Speaker 1 00:00:07 And welcome into the latest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball podcast. I'm Colby Conway at Colby r Conway on Twitter and with me as always. Another week, another day closer to pitchers and catchers reporting is Matt Sells at The Sales Man on Twitter. So Matt, how is everything going for you?
Speaker 2 00:00:25 Uh, going pretty well, pretty well. Pretty fun Super Bowl weekend. Um, but now it's uh, you know, heads down and, uh, headed towards, uh, MLB season and NASCAR season cuz the Daytona 500 is this weekend. Um, so yeah. So those two sports getting going about the same time should be, yeah, basically the real start to my year here is, is what I <laugh> is what I take it as.
Speaker 1 00:00:52 You're gonna be like that gif of the, I don't remember what it is, but the pounding of the keyboards almost frantically. Um, just cuz there's so much due, so much to type, so much to get sent in. But you know, it's the, the beauty of the season I guess. Right? Cuz you can't complain cuz once baseball kicks off, we will literally until July have very few days of nothing sports related cuz baseball as we know is on, you know, darn near every day, which is amazing.
Speaker 2 00:01:19 Yep. Um, it's, it's kinda like the, uh, you know, beggars can't be choosers type type thing where I love baseball and I love NASCAR and I'm happy both are back and then I can't be like, oh well yeah, it'd be awesome if there was like some more off days. Cuz that's, that's what the off season's for. So, uh, you know, it, it's a, it's a pretty good way for me to mark the year <laugh> is, is how I look at it.
Speaker 1 00:01:44 Absolutely. And you know, of course the draft guide is still out, content is still pouring out, it is still free. That has not changed. So head over to fantasy alarm.com and access your copy. You can get your copy if you want. I guess if you download, you know, some of the articles is PDFs, you can get your hands on it. But get your access to the Fantasy on Fancy Baseball draft guide [email protected]
Once again, it is free. Tons of great content coming out there. I continue to put out articles on catchers in second base about, you know, this past or this most recent one was in terms of depth at the position and Matt, we've talked about the catcher being a rather sneaky position in terms of depth, but we have it covered all positions, tons of great content, whatever your league is, you in DFS content, there is stuff for that. If you play in dynasty league, there are articles for that so much in the draft guide. Once again, it is free. But Matt, I wanna talk to you first. They, we had a trade, um, I was away this weekend, saw the alert on my phone and two, I don't wanna say former big names, but it seems like in years past the names have carried more weight than they made maybe do now in 2023. So talk to me a little bit about the Marlins and age trade that we saw over the weekend.
Speaker 2 00:02:59 Um, yeah, it was, I agree with you. It's hard to, um, def define like I saw the alert come across as two former top six picks and it's like, okay, but that means less in baseball than it does in basically any other sport, uh, to be honest. Um, yeah, so JJ Bday is headed from the, uh, Marlins farm system to Oakland and in return, uh, Oakland has given up on AJ Puck ever being anything for them. So he's headed back to Miami in uh, basically a one for one switch here. Uh, for players who look puck has had MLB time, hasn't necessarily amounted so much. Um, so it, it's hard for me to judge based on this because, um, yeah, you know, injuries and um, and whatnot have, uh, have sapped him of any real time in the majors. Um, so we'll see. We'll see what Miami can do with him because I think we all agree that the stuff may still be there if he can just stay healthy. Um, and they, you know, they, they took another lefty picture from, from Oakland last year when they got Jesus zao. Um, so perhaps they're thinking they can work wonders with, with puck like they did with Zao maybe. I don't know. What's, what's your view on this, on this trait?
Speaker 1 00:04:45 I mean lemme start with the, the puck side of things. I think that one is more enticing because we've kind of seen what puck can be when healthy is he going to start? No, when you look at roster resource, he's one of not two, not three, but not four guys with the CL next to his name. So potentially he could be in the mix as a closer for Miami who might not be, they might be sneaky good this year. I kind of like what they're doing there in Miami. So maybe Puck can work his way into save opportunities or maybe at least splitting some of them on a purning basis. His raw stuff is phenomenal or can be phenomenal should I say if Miami can work the little magic with him, keep the strikeouts up, let him be effective on a puring basis. I think he's a reliever that I'm gonna have some shares of this season.
Speaker 1 00:05:36 Again, I at this point as if we're recording here on February 14th, is AJ Puck the closer? I can't definitively state that, nor would I put my money on that, but later on in drafts, I mean why not take a chance on Puck? Right? What if he does? Because here's the thing, we talked about it. Once you get past the top, maybe even 150 picks, you're looking for a reason to buy into somebody. Yes there is enough to like with Puck to see and even if he's not the closer, if your league values holds, the strikeouts are good, he is routinely a 10 plus K per nine guy and the stuff is there. He just really has to stay healthy and be in a system to put it all together. And we see Miami do it a little bit with pitchers before.
Speaker 2 00:06:18 Yeah, I mean look, there's no defined closer in Miami as of yet. I'm not sure there will be this year. They may just run with the hot hand. Um, so if he can stay on the mound, that's enough for me to be considering Puck as a flyer late in drafts. Especially if you're in a holds league. Cause a hold is basically being brought in in a safe situation after the starting pitcher comes outta the game. Right? Um, so hard for me to say no to that. Um, but don't go, don't go too crazy. Don't be like, oh he is a lefty. Jesus Zao was decent in Miami, puck could close. Miami's offense is only so-so, so there's like, you know, maybe we're looking at 25 total saves from Miami. Don't be like, oh puck's gonna get like 20 of 'em. No, I think he gets a handful tops. Um, but that's enough to intrigue you as a late round flyer, right?
Speaker 1 00:07:28 Yeah. And since January 1st, I mean puck's going off the board at pick 4 42 with a min pick of 2 32, I mean 2 32 maybe a bit lofty for me, but I mean once you get past about 2 50, 2 65, I mean, why the heck not do you not look at a guy like AJ Puck? Cuz at that point outside of right now, let's just, let's assume that a d p stays true. Everybody goes around right where they're going, which I know it's not how it works, but I mean other guys outside of pick 400 typically, and I'm making an assumption, aren't exactly all that close to save opportunities. Puck may only be one injury not to him. Hopefully, fingers crossed, one injury away from somebody else getting hurt to him stepping into that closer role for that team. So a lot to like with Puck there. Now let me ask you about JJ Bday cuz he was a another kind of big name prospect and he's, he's progressed through the minors.
Speaker 1 00:08:21 The, some of the numbers aren't exactly going the way that you quite like, like the power last year, 20 homers and 85 games in AAA solid. However, that 2 28 average and 27% strikeout rate, not so much, but he did post a 16% walk rate. So that is interesting. So what is Oakland kind of getting here with JJ Bday other than the fact that they're trying to run out this lineup that I'm gonna read to you in a little bit that I just cannot believe a major league team is running outta lineup with these players in it for 2023.
Speaker 2 00:08:55 Like, I mean yeah, Oakland's lineup is heinous like
Speaker 1 00:08:59 It's, it's a good word for it,
Speaker 2 00:09:01 It's atrocious. Um, we can keep going through s a t words I guess. Um, he theoretically helps it. I mean but at this point anybody might help that lineup, right? Um, yeah I think, I think Miami has was basically like, well there's like a little bit of power there, but the question is, is he actually going to be able to make enough contact on a regular basis to um, to, to realize that power? Like he came up for uh, about a third of the season last year in Miami and sure five homers and a third of the season paces out to about 15, right? Four steels paces out to about 10 to 12 and a third of a season. The problem is he hit 1 67, like that's not great and his K rate has gone up every single stop in the, uh, in, in the system, right? It went up from high A, which was 19.2, then it went up from that AA 21 6, then it jumped at AAA to 27. Now it was 28 2 in the majors, it's not sustainable. Um, and now he's going to the least friendly hitters park in baseball. Um, that's, it's not all that appealing to be perfectly honest
Speaker 1 00:10:34 And I don't want to be, you know, rude to the 25 year old kind of post hype prospect and I think we can call 'em that at this point. But I mean what are we re realistically looking at best case scenario for 2023? Like is best case scenario like 15 home runs but like a two 15 batting average. I mean even last year he hit 1 67 but his expected batting average is only one 90. I think he'll be above the Mendoza line, but can we get really anything in terms of fantasy value from ADE this year? Cuz he hasn't really run a ton in the minor. Sure he had four stolen bases last year, but I mean at what point, I know he is going late and he is not overly pricey, but at what, at what point do you get to that mark where a guy who hits two 10 with 10 to 12 homers and four to six stolen bases is helpful for your team outside of like NL only or al only formats that value O B P over batting average maybe.
Speaker 2 00:11:30 Yeah I think maybe
Speaker 1 00:11:31 But he's like a niche guy it almost seems like for this year. Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:11:35 I mean there's gonna be certain people who are excited cuz they remember the name JJ Day from being a prospect and then not actually look up um, uh, not actually look up what he's done in his career. <laugh> I should say. Cuz on the service, if I told you JJ Bday, he'd be like, oh, I remember when the Marlins took that guy as part of their like restocking of their outfield a couple years ago in the draft, right? He was a big enough prospect and he's kind of had his name thrown about and then he came up for a third of a season last year, you know, like, ooh, five homers sweet. And then you go, oh maybe I should have looked a little deeper. Um, so yeah, he is a, he is a niche guy. I don't particularly have any interest in joining that niche in in <laugh> in drafts though is the problem.
Speaker 1 00:12:30 Yep. I think I'm right there with you. Now talk about a team with uncertainty in the backend of their pen as well. Arizona made a move that in reality I think I like a good bit in terms of fantasy. I don't know how I feel about it. So Arizona inc. Andrew Chaffin to a deal after he spent quite a few years in um, Detroit and now when you look at it, you know, we just talked about Miami having four potential closers per roster resource. There are five for Arizona. Yes. One would have to think Mark Melanson maybe starts the year as the guy who will get the majority of the opportunities maybe. But at 37 he's no, he's no spring chicken anymore. So Chaffin very good lefty, I believe it's his slider is his wipe out pitch. That's what he can use to get batters out. Tough on left-handers for the most part. Does he have a path to saves and if so, do you think it's not before long that he emerges as the ninth inning guy for Arizona or do you see closer by committee all 2023?
Speaker 2 00:13:31 I mean he has a chance it saves, right? Like he's gotten saves previously. Not like he's never been the lockdown closer. Like he's had six saves in the last uh, three seasons, right? So, um, who knows, but this is a little bit of a re like he's rejoining Arizona, right? He came up with Arizona was with them through 2019 and then left and then it's kind of traveled around a little bit. And look, the last couple of years his peripheral peripherals have been pretty good. Sub 2 8 5 e r a both years. The Phipps on those are just over thr you know, right about three in that case, strikeout rates are decent. Walk rate has been very good. Um, doesn't really let the ball leave the park although mm-hmm <affirmative> pitching in Detroit, it'd be hard to give up. Home runs <laugh>. Um, so I think he's got a path for saves.
Speaker 2 00:14:34 I'm not sure that they go with a lockdown closer. They tried that last year in Mark Melanson a little bit and that didn't exactly go <laugh> go their way. Um, the one thing that's in his favor is that lefty close can be a tough matchup for hitters and oftentimes you don't see a team do that cuz they don't have enough lefties in the pen to really just dedicate uh, one guy as the closer. But in Arizona's case right now, assuming that all of these guys make the roster, Chaffin is the third lefty in that pen, which means they've got two others that they can use for lefty on lefty game situations, which are harder to do now because of the three batter rule obviously. Um, but that plays in his favor as does the fact that he's had pretty good numbers the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 00:15:30 So there's a chance, um, again, this is kind of like a, um, if you're drafting right now, I might stay away from the Arizona bullpen until very late and then you just take a shot. Because if you, if you're listening to this and go, well they just said that Chaffin had good numbers and and he's pitched for Arizona before and all that, and you go, okay, I'm gonna take Chaffin as my number two closer. Well what happens if he's not a closer then he just blew an earlier draft pick. Then you needed to on a guy like Chaffin because Ginkgo got some saves last year, man, ply got some saves last year. Lansing got saves last year, you know, and who knows if any one of those guys actually is the closer or they don't just turn to, you know, another guy that we don't really see, that we don't really see coming cuz they have a couple of dudes coming up in the, in the minors that could do it. Um, I know they don't really want Dre Jameson to be a reliever, but what happens if they call up Dre Jameson to be a closer?
Speaker 1 00:16:41 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:16:42 Possible. Not likely, but possible. So I, right now if you're drafting early, I am leaning towards staying away from the Arizona bullpen until we get a little bit more clarity.
Speaker 1 00:16:52 I think that's the best way to attack it. Cuz you know, if you, you wanna try to be the smartest person in the room, sure you could say, well there's great value right now and I'll jump on it here and sure. But if that doesn't work out, you are just now the dare I say maybe not the smartest person in the room and everything backfires.
Speaker 2 00:17:10 Yeah, exactly. Then all that happens is you waste the draft pick that doesn't actually bring you any, doesn't actually bring you anything. So
Speaker 1 00:17:18 It's, and what you're and what you're like your risk versus reward in this scenario is that you, oh, I think I'm gonna be the smartest person in the room. Let's look at the bullpen. Yeah, I think Andrew Chapin's gonna emerge as the guy for saves. You take him for that and really ar uh, neither of us seem to be in full agreeance that Arizona's ever gonna lock down one singular guy. So now basically all you've done is push up a guy who maybe gets the majority of the save chances or maybe even only splits them. So
Speaker 2 00:17:46 I mean let's be let, I know that the projections aren't everything and and whatnot, but right now if you go to RA resource on fan grass, they have the five guys listed as closer, uh, with, with a possibility of getting saves, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative>, the fewest saves for one of those guys is four, the most is 10th. So they're all within, you're talking about splitting handfuls of saves here right now. Not that projections are gospel, we're just saying all of these guys are projected for between 60 and 64 innings pitched. All of them are projected for, well let's say almost all cuz Melanson doesn't really strike a whole lot of dudes out, but four of the five of them are projected for between 62 and 68 strikeouts. So even all of the projection systems are telling you they don't really know what's going on there. There's guys that could all stand a chance and if it winds up being just a matchup by matchup or hot hand guy and they split it three ways, which teams have done before. Like we've seen teams do this with saves which irritates the Jesus outta everybody, right? If if you're telling me that, let's say there's what 1822, about 30 or so saves that they're projecting for Arizona and you wind up with three dudes with 10 saves a piece, does that really help you?
Speaker 1 00:19:26 No.
Speaker 2 00:19:28 Yeah. So it's a little tough for me to get on board with any one particular now not saying they have no value, they do but don't draft one of these guys. Assuming you're getting 25 plus saves out of 'em. Yep. Cause that's not the case.
Speaker 1 00:19:43 Well let's, let's see, let's see. Matt sells at the Sales Man on Twitter. Get a little bit animated with this one cuz this one is fun. So, uh, red Sox president of baseball operations came out on Tuesday AK as the day we're recording saying that he wouldn't personally bet on Adelberto Mani being ready for opening day. So there's one thing we're gonna get to which just is the tip of the iceberg for the Boston off season. But then just to make matters more fun, reading an article here, uh, from masslive.com and Alex Cora was talking about Aberman, right? Happened to say that he was Alexander esque as far as like tall, strong and big legs. And all I can think of is, boy you are in for a massive disappointment once you see him actually start playing and step in the batter's box cuz he is not Xander Reque in the batter's box. That's for sure.
Speaker 2 00:20:39 Yeah. I don't think I've ever once looked at Bogart's in almond and got, hey those are the same dudes. If they had different jerseys on, I wouldn't be able to tell him apart. I don't think that's the case at all. Um, if he was that strong where all the homers go for Mani, like I it's just a weird, like Alex CORs had a weird week too cuz he just called the bass pizza boxes. Yeah, I if you saw, he's, he's having a hell of a time right now. I don't know if you saw that quote, but he was, he was talking about how he agreed with the rule that that uh, enlarges the basis, which by the way, I'm out later today. Hopefully there should be an ar a draft guide article about the rules changes that are coming in 2023. Uh, but the basins are getting bigger in case anybody didn't realize they're going from 15 inches up to 18 inches on all sides.
Speaker 2 00:21:35 Um, or safety concerns. And then there's also some hope that maybe it'll lead to a little bit more steels cuz guys will have a little bit more room to finagle where their fingers and hands and legs get, you know, make contact with the bag. But Alex Goer was saying, yeah, I agree with it, but they look like pizza boxes. I'm just like, okay, but 15 inch basis kinda look like pizza boxes too. Like what, how big of a pizza are you getting that the jump in three inches now reminds you more of a pizza box, um, than the 15 inch ones. I it's a very odd thing. But back to the outer Monsey. Yeah, they, when they traded for him, I think they came out and said that they were hopeful that he'd be ready for opening day. But keep in mind they, they traded for him to replace an injured Trevor story.
Speaker 2 00:22:35 So you let Xander Bogart's walk cuz you don't wanna pay him for some anan reason. And then you say, okay, well we're fine. We got Trevor's story who then apparently had a monster injury that nobody on your medical staff knew about until after the season. And to the point where he may miss the whole season. There's some speculation the Trevor story may not be ready for the entire season. I think that's less likely. I think he misses the first half. Um, but then you go out and trade for an injured guy like man Desi's literally been injured for like three years at this point, right? Yes. I mean you can just ask Royals fans, they haven't seen him like, this is why we got Nicki Lopez in the first place. Like all of the debate about, well, you know, why, who's Nicki Lopez there one, you know, he came up cause Mani was hurt, he couldn't play.
Speaker 2 00:23:39 Um, and he's always been hurt. He's not been on the field very much in like two and a half seasons. So I, it's not a shock to me that he's not gonna be ready for opening day. I just don't know what the Red Sox are doing at this point. And I'm sorry Boston fans. I truly am because baseball is better when the Red Sox are competent and they don't appear to be competent right now. Um, yeah, I I I don't know. I I don't know what to <laugh>. I don't know what to do with him and saying, yeah, we, the guy we traded for isn't healthy. Well I mean I think everybody knew that.
Speaker 1 00:24:15 Yeah. And it's just, I mean his, the speed's legit. Don't get me wrong, we all know that. And I mean Cora and one another quote that they have there, it says quote, we still have to work on the offensive side of it <inaudible> just to make sure he gets on base at a higher rate. But this guy I saw one season, his on base percent was 3 0 8 and he stole 24 bases. So the stolen base aspect is real. It feels like we're grasping for straws, for compliments for this guy.
Speaker 2 00:24:41 I mean you're gonna call him Xander ask and then you're gonna say he has to work on his offense. Well I'm sorry, didn't Senator Bogarts not have any concerns about his offense? I mean like the last time that, so Elder Bears has played more than a hundred games
Speaker 1 00:25:03 Once,
Speaker 2 00:25:04 Once. Now in fairness, if you want to go based on percentage, he played 59 games of the 60 games in 2020.
Speaker 1 00:25:11 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:25:12 Okay. So that we can count as a full season in terms of percentage of games played. The sheer number wasn't there. Cause he only played 60 games in 2020. So in reality, if you really wanna look at it, he's only played one full season and it had to be less than 60 games.
Speaker 1 00:25:28 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:25:29 Right? Because 102 is only 60% of 160 something games. Right. Something like that. And his strikeout rate in the majors has never been lower than 26 and a half percent. Yep. And it's been over 31, 2, 3, 4, 5 different seasons regardless of how many games were played.
Speaker 1 00:25:54 Yeah. And I mean when you get to the Zander s quote or the, that mentioning of it later on too, another quote, the offensive part of it will help him. He can bunt whenever he feels like. So we're excited about it. They don't sound excited about it.
Speaker 2 00:26:07 You really gonna bunt they got rid of the shift and now you're gonna blunt.
Speaker 1 00:26:13 I mean listen,
Speaker 2 00:26:14 I'm I I am starting to lose faith in Alex Gore as a manager, to be perfectly honest. Like if this is your game plan is whenever he gets back he can just bun really.
Speaker 1 00:26:27 Which I'm sure that no defense is not going to expect.
Speaker 2 00:26:31 I mean he's
Speaker 1 00:26:32 Or at least be ready for it.
Speaker 2 00:26:34 He's a speed guy. That's what you do with Speed Guys is you, is you have them bunt like Trey Turner got injured that season cuz Bunted cuz he was trying to bump for a hit and broke his finger. Like the problem with modesty is his hamstrings. So now you're gonna put him in a situation where he has to actually leg something out. Oh my god. Alex Cora.
Speaker 1 00:27:00 Yeah, they're in trouble.
Speaker 2 00:27:01 And, and by the way, if we're talking about Zander esque, the like Bogart's had a max of 15 steels in a season and that was back in 2017. He hasn't stolen more than eight bags in a year since then. Okay. In terms of Homers, he's topped uh, disease's high number for Homers in a season was what? 14, 14 and 2018. So Bogarts has topped that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 times since 2016, which is five out of seven seasons and he almost topped it in 2020 only playing 56 games. Yep. Not to mention he's hit 2 88 or better every year since 2018. And man disease never hit better than 2 76.
Speaker 1 00:28:04 The vibe I'm getting is that if you or I were playing shortstop for them too, it would be like yeah it's Xander s because we're just both a member of the Boston Red Sox that play shortstop. I think that's where the comparisons end.
Speaker 2 00:28:16 I mean to be honest, if I was out there and they called me Xander que only because I was playing shortstop, I'd find that hilarious cuz I'm <laugh> completely different shade of human being, different size, different weight. And I'm also a different hand than, uh, <laugh> than than Bogarts
Speaker 1 00:28:35 Anyway, you know what I'm saying?
Speaker 2 00:28:37 Yeah. Who
Speaker 1 00:28:38 Knows where the comparisons end.
Speaker 2 00:28:40 Like somebody went out there, I guarantee you John Henry said, Hey Cora, go out there and tried to sell this so that we don't absolutely bomb on ticket sales. And that was the best he came up with in a, in a no win situation.
Speaker 1 00:28:56 I think the pizza box was better for the ticket sales.
Speaker 2 00:29:01 I mean the only way they're gonna sell tickets is if they actually like give away pizza every time they steal a base. Which
Speaker 1 00:29:07 That would be pretty cool.
Speaker 2 00:29:08 Which pizza, which pizza places would be fine with as long as Monte's not on the field, which it doesn't sound like he's going to be so
Speaker 1 00:29:15 Nothing to worry about then. Boston safe.
Speaker 2 00:29:17 Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 00:29:18 Boston pizzerias are in the clear. So that's just some news and notes that we had. So of course once again, fantasy alarm.com get your access to the fantasy alarm fantasy baseball draft guide. It is free. Tons of great content in there, new contents coming out every single day. Use all of that content leading up to your drafts or if you're just starting to get ready for some M L B D F S action, it'll be, it'll be all there for you. So Matt, last week we talked about the the number one pick. If there was a unanimous number one pick. So if you haven't listened to that episode, make sure you go check it out wherever you listen to your podcast. But this week we're gonna be talking about where is it best to be in drafts this year? So say you're doing a new startup or maybe your league does like tg, F B I where you get to, I think it's the K D S I think is what I think it's the acronym
Speaker 2 00:30:06 For it. The Kentucky Derby system.
Speaker 1 00:30:08 Yeah, the k d s. So you can do that and you can kind of pick where you, where you want to be. So after talking about last week with where you're both in agreement that there's not really a true unanimous number one overall pick, where do you think it's best to be in drafts this year, Matthew, if someone's starting a lead, they get to pick where they want to be or you know, maybe they can work themselves around the draft order heading into drafts this year. Where are you kind of liking if you've done any drafts, like teams that you've liked out of certain spots or plans that you have that work better from a certain part of the draft?
Speaker 2 00:30:39 Um, so this is an excellent question. Um, I'm saying basically anywhere if you're at a 12, let's just base this off of 12 teamers. Yeah. Cause it's what most, uh, leagues are, I'm gonna say anywhere from like fifth on back. It's perfectly fine with me to be honest. Um, I've grown to love picking towards the end of the first round in draft. So like the last three, four picks and then you get to basically double up. I wouldn't say that I love being on the wheel per se, um, but I'm also fine this year being in the middle because there's so much value you can find everywhere that I basically would rather just let people make picks and let the, let the draft fall to me. Like I don't want to be, and that sounds we like, I would love to have Trey Turner, right? But in order to do that, I've gotta have the top first or second pick and then you're sitting there waiting like 20 something picks and that's too long for me to have to wait in this year's draft. But if I'm picking fifth on back, I basically Kim finagle two first rounders out of my first two picks I would say. Um, so that, that's kind of my view of it this year.
Speaker 1 00:32:04 Typically in most years, especially leading up to this one, I wanted the ends of the draft. I didn't care if you put me at one, two or three or in this case 10 or 11 or 12. I wanted the ends. That's where I felt like my teams were the best. That's where I liked value and I could go from there This year though, I'm not opposed to the middle. I think I, I still like the wheel, I still have an affinity for the wheel. Um, more so in the back part of the, of the draft for this year. But looking at it, we talked about it like Trey Turner's my guy at number one. If I'm picking early and I have that second pick, if I don't get Trey Turner, I don't want to have to choose between that next three or four guys that I have there.
Speaker 1 00:32:51 I'd almost rather be five and let it be made for me type thing. Cause I'm fine with any of those five. So I'd almost, I almost think I want one or anywhere after like five I think is where I pretty much settle in cuz two, three or four I'm making a decision that I'm, it's just a guy that I'm either gonna push up or who I believe in or I don't really like that spot. Whereas if you're at the one, you're guaranteed your guy, no matter who it is, you're guaranteed no one picks before you, you're safe after five. If somebody else makes a bold move, maybe somebody you had in the top five drops to you and later on as the first round goes, that's where value gets to and you and who knows what if it goes hitter heavy and you wanna double tap starters, like at the end getting that at 1213 is beautiful, you know, and then when everyone has to account for you and go pitchers, that's when you can come back with your hitter. So I think I'm, I'm, I am less opposed to the middle of drafts this year than I have been in recent years for sure. Cuz there's the first round is not as cut and dry as it usually is. There is value to be had, right?
Speaker 2 00:33:56 Like we, like we said last week as of last week there were seven different guys who had gone number one overall and then there was two guys who had a, who had the best, the highest pick being second. So that's nine guys who have either been picked first or second so far since January 1st. So if I'm picking anywhere in the middle, I'm back. Basically what I'm guaranteeing myself is getting at least a share of a guy who other people have thought had been worthy of the number one overall pick, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative> and then you just let it be who, because I'm with you. Last week we basically said in our opinion that Trey Turner's the clear cut number one to us after that I we're splitting hairs on who and why and what position you're going after, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative>. So yeah I'm fine going like five on back and just let other people make the decision and you just scoop up value where you spot it. Um, if, if I guess I'm fineing with number one O, obviously I'm fineing with number one cuz I get Trey Turner. But my thought on that is that I don't want to have to wait another 20 something picks for that much value to come back to me is my only problem with that trade off.
Speaker 1 00:35:31 Yeah and like if we look at it here, like we talk about ADP from January 1st to February 14th. So if we're just gonna look, let's just do the top, do the top three picks per se for each spot just based on the ad p at at uh, the N F B C. So team one, Trey Turner, J t Rio Muto, Michael Harris, I know Michael Harris is one of my bus guys, but Turner Rio Muto is not a bad start. Aya Goldschmidt and Alara out of the two. I like that Ramirez, Riley deGrom, okay Judge Deborah's Daz at four judge could easily go two in any of these drafts, you know what I mean? And like at this point I'd rather 'em wait but then like Team five or that pick five Jro, Mike Trout, Francisco Linor, then they could still get Rodan. So they're still getting an A. So I'm good with that one. Team six, Kyle, Tucker, Garrett, Cole, Nolan Anado, Justin Verlander, yes please. Otani Alonzo Altuve Andis. Okay. And then you just kinda like work your way through in the, like the back half, like Team 11 gets Mooky bets, Manny Machado, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Nola and Luis Castillo. And this is just based off ad p looking at these teams. It's that middle to late that I've really fallen in love with and again, right?
Speaker 2 00:36:40 Cause you just get to stack value upon value upon value. Yes. And all of the guys we just mentioned are so close that if you screw it up and you and and you picked it, you'd be kicking yourself. But if you get the guy that just falls to you, then it's hard to be upset at whatever the outcome is, right? Like if, if I pick second and I go with a kuya over Jose Ramirez or Judge or Tucker and Akuna gets injured and Mrs. Half a season and I'm like, dang it, I should have gone with those other guys, then you're gonna be pretty upset with yourself. But if you're picking fifth and you land on Kyle Tucker, cuz the other five people took, you know, somebody reached a little bit and and went for Julio Rodriguez, orge Otani or even Bobby Wit or whatever and you're like cool I got a guy who could go 30 30 and all I had to do was sit there and wait that's fine with me, right? Like the, the middle and then stacking the next two, three rounds just based on e D P. I think you went up with a better all around team in the middle of the draft than you do at the first pick.
Speaker 1 00:38:09 And, and I think you're right cuz I mean when you're looking at the a DP like Turner goes one, that's who we are in agree agreeance with. But like after that a Kuya Ramirez, judge Rodriguez, Kyle Tucker, I'm okay with waiting and just getting whoever comes to me if I'm at that six pick any one of those guys, I'm fine.
Speaker 2 00:38:24 Like if you're, if you're in a 12 team league and you pick Turner, your next pick comes with the last pick of the second round, which would be pick 24, right? Yeah. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. So then you're sitting there in Rio Muto, okay, best catcher, but are you really gonna, like now you've got, the other thing to consider is do you really want two Phillies to search your team? Like, you know what? Whatnot, let's just say you take Rio Muto, okay, but am I in love with Michael Harris is the next guy off the board? No. Am I in love with Sandy Al Qar after we just said he's probably gonna regress some not as my first pitcher. I mean you have other choices obviously, but like by that point you've almost assuredly missed out on Cole and Burns and you know, whatnot. Or you're gonna have to theoretically quote unquote reach for um, a guy like Carlos Rodan or Woodruff or you know, it's just a weird spot to me it seems like, okay great if Austen Riley slips great, you can take him there and then the wheel, but the problem is in the third round, I feel like all of that is a little bit of a reach at that point.
Speaker 2 00:39:46 Mm-hmm <affirmative> or you're settling for a guy who shouldn't be that high.
Speaker 1 00:39:51 Yeah. Yeah. And it's, it's the, the interesting thing too, just from looking at it, when you look at some of the names and you're looking at how the draft goes, even just at a d p it almost seems like the earlier you draft outside of one, it almost seems like you're pushing up earlier in the draft and you almost don't get your chances for value until later, right? Whereas like later, like in the, like looking at this like the last two guys getting picked in the first round just by ADP or Moki Bets and VLA Guerrero Jr. Could they easily be pushed up to eight, nine? Sure.
Speaker 2 00:40:25 I mean v his highest two.
Speaker 1 00:40:27 Exactly. So like with, with the, with the vast disparity that we have seen so far in these drafts, you don't have to be the guy that pushes up. Uh, don't get me wrong, if I have the third overall pick, I might push Kyle Tucker up to three because I can at the same point I could do a draft a week later and get Kyle Tucker at seven because it seems like everybody's undervaluing him again. But you, I mean value is, so value's going to be important this year because the lack of the clear cut, you know, in like we talked about last episode in past seasons the draft started at four or the draft started at five cuz everybody knew what the top X number of picks were gonna be.
Speaker 2 00:41:07 I mean to give you an idea, if you go all the way down through, geez, I don't know you gotta go, you gotta go for a while here in terms of um, I'm looking at mid max picks and guys that are within one round of the mini max, there's only like five dudes in the entire draft right now who are within five picks or within one round of their min-max, right? So like Trey Turner has a minick of one and a max of seven. So the latest he's gone in his draft is seventh, which by the way, kudos to you sir or ma'am whoever got 'em at seven, awesome job. Uh, <unk> is gone first or eight or as far back as eighth Jose Ramirez first or as far back as eighth Julio Rodriguez first or as far back as ninth. Those are the only five dudes who are within a round of each other in MinMax picks, right?
Speaker 2 00:42:11 Even Kyle Tucker, he's gone as high as second or as far back as 18th show. Hey Otani, he's gone either first or as far back as 24th, right? Like that's wide open. That is massively wide open to the point where like Garrett Cole has gone as high as sixth, then as low as 40. Like there is a massive disparity showing up. Uh, Josh Hader who is by the way right now is 46th overall in a d p has gone as high in as 22nd and as low is a hundred and 20th. There's a hundred pick difference between his min-max and he's 46th on a d p. Like it's insane how far apart Devin Williams is 125 spot difference in in his MinMax and he's just outside the top 60 in a d p
Speaker 1 00:43:09 The disparity is real.
Speaker 2 00:43:11 Ryan Presley, right? Lazia. So these are a lot of closers and obviously that speaks to some of it is gonna be if you're in a, in a, you know, a league format that prioritizes closers versus ones where they basically count like you know, most of us count closers but still like Alloy Jimenez has a 70 pick difference between min-Max. Okay? Like these are all guys who are in the top 100 and a D p and they all have, George Springer has a 66 pick difference between MinMax and he's 75th and a D p. So there's value everywhere but if you're picking first it might take you several more rounds to find the value than if you're picking in the middle of the draft.
Speaker 1 00:43:55 Yep, I would agree on that. And to wrap up this week's episode over on prize picks, they are, or I should say they have dropped a limited board of some MLB props for the season. So I was looking at 'em a couple and just seeing anything that jumped out to me want to get your opinion on these. Matt, obviously we'll be doing prize picks throughout the baseball season I'm sure just like we did last year. But one of the first ones that jumped off at me or to me Mash should says Brandon Woodruff had 193 and a half strikeouts for the season. Woodruff had 211 in 2021 and then he had 190 and 26 fewer innings last year. So he was one start away last year to basically eclipsing this 193 and a half. Many of the popular projection sites like the bat have 'em at what has at 1 96, ATTC at 1 99. Pretty much everything in the mid to upper one 90 s. This line seems a bit low to me, but as of here on February 14th as we're recording this, would you be interested in that over on Woodruff 193 and a half strikeouts for the season?
Speaker 2 00:44:58 Uh, yes. What have we said about the Cubs lineup?
Speaker 1 00:45:03 They're gonna be fun but they're gonna strike out a ton,
Speaker 2 00:45:06 Right? Uh, he's gonna face them a few times this year for sure. Um, you know, other lineups in that division aren't great, aside from the Cardinals in Pittsburgh. This is why we've basically picked the Cardinals as the, the fairly consistent <laugh> winner of the L central. Um, I think some stuff has to go wrong for him not to hit the over here. So I would be, yeah, I would be taking the over,
Speaker 1 00:45:35 Yeah that that line just like I said, it just seemed low, something
Speaker 2 00:45:39 Was low If it was like 1 97 and a half, I'd have to think about it.
Speaker 1 00:45:43 Yeah, the 1 93 though sign me up. And then the other one that I jumped that came out to me, they have strikeouts and home runs. It's all they have right now. Aaron Judge was at 46 and a half. Your don was 39 and a half show. Hey Otani at 34 and a half is appealing to an extent. That one I'm kind of on the fence on, but Vladi Jr 39 and a half, he had 48 back in 2021. Now we only had 32 last year. Some different park adjustments there. Many of the projection systems don't have him getting to that 39 and a half. So do you think Vladi can get the 40 home runs or do you think this is an opportunity to take the under because last year his launch angle tanked again. So there came the ground balls and maybe the, the dimensions in Toronto, if I'm not mistaken, are going to be more advantageous for left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. So do you think there's an opportunity for the under here or do you think Vlad's getting to 40
Speaker 2 00:46:41 40 is a lot? Um,
Speaker 1 00:46:43 Especially with a 4.3 degree launch angle from last season?
Speaker 2 00:46:46 I mean yeah, that's not, that's not great. You, I mean yeah, there's been a lot of talk about the, the dimensions changing in Toronto, but it's mainly rights on her field that's being changed and he's a righty and he doesn't exactly go oppo all that much. He's never hit, he's never hit oppo more than 24.6% of the time in the season according to batted ball metrics on p graft. So he's mainly a pole guy and kind of center field guy. But that's not really gonna ha the, the fact that it's like basically softball dimensions, inright center field isn't really gonna help vladi. So I would take the under on o on the 39 and a half.
Speaker 1 00:47:38 I think the under might be the play too cause I think we're trying to ride a little momentum from the field adjustments. Yep. He's in a good division for ballparks, but we're, wait,
Speaker 2 00:47:47 Let's put it this way. If he hits 39 home runs, are you gonna be sad if you drafted him in fantasy baseball? If he hits 39 home runs,
Speaker 1 00:47:58 Are we assuming that the numbers from last year stay the same too?
Speaker 2 00:48:01 I mean, or
Speaker 1 00:48:02 Are we gonna say a drop in stolen bases?
Speaker 2 00:48:05 I don't think he gets the, well maybe with the bigger pizza boxes for bases they can stay the same
Speaker 1 00:48:09 Bloody run into pizza boxes. Is that
Speaker 2 00:48:11 What you're saying? I mean, if he trades off a little bit of pop for a slightly higher batting average and he still gets, let's say he's, he's his average is more like two 90 and the power is about 38 or 39 homers. So he's basically splitting the middle between 2021 and 2022. Are you gonna be complaining
Speaker 1 00:48:34 Absolutely about that? No,
Speaker 2 00:48:36 No. Right. And he still didn't get to 40. So I that's that's a, that's a big, that's a big ask.
Speaker 1 00:48:42 Yeah, I would, I'd take, I think as of right now, I think I'm gonna take the under there as well. Cause basically what we need to happen would be he would need the luck, not necessarily the luck, but he would need that home run to fly ball rates rival Reddit did at 2021 and he's gotta hit less ground balls. You cannot hit 52 ground ball 52% of the time and be a 40 home run guy. It's gonna be pretty darn harder to do that.
Speaker 2 00:49:05 And here's the thing, if the shift is gonna help him like banding the shift is gonna help him, then maybe like, what am I trying to say? Like Toronto doesn't need him to hit 48 home runs for them to be successful. What they need to be successful is for him to start driving in more runs consistently. And if that's producing line drives into the gaps, okay, or now maybe the shift helps him a little bit with some more ground balls being turned into hits than he gets on base and then they don't care about a home run. You know, it, it's not like he needs a massive swing adjustment to be productive. And and that's what scares me off of him hitting 40, 40 bombs. I I just think that's, that's a very big ask, uh, even for a guy as good as fly detail.
Speaker 1 00:50:11 Lofty, lofty number indeed. So that'll put a bow on this week's episode. So give Matt a follow at the sales man on Twitter. I am at Cole Conway and of course head over to fantasy alarm.com and get your access to the completely free fantasy alarm fantasy baseball draft guide, seasonal leagues, dynasty leagues, DFS content, positional spotlights. It is all there. And then soon enough, you'll also get not an MLB draft guide, but you'll get all of Matt sell's great other content in terms of the racing world as I like to say, cuz I do not know anything about it. So make sure you get Matta follow at the sales man so that you can be informed when it comes to the racing world time for all of the great content there and as we draw closer to pitchers and catchers reporting. So we will see you next week with the next edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast.