, um, Batista stunk double i, I mean they look exactly alike. Batista the Batista of formerly of the w w e now of, um, you know, ac he's a actor. He's probably the best wrestling actor of all time. Different discussion for a different day, but they look exactly alike. I don't know if you ever put Vince Velazquez and Batista next to one another, but they might be twins, they might be the same person. Have you ever seen them in the same room? I Speaker 0 00:50:22 Don't know. I was just gonna say I, I haven't, so I think, I think, I think you might be right, but yeah, it was so fitting, you know, hype, video, scratch, dark, it just scratch start. It's like clockwork for that guy. Unfortunately. Maybe he can stay healthy and lead Pittsburgh to a third place finish in that division, but we, we will see. But, uh, James, that's gonna put a wrap on the episode this week. Um, while I don't, you recite your, uh, your Twitter handle so people know where to find you as the king of the underscore cuz uh, if you look for that, you do not pop up. Um, so just wanna clarify that with everybody. Speaker 1 00:50:55 Yes, the king of the underscore does have an ad and it is at the underscore reel underscore grande. Speaker 0 00:51:01 And you can find me on Twitter at Colby r Conway. Make sure you head over to fantasy Check out all of the great content, including the fantasy Alarm, fantasy Baseball draft guide. It is free, it is free. Tons of great content in there. And of course, keep all the questions coming in the Discord channel. We'll be happy to answer them there. So give James a follow on Twitter, give me a follow on Twitter, and we will see you next week for the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

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