Episode Transcript
Speaker 1 00:00:08 And welcome back to the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast. Yep. Twice in one week, too much stuff has happened that we just couldn't wait till Monday or Tuesday to get the next edition out. With opening day right around the corner, fantasy baseball drafts are in full swing. There's unfortunately a lot of ish happening. We gotta talk about it. There's big time fantasy ramifications. I've already put out a tweet in regards to one of them that all of the closer BS is already starting and opening day hasn't even hit yet. So, Matt, we, I, I'm glad have you here at the Sales man on Twitter, but I'll be honest, too much stuff to talk about. I, I really wanna exchange pleasantries, but I don't know, I just don't know if we have time cuz it's the first thing we gotta talk about.
Speaker 1 00:00:53 Reese Hoskins, I want you to first say how you're doing and you cannot say better than Reese because we all know that. I understand that. Uh, weird looking injury. Uh, non-contact. Whenever you hear that hyphenated word, it's never great. But Reese Hoskins non-contact, I believe it was left knee injury today in spring training on the ground, rolling around in pain. I mean, it's tough to make assumptions cuz we've seen certain times where players get wheelchaired back to the bathroom and you're back to the locker room and they just have to go use the bathroom or they get carted back just to the bathroom. This wasn't that case, but what should we doing in, what should we be doing in our fantasy baseball drafts with, with this Hoskins news? Cause at least on the look of it, not good.
Speaker 2 00:01:35 Yeah. Uh, anytime you see teammates, first of all I'll say I'm doing not so bad. I haven't drafted yet. So on dodging bullets right now by not drafting, this is also why by the way, you draft as late as possible. So you have <laugh> you have all of the time in spring training to avoid this. Um, but I will say, yeah, it was a pretty weird looking injury. It looked like he caught his foot on the, you know, the outfield grass just passed the first base, um, base path. And frankly when I was watching it, I was expecting something to happen to the right knee and then he just hopped around and had a problem with his left knee. And then anytime um, your teammates huddle around you, that's usually not a good sign. Right. Um, and then the EMTs came out with the cart and the fills already said he is going for more testing and evaluation. Not good. So I'm pretty sure we can all assume that it's going to be a torn acl. Um, I would be shocked if it's only like a sprain. Uh, I think at this point we're talking months if not the season. So I would draft him according to assuming that he's gonna miss the season until we hear otherwise. Are you with, like, are you with me on that, having watched the, the clip? Cuz it doesn't, it doesn't look like it's just a sprain that he tweaks something.
Speaker 1 00:03:04 No, it's, yeah, I mean I, I think you, you're gonna have, we're gonna have to bump 'em down boards. I, if your league does not have IL spots, you just simply can't draft them. You can't just Yep. Especially while in we're in this waiting period. So like I, I have a league where Hoskins, I have other first base options, 10 team league. I'm not really worried about it per se in a league like that. Or even like deep release, you can wait. Like what's the difference? Why drop 'em today when I can wait till Saturday or Sunday to hear the testing. You know, if there's multiple people on waivers that you can pick up, you're okay. Just hold on, wait. If you haven't drafted yet, bump Hoskins down and I would just, until we get any news, he's gonna be completely off my board. If your league doesn't have any IL spots cuz you're just, you're holding on to a potential false hope that may never come. So I I'm, I'm pretty much in agreeance with you. It, it's unfortunate. And then, yeah,
Speaker 2 00:03:56 I guess my question is how are we approaching him in keeper leagues? Like let's say you don't, you haven't made a keeper decision yet.
Speaker 1 00:04:03 I'd throw 'em back. That's what
Speaker 2 00:04:08 I would say. Yeah. I guess my question becomes if there's other years past this, like cuz you could have multiple years that aren't, and you're not in a dynasty league, right? A dynasty league. I'm keeping him
Speaker 1 00:04:20 For sure. For sure. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:04:22 Like you just put 'em on your bench, eat the year, eat a bench spot to your, keep 'em, if you're in a keeper league in which you can keep 'em for a few more years, it gets a little interesting
Speaker 1 00:04:34 From Yeah, I mean I like Hoskins too, but I mean, when you look at the past couple years, I, I can find 25 homers in a 2 45 average.
Speaker 2 00:04:42 Yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 1 00:04:43 And no knock. That's still very serviceable. So it's not to say like you could, may not be able to, but it's just, I don't think that Juice has worth the squeeze to hold onto him through this year just to get to maybe 30 plus Homers like he did last year.
Speaker 2 00:04:56 That's true. I mean, he was still being drafted ahead of Rizzo and I think Rizzo's arguably the better fantasy option.
Speaker 1 00:05:02 Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. And I mean, and the thing with Hoskins too, maybe he never reaches that, maybe that elite high end, but we've seen, I mean take out the 2020 shortened season. He's got 27 plus homers in each of the past couple of seasons. He's been pretty consistent average wise. I mean, there's safety and security, so I love the consistency that we get with Hoskins otherwise, but it seems to me, if you were in a keeper league and you were to throw him back, I don't really think he would be one that people would be, you know, scurrying for. I think you'd be, I think you could throw him back and get him back before next year.
Speaker 2 00:05:36 That's fair. I mean his ADP since March 1st in N FBC is one 19 right now, which makes him the ninth first basement off the board. Like I could still make the argument even if he was healthy that he's still in the group with Christian Walker, Andrew Vaughn, Nate Lowe, uh, Kron Toles, I mean Rizzo's the 15th guy off the board.
Speaker 1 00:06:00 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:06:01 So yeah, I'm with you. Okay, fair enough. And awesome him back.
Speaker 1 00:06:06 Now let's see, let's see if we can agree on this one in Atlanta, Rizzo Ogles is a closer, I seem to like every single year he's gonna open the year on the, uh, injured list with, uh, some shoulder inflammation to me, based on what I've seen with Atlanta in the past, my thought is AJ Min is the guy to own for the ninth inning. I know Joe Jimenez is there, but to me, I, I think it's mentor. Are you with me on that?
Speaker 2 00:06:32 I'm with you on that. They've also, by the way, I think they've said
Speaker 1 00:06:36 They did say it was him.
Speaker 2 00:06:37 Uh, I'm not sure if it or they've strongly hinted that Minter's gonna get the first crack at closing.
Speaker 1 00:06:43 Okay. So then we're basically right.
Speaker 2 00:06:46 Yeah. Now the question becomes how long do we expect Rice Alaia to be out? Because the wording on it was he's going to start on the il, he won't pitch for seven days and then be reevaluated. So,
Speaker 1 00:07:06 Well, I guess the only thing we know then for sure is seven days.
Speaker 2 00:07:10 Right? But the question is he's not pitching for seven days from now. Seven days from now. This is Thursday the 23rd. It's opening day.
Speaker 1 00:07:19 I would say we need to prepare, if it's seven days from now, he picks up a ball again, he's gonna have to get stamina built up. He doesn't throw for a couple, I would say prepare minimum of the first two weeks of the season minimum.
Speaker 2 00:07:35 Okay. Now do you think there's chances that they put him back in the closer roll immediately, right into high leverage? Or they kind of do, like when you're switching your pet's food you go like mm-hmm <affirmative> 75 25 and then 50 50 and then 25 75. And then, so do you think there's like a crossover period between Minter and Raelle, assuming it's a short term thing for Razel and he doesn't get re-injured?
Speaker 1 00:08:00 It could, depending on how the first say, let's say it is just two weeks for just to make it make it easy in terms of this hypothetical, if it is those two weeks, if let's say the Braze, let's say Minter's very good, right? But let's say the rest of the bullpen implodes, who's to say that AGLs is quote unquote rehab assignment? Isn't the fifth or sixth thinning of games letting him work back into it before he gets back, right? I don't think he'll jump right back into the closing spot. No. Um, unless Minter implodes, then AGLs might come back right away doing the ninth inning. But if they don't, if we see that they're not going to send him for a rehab assignment, Minter's still the closer for a little bit longer. Agles is gonna pitch probably a low leverage appearance or two, get the sixth or seventh and then you'll slowly see him kind of like the whole pet diet thing. We're gonna go 75, 25 to 50 50 eventually til Alacia is healthy and fully the guy again.
Speaker 2 00:08:54 Right. Or they put him in the ninth inning and nons save
Speaker 1 00:08:57 Correct
Speaker 2 00:08:58 Situations to a save mentor and B, get him back to waiting that long into a game before he comes out.
Speaker 1 00:09:06 And just the ninth inning mantra, I mean the ninth inning's, the ninth inning, I mean obviously it's better when you're winning and there's more adrenaline, but at least that'd be a way to get him. Yeah. Like you said, like end of the night get into it. His, his more normal routine I guess you could say. Right? Cause that's, I mean cuz that's what he's used to is the night thinning. So yeah, I'd say at least the minimum of the first two weeks expect to be without AGLs, uh, in drafts. If you haven't drafted yet, I might bump him down a couple spots, um, in the closer. But when healthy, he's one of the, what, maybe six or seven guys that we know for sure is the ninth inning dude no matter what.
Speaker 2 00:09:40 Yeah. I mean, or
Speaker 1 00:09:41 At least we have a hunch.
Speaker 2 00:09:44 I mean, I think if he's healthy, he is there no matter what and mentors the eighth inning guy and maybe gets a handful of saves if there's back to back to back opportunities and then they're not gonna pitch a gladius three days in a row even when he was healthy. Right. So I think a Gladius is a lockdown guy, is a lockdown guy. Probably hater in San Diego, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, Devin Williams in Milwaukee. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, right? Um, <affirmative>,
Speaker 1 00:10:17 Uh, Bednar is gonna be one
Speaker 2 00:10:19 Denar for the first half of the season before he is traded. Yes.
Speaker 1 00:10:23 Heley.
Speaker 2 00:10:24 Yeah. Heley
Speaker 1 00:10:25 Batista one. Healthy
Speaker 2 00:10:28 Who?
Speaker 1 00:10:29 Uh, Batista Baltimore.
Speaker 2 00:10:31 Yeah. One Heley, uh, Benley Holmes in New York.
Speaker 1 00:10:37 Potentially the, uh, Camilla Deval in San Fran.
Speaker 2 00:10:41 I would assume so. What about Diego? Um, what about, what are we doing with Seattle? Because they've got, they've got a few dudes.
Speaker 1 00:10:50 I don't know which one is going to be, I mean, I want it to be Munos cause dude's filthy, but so
Speaker 2 00:10:58 It's gonna be Diego Castillo
Speaker 1 00:11:00 Or it could be him and it's not like Saal did a ton to like lose plot out, serve it up on a silver platter to somebody else.
Speaker 2 00:11:07 Yeah, that's true. So yeah, maybe six guys then.
Speaker 1 00:11:11 Yeah. I mean if you look at it now, if Alaia was about the fifth closer, like
Speaker 2 00:11:17 Probably
Speaker 1 00:11:17 Ace Hell is gonna move above him as long as b he's healthy, he is gonna go above him for now. Kenley maybe, uh, I mean Kenley is a bus candidate for me, so that's kind of a different thing. Deval moves up above him. I would say Glacia drops down closer to the closer 10 than the closer five that he's been.
Speaker 2 00:11:32 Yeah. So, and if we find out otherwise, then he either stays in that range or he continues to slip. If it's gonna be longer
Speaker 1 00:11:41 In St. Louis, Adam Wayne Wright out several weeks, weeks with a groin strain. To me this has more impact in reality than fantasy. Uh, Wayne Wright could throw a complete game shutout, and if his over under prop was three and a half strikeouts, I'd probably take the under unless he's pitching at home. He's good at home in strikeouts, otherwise not fantasy. Not a real big impact for this one. For Wayne Wright. He's kind of a mid low level guy that you kind of look at just cause the, the dirt of strikeouts hurts in fantasy.
Speaker 2 00:12:07 I mean, that's true. He's not really striking out people anymore. You know, he's throwing mostly curve balls at this point, you know, living up to his nickname Uncle Charlie. Um, it does, it does hurt though in terms of guys getting forced up in the St. Louis rotation that weren't necessarily expected to be forced up, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative> like now you have either Montgomery or Michael, this is your ace for the start of the season. Right? I'm not sure I view either of those dudes as ace pitchers. Right? Um, you have Jake Woodford now as your fifth starter who probably shouldn't be in the rotation until maybe Lior can figure it out and come in like, you know, it, it hurts in terms of in fantasy ways. Like if you're expecting Jordan Montgomery to be the number three starter, you're like, well, he matches up better than like, let's say half the leagues number three starters. So he bases them, you have a better than you have a better chance of snagging a win and a good showing and whatnot. Right? Whereas now he is a number two starter, but I'm not sure he's really a number two starter. So it kind of, it kind of stretches things a little bit in fantasy in terms of maybe not as many quality starts from guys, stuff like that.
Speaker 1 00:13:35 The reality. Yeah. The, the impact in reality I think is, is the bigger thing here. And I mean really the Wayne Wright was the constant in, he may not be the best, but he was the constant in this rotation. So now after Colas and Montgomery who are your two kind of rocks, e even though we can debate whether they're s sp one, SB two, you know, their rocks in that rotation, you now need a healthy flaherty and a healthy Steven mats. And at this point, as much as I hate to say it, can we bet on that?
Speaker 2 00:14:08 Nope.
Speaker 1 00:14:09 So
Speaker 2 00:14:09 I mean, Flaherty have been injured like more times in the last three years than he is made stark.
Speaker 1 00:14:14 Yeah. So that's, that's the issue that they're gonna run into. And we've talked about this multiple pods back to Philadelphia forearm, you know what forearm means off my board. It's that simple. Uh, ranger Suarez, some elbow inflammation and forearm tightness. Uh, kind of a <laugh> a deadly duo. It's not really a dynamic duo, I'd say it's kind of a deadly duo there. So for me, I'm pretty much out on Suarez. I wasn't really that in on him to begin with anyway. Just didn't have many shares of him. Never really sought him out at that point in drafts. But this certainly doesn't make things any easier drafting him, uh, in fantasy. So what, what are, what are you kind of doing with Suarez here in, in the Forearm news?
Speaker 2 00:14:55 I wasn't all that high on him to begin with, I guess. I mean his numbers were pretty good last year, but I don't know, like pitching is so deep that I could go basically anywhere for an SP three I feel like. Um, but if you're, if you are looking at him, um, they don't sound like Philadelphia doesn't sound all that, uh, scared of this. But for the fact that he was slow to start in spring because of forearm tightness and now he's likely to start on the i l because of elbow inflammation. There's something there. Like you don't just get tight and inflamed if your body's not trying to fight something off, right? Like there's clearly something there, whether it's a full tear of something, probably not. But these things both tend to linger. So the question is, if he comes back and he is quote unquote healthy, what happens in June when he pops onto the IL again, like, you know, I get, we all want a piece of Philly cuz they're pretty loaded in the pitching department and the hitting department though loss of Hoskins kind of hurts to line up a little bit.
Speaker 2 00:16:05 Um, but this is a guy, I'm not really, I wasn't really looking that much at, um, to begin with. But we do have some breaking, a little bit of breaking injury news. Not huge, um, but a beat writer for the Cubs, uh, for the athletic, um, I'm not gonna try to pronounce it, pronounce his first name, but the last name is Sharma. Um, um, he's reporting that Nico Horner was scratched from the lineup in spring training today with left bicep tightness. They don't think it's serious. He did on field work earlier today. Again, this is Thursday the 23rd of March. Uh, but they don't wanna push push it unnecessarily right now. So just something to watch. Not a huge, again, not a huge thing. Um, but it is something to watch for the Cubs with Nico Horn.
Speaker 1 00:16:58 Yeah. If Horner were to miss Tom, I'd assume they'd somehow rework things a little bit. I would expect Christopher Morrell to come in and hit a, a couple homers, steal a couple bases and strike out 40% of the time
Speaker 2 00:17:07 And then get sent back down.
Speaker 1 00:17:08 Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Um, one wonder what, go, go back. I'm gonna go back to Suarez quick. Uh, when you look at it too, back in 2018, he, I mean he threw about 140 innings then come 2019, he only threw about 86 to 87 4 innings in 2020, jumped to 106 in 2021 and then up to 170, including the postseason last year. I know about five or six years ago with the fantasy alarm draft guide, I remember we always used to do the, uh, pitcher workload concerns article in the draft guide. And there was always that jump, if it was too big of a jump, there was, there should be some concern for that following year. And I mean I, I know we did have a hundred plus ending campaigns years ago, but after just throwing four in 2020 to jump to 1 0 6 and 2021 and now one 70 last year, those are back to back seasons of pretty sizable jumps.
Speaker 2 00:18:01 Yeah. Not to mention that they, they twined it in one of those years too. He kept going between the rotation and the pole pen. So it wasn't even just a pure like starting Yep. Innings load. It was like some higher leverage stuff. Cause he was the cl he was the closer for a little bit too. I think he got train the
Speaker 1 00:18:18 Closer. That was in 2021 where he, he won eight games, saved four games, 39 game or 39 appearances. 12 stars with a 1.36 era r a
Speaker 2 00:18:28 Yeah. So John Sults had out there <laugh>, um, you know, by the way, can we stop with the, so this is four minutes ago from Matt Gel who was, he's a Phil's beat writer for again the athletic. He was the one that reported first that the cart was coming out for Hoskins. He tweeted four minutes ago that Rob Thompson, um, Billy's manager on N B NBC Sports Philadelphia quote. It's concerning. I'm not sure what it is yet. They're checking him out now. He had some knee issues in the past. Maybe it was more fear than pain. They said he was walking around in the clubhouse afterwards. Here's the problem with that. I have torn my acl. Okay. And I walked around with a torn ACL for like a week. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> without a problem. You can walk on a torn ACL without really much pain, to be perfectly honest.
Speaker 2 00:19:17 The problem is when you try to cut, you fall like a sack of potatoes because the ACL L is there to catch you when you move side to side. Same with the pcl. That's what they do. If you stand still and you bend your knee in when your knee catches at your ACL catching, you can move in a straight line without problems. If with a torn acl the problem becomes moving laterally and trying to cut and quick change of direction. So while it's I guess encouraging that he was walking around, but you can walk with like, like you can walk with a torn acl.
Speaker 1 00:20:02 There's no update with that cuz you're, you're exactly correct. Like you can walk on, I mean if you tear your Achilles, you can walk now you're also not doing it Normally
Speaker 2 00:20:12 Kobe Bryant shot a free throw in an NBA game of the torn Achilles.
Speaker 1 00:20:17 Yeah. Whole
Speaker 2 00:20:18 Then he gets in the locker room and collapsed. But
Speaker 1 00:20:20 <laugh>,
Speaker 2 00:20:21 Yeah. Like the people who are replying to this that say, I doubt it's an acl because you wouldn't be able to like remotely try to walk.
Speaker 1 00:20:29 That's simply false.
Speaker 2 00:20:30 It's simply false. Like you haven't torn it. Like I literal, I've literally torn now I'm not an elite athlete, not major league baseball
Speaker 1 00:20:39 Player. Oh, don't discount yourself.
Speaker 2 00:20:40 The fact of the matter remains. You can walk in a straight line on a torn acl. There's not like most, most needy injuries, you can walk in a straight line. The more you tear, the more it's gonna hurt. But that doesn't, that update doesn't really, so please don't read into that as oh it's not that serious.
Speaker 1 00:21:02 Yep. That's good. Good piece of advice there. You can walk on a torn ACL that is correct out in Los Angeles, Jimmy Nelson and Daniel Hudson. I l just more people on it. So let me ask you this, um, Jimmy Nelson's got a beautiful curve ball. I feel like we haven't seen it in a little bit to say the least. Cause he had, I think he had, he went Tommy John last year, right?
Speaker 2 00:21:26 I think so. Or I think he did 2021 something.
Speaker 1 00:21:29 Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That's right. 2021. It's 2023 now. Oh, I'm way off. Yes. I'm sorry. 2021. He
Speaker 2 00:21:35 Did, I think he had something pop up on him when he tried to come back last year. I look the rotation of relievers in the Dodgers bullpen is next to impossible to keep track of because they just keep plugging plugin dudes in. Like, it's congrats to them for having this many arms, but it's, it's kind of ridiculous to keep track of. Um, and to be honest, I'm not sure exactly what the IL deal is for those two guys. It was a little like, it was a little vague in the news report to be All
Speaker 1 00:22:12 Right. So it looks like Hudson's his knee,
Speaker 2 00:22:15 Okay.
Speaker 1 00:22:17 He won't be ready for the start of the season, which we knew. And then all Dave Robert said was elbow. So I guess it's still coming back from a
Speaker 2 00:22:24 Little sore.
Speaker 1 00:22:25 Yeah, yeah. Probably something like that. So let me ask you this. Opening day Dodgers are leading, they're up by three into the ninth. Who do you think gets the ball for the first save opportunity?
Speaker 2 00:22:38 I don't wanna say Veia.
Speaker 1 00:22:41 Not who I wanted you to say, but
Speaker 2 00:22:43 You wanted me to say Gretal?
Speaker 1 00:22:45 No, I want you to say Phillips.
Speaker 2 00:22:46 Oh, okay. I mean,
Speaker 1 00:22:47 But I, I can see Well
Speaker 2 00:22:50 Fair on your resource. They have four dudes with closer next to their name.
Speaker 1 00:22:54 Well, I, they might as well just make all seven because at this point I think any of them could do it.
Speaker 2 00:22:58 I mean Evan Phillips Vereal and Caleb Ferguson and if Hudson was there, he would have <laugh>. He would've next to his name too. Um, oh, SIO was just straight up filthy last year. Like, uh, but to be honest, I don't know the projections by the way, have nobody in the Dodgers pen getting more than 10 saves right now.
Speaker 1 00:23:24 And I mean if we look at spring, I mean Al has six scoreless innings this spring with four strikeouts. Phillips has six scoreless, uh, with a six to one strikeout to walk ratio. Where's Veia? Veia five and a third four hits, three earned runs. Nine, nine to one. Strike out the walk ratio.
Speaker 2 00:23:47 So he is a little bit al more all or nothing <laugh>. But the only thing that works against, so there's, so I don't know how the lefty thing with Betsy is gonna work in his favor or against him, right? Because it's more uncommon to have a lefty as a closer. So that could throw guys off, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. But it also only means there's one other lefty in the pen if you have Bessie as the closer. Whereas if you have either Phillips Orreal, you have Ferguson and Bessie as your lefties right? Now, obviously there are two spots open in that pen. They could be filled, you know, one of 'em could be filled with, um, with a lefty. But I, I don't know Dave Roberts can we trust Dave Roberts?
Speaker 1 00:24:36 No, but I, that's why I'm asking you And before you, before I, that's why I asked you before you had a chance to ask me.
Speaker 2 00:24:43 I mean
Speaker 1 00:24:44 That's pretty smart.
Speaker 2 00:24:48 I don't know. I mean Kenley, Janssen was like they had him, they didn't take him out. But that's Kenley Janssen,
Speaker 1 00:24:53 Right? That's different. Yeah. This is, this is like comparing like apples to like flaming on.
Speaker 2 00:24:58 Yeah, I mean, uh, I don't know. I would say it's either Ves or Al.
Speaker 1 00:25:04 Yeah, I'll go bestie or Phillips. Okay. Cause why not? We can't agree on everything. Um, two quick injury updates, um, as well. So let's just talk about this. Carlos Rodan with the forearm through a good bullpen onto a second pen. Um, I'm still skeptical. I'm still a bit pessimistic. Yeah, I mean this is step in the right direction, but it's, you know, it's just, it, it's good. It it, the fact that it's not okay, this is gonna be a double negative but hear me or kind of a double negative. You hear me out. But the fact that it's not bad news is good news in and of itself.
Speaker 2 00:25:37 Yes. The fact,
Speaker 1 00:25:38 But I'm not jumping for joy.
Speaker 2 00:25:39 Yeah. <laugh>, his arm's still attached. That's the good news for it. <laugh>.
Speaker 1 00:25:44 Yeah, it and it, it's one of those things where it's like I'm not, oh he threw a bullpen, fif you know, 60% stuff looked good. Probably didn't even throw a spinner. Probably a couple fast balls did good. I'm all assuming there, but yeah, let's just, I'm just gonna move him back up my board. I am not doing that yet. Call me a pessimist or whatever you want to call it. Um, no good. No, no bad news. Here is good news. I'm not making any changes to my current draft board because of this update.
Speaker 2 00:26:11 Correct.
Speaker 1 00:26:12 I'm glad we agree there. What about in Atlanta with Mike Soroka? Talk about a guy we haven't seen in
Speaker 2 00:26:19 Feels like five years.
Speaker 1 00:26:21 It feels like five years. I don't know if it's actually been quite that long. Let's see.
Speaker 2 00:26:25 No, but I mean he tours Achilles what twice?
Speaker 1 00:26:28 Something like that.
Speaker 2 00:26:30 I mean he tore it once and then I think he tore it again trying to rehab it. And then he had some el elbow thing last year too. If I'm
Speaker 1 00:26:38 Not, we haven't seen him since August 3rd, 2020.
Speaker 2 00:26:42 So not quite five years, but
Speaker 1 00:26:44 Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:26:45 Almost in this day and age, right?
Speaker 1 00:26:48 <laugh>. Right. So yeah, I mean he made a, he came back spring and as expected mixed results, right. He's not gonna come out and dominate. He's gotta just kind of, at this point for him, he could go out there, throw three innings, let up seven home runs. But if he comes outta the game healthy Atlanta's calling it a win.
Speaker 2 00:27:04 That's basically what, so they, I was looking at this, I have a list of of beat writers from MLB on Twitter and I was looking at it and the brave players were all just like to see him on the mound again was a win. Yep. Like was it the best outing? No, when his slider was in the zone it was filthy and elite like you expect it to be. But just to see him out there and then come outta the game healthy was a win for him right now. So does it change my draft stock? No. Like I'm taking him as late as possible just as a flyer to see what happens. Um, they don't need him in the rotation right now, so there's no impetus for them to like rush him along. Um,
Speaker 1 00:27:46 And and he's a great late round flyer cause I mean he's someone you're gonna have to stack strikeouts around him cuz he is not necessarily the biggest strikeout arm but the spool year, we saw him back in 2019 over basically Yeah 175 innings of one 11 whip. The 26 80 ra like 142 strikeouts in 175 innings. It's, I mean it's not great but it's not horrible. You can get by, if you have an elite strikeout reliever, you've now balanced him and soroka to a strikeout inning arm.
Speaker 2 00:28:13 Right. Or if you have two high strikeout starters whose ratios aren't the best, you pair him with Ciro when he is healthy, it all work. But again, I'm taking him as late as possible just as a flyer. Cause if he comes back healthy and the Braves can get creative in the back of their rotation, I'm all about soroka.
Speaker 1 00:28:36 Yeah. And it, it's again, if he comes out or something happens and he manages to get hurt again or he's just not that great, it's a late round pick. You can drop 'em, you know. No, no, no harm, no foul type thing. So I I I'm in agreement with you there. Couple interesting things I want to get your opinion on here Matt. More so just kind of yes or no type thing. Uh, Anthony Voia name that's been going around all spring is you gonna break camp Aaron Judge has basically said the best guys need to be there more or less is what he said.
Speaker 2 00:29:07 Yeah,
Speaker 1 00:29:08 He, I mean I agree with that in its simple.
Speaker 2 00:29:11 Lemme preface this. Will he based on Mary? Yes. Do I think he should? No, I want the Yankees to extend this guy as long as possible to be perfectly honest. <laugh> So the Yankees fan, I don't want anything cl ticking off his service time. Um Right. Alright. Has he outplayed all of the other options? Maybe? I don't know. Piazza's been pretty, been pretty good. And with the club, I actually want Oswald to Piazza at short rather than Volpe and I would put Volpe at second base.
Speaker 1 00:29:44 Mm-hmm Because So you want them to trade labor?
Speaker 2 00:29:49 I mean I'm indifferent about labor to be honest. Like he is solid but do it like, I don't know, they have a lot of middle infielders right now cause I don't know what they're doing with Cabrera. <laugh>. They also have a guy named Trey Sweeney who is like their third best prospect also plays shortstop still then and the minors. Um, so will he make it? Yeah, I think he will. I think the time is here for fol to, to make the opening day roster.
Speaker 1 00:30:18 Will and I he
Speaker 2 00:30:20 Full time starter. I don't know
Speaker 1 00:30:22 What and yeah, and I would ask where would you draft him in fantasy? But it seems like we already got a pretty good gauge or you know, it seems, looks like since March 1st. Oh, I gotta filter the pictures son of a gun. Hold on a second. So it looks like Volpe, I mean he's been a name of kind of been moving up a little bit right now. Average pick since March 1st of pick 2 78. If he's announced that he breaks camp with the team, you gotta imagine that that moves up what, three four rounds minimum closer to pick 200 now.
Speaker 2 00:30:51 Um,
Speaker 1 00:30:52 If all it says is he's camp with the team, if, I mean it's gonna hell's gonna break loose. If they say he's the starting everyday guy, he's gonna why up?
Speaker 2 00:31:01 I find it interesting that, so he's coming off since March 1st is the 27th shortstop off the board and Oswald Piazzo is the 28th shortstop off the board. So clearly whoever's name the opening day starter is short is gonna go up the board. If it's Volpe then I think he has to Vol Mateo, he's got a Volt, the injured Alberto Maney, I think he volts uh, Kim, I would take him over Bryson Scott, I'd probably take him over CJ Abrams. I gonna take him over Luis UUs or is he killed Hova?
Speaker 1 00:31:40 No, I think that's, I think that's where, I think that's where the train stops for me.
Speaker 2 00:31:44 I would agree. As bad as, as Javier Baez is in the batting average category, I think I still take him over and I can't discount Tovar playing in Coors and he's got just as good of a track record. The minors was FPE does.
Speaker 1 00:32:01 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:32:04 Yeah, I probably jump 'em about So what is that? He's 27th right now. I
Speaker 1 00:32:09 Would take my eight steps to like short stock 2021 ish.
Speaker 2 00:32:11 Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1 00:32:13 And I think that's fair. I I don't, I mean now if, if we're looking at him there, there's definitely gonna be leagues that were probably not going to get him because there's either gonna be a Yankee fan or a prospect fan or someone and they'll just push him up above the likes of BAAs. Your is and all of them.
Speaker 2 00:32:29 I would, I would agree, but I don't like you can't just go based off, oh this guy smoked AA pitching so he is gonna be phenomenal. Like
Speaker 1 00:32:36 Correct.
Speaker 2 00:32:37 Is it likely that Volpe will succeed And he, has he done well in Spring short, but how many dudes have lit lit the world on fire in spring and AA and then stuck in the majors Like Jared Collinick did it two years in a row and is barely hanging onto a roster spot in Seattle. Yep. Right. So I, I mean I'm rooting for Mobie to succeed clearly, but I also don't wanna like tie my fantasy baseball future to un yet unproven rookie who's probably going to be in a timeshare.
Speaker 1 00:33:11 What about Al in la? We already know that James Altman has made the, the opening day roster here in spring hitting 2 68, 5 12 slug, 8 66 O p s does have 15 strikeouts though, and 41 at bats. And of course Dave Roberts is his manager. So what can we expect playing time-wise without men, at least at the beginning of the 2023 campaign?
Speaker 2 00:33:35 I mean he's, he's a late round flyer for me in the outfield outfields. Incredibly deep. I'm not even sure you'd necessarily have to look at 'em in 12. Like I wouldn't look at 'em in 10 or 12 team leagues for sure
Speaker 1 00:33:46 Since March 1st. His average ADP is 5 61 for the
Speaker 2 00:33:50 Record. Yeah. If you're in 14 or 15 or 16 team leagues or whatever, late round outfield flyer. At best. At best. Cause you gotta keep in mind he's probably the fifth outfielder on that roster. Mm-hmm.
Speaker 1 00:34:06 <affirmative>,
Speaker 2 00:34:06 Right? So he's going to need a couple of guys to stop hitting baseballs like Jason Hayward, um, to get in there. But Trace Thompson is there for his defense, right? So like, I don't think you're getting in over him. David Peralta, they just signed and they believe that guy can still hit a little bit, right? You could theoretically sprinkle in JD Martinez in the outfield. I don't think that's gonna happen, but you could theoretically do it. Moki isn't going anywhere, right?
Speaker 1 00:34:36 Well,
Speaker 2 00:34:37 Well maybe second base. Just,
Speaker 1 00:34:39 Just just 10, just 10 times or 15 or 20 whatever, whatever my league's rule is to get second base eligibility. Just play him there that many times. That's all I'm asking.
Speaker 2 00:34:49 Right. But here's the thing, you also have Chris Taylor and you still have Jason Hayward. So like,
Speaker 1 00:34:54 Okay, well we can get rid of Jason Hayward.
Speaker 2 00:34:56 I mean Jason Hayward's not great, but Jason
Speaker 1 00:34:59 Hayward's not scaring me from anything.
Speaker 2 00:35:01 I mean, yeah, I would take, I would take James Outman as a like last round flyer in very deeply.
Speaker 1 00:35:08 Absolutely. And if, and if he doesn't break outta that fifth outfielder again, you drop him no harm, no foul.
Speaker 2 00:35:13 You didn't, didn't waste anything, you didn't waste any draft capital on
Speaker 1 00:35:16 Him last time I checked. You don't lose drafts based on your 28th round pick.
Speaker 2 00:35:22 No.
Speaker 1 00:35:23 At least from what I've
Speaker 2 00:35:24 Seen, clarify, if you have you screwed up every other part of your
Speaker 1 00:35:27 <laugh>. If, if, if your 28th round pick was the key to unlocking the, the fantasy goodness with your team, rounds one through 27 are a problem. And you should be checking out our free fantasy alarm fantasy baseball draft guide for assistance and our discord.
Speaker 2 00:35:40 Yes.
Speaker 1 00:35:42 How about in Chicago? Um, Hayden was, I believe it's Wenski. Yes. Yeah, okay. Some of these pronunciation I just get, I I I come onto these, I read before him and then I get here just totally forget everything that I worked on before it. So, um, he's looked good this spring through three innings, um, 17 strikeouts, only four walks. Uh, just a, an even three era r a from 12 innings. He was the one that the Cubs got back for the reliever that went to Yankees, right. Who's now hurt.
Speaker 2 00:36:11 Yes. The uh, the r like the 26 year old rookie. Who was
Speaker 1 00:36:15 It like, like fro It's F Ross,
Speaker 2 00:36:17 Right? Yeah, F Ross. Yeah.
Speaker 1 00:36:18 Yeah. Okay. So I mean he's got tons of talent. He can be good for this rotation. So ultimately, let me ask you this. When I look at roster resource, he's slotted in as the team's fifth starter. Uh, he's gonna be there. I like what he can do in a couple of departments, but we haven't really seen, I don't wanna say a ton, but I mean, I mean No, well we haven't. We just, we haven't, we've seen like 33 and he made six appearances last year. Um, and then a couple, uh, AAA starts with the teams and stuff. So what do you expect from Wenski this year? Can he, is he fantasy viable I guess is the question at the end of the day?
Speaker 2 00:36:57 Yeah, I think he's worth an upside pick. Like we're talking late again, like maybe the last pitcher on your roster, right? Um, or your last starting option or bench, whatever. Um, I think there's, there's stuff there. Look with the Yankees last year, aaa, before he was traded, he made 19 thirds in aaa, which is the international league by the way, which is we can trust more what we see from pitchers in that league compared to the Pacific Coast League cuz it's just a be like international league is way more fair parks between hitters and pitchers. So over 89 and two thirds innings, uh, it AAA for New York, he put up a 3 51 era r a 4 0 3 fip, which isn't atrocious, right? Eight 30 or 8.33 K per nine, 2.81 walk per nine. So again, both of those are reason, well not a huge strikeout guy, but he, you'd like to see that difference, right? He's not striking out a ton, like more than a guy printing, but he is also not walking a bunch of dudes. Um, so I think that's, I think that's reasonable. One 15 whip perfectly fine. So I think he winds up being maybe the, I mean I think he jumps through Smiley in that rotation.
Speaker 1 00:38:17 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:38:18 To, to be honest. Does he get up to the top three? I don't think so, but I think he can be. I think he's, look, if you draft him as like an s P eight and he returns s p six value, then you're, you're happy, right?
Speaker 1 00:38:36 Yeah. And I mean last year we, I mean again, it's a very small sample size, but I mean he posted three pitches with a whiff rate of at least 30%. Yeah. I mean you gotta think there's some strikeout upside, and don't get me wrong, is he gonna be elite of the elite? No, but he's a guy that seems like can reliably strike out over a batter printing.
Speaker 2 00:38:54 Yeah, I mean I don't like his projections right now are just a touch below about her printing. But like nobody on the Cubs pitching staff is gonna strike out a guy printing right now.
Speaker 1 00:39:07 Yep. I think, I think you were right.
Speaker 2 00:39:10 If if, if I'm ranking the guys that I have most interest in, in the Cubs pitching staff, it's probably Justin Steel and then Wiz Nki.
Speaker 1 00:39:18 Oh, steel is a stud. I put him in the sleepers article.
Speaker 2 00:39:22 I don't trust Ty to stay healthy at this point. Marcus Drummond is what he is. So let's go for upside.
Speaker 1 00:39:31 Yep, why not? And if he stinks, you drop him right? End of the day. Like Yeah, so I'm, I'm, I'm right there with you. So lastly, the w the wbc, the World Baseball Classic has wrapped up. Um, some of these guys obviously left camp to come and you know, certain guys, you know, you look at it with Goldschmid still got 25 at bats, Mookie got 32. What about someone like Will Smith who only got 10 at bats, made, played in three games there? Obviously Rio Muto was the, the, the main guy behind the dish there. But I mean, will Smith hit 200? He did have a 9 33 O p s across those 10 at bats, but what, is there any like fantasy ramifications of him basically if he was, if he were to stay in camp, he would've had more at bats than what he did in W bbc or is it like, well less at bats in the wbc, but given that they're more game-like than spring training, they actually maybe are a little bit more to equaling out than we may expect. Just looking at the numbers.
Speaker 2 00:40:28 So it's interesting to me a little bit because in the WBC there wasn't the pitch clock. Mm. Right? Like somebody pointed, I think it was CJ McKowski that pointed out that basically none of the pitches between Otani to Trout would've counted, they all would've been called balls or strikes by the ump for time delays on both sides. Right. So they didn't have that. So you've been going through this with camp and training with this and like, like a lot of teams got their, their guys going like even in bating practice they were getting them going with the pitch clocks before spring training games even happened. So in one way you don't necessarily lose some of the muscle memory you've been working on to get ready to, to hit quickly. Right. But you also haven't seen pitches, which also helps you get ready to hit <laugh>. Right? Right. Um, so Will Smith is back in the Dodger's lineup today again, it's Thursday. Um, he was hitting third for what that's worth. Yep. Um, so I I think he'll be, I think he'll be all right. I think catchers have a little bit of an advantage with this cuz you're seeing pitches at it bats and then you're also catching pitches, right? Like you're, you're seeing it from two ways. So I think he'll be, I think he'll be alright.
Speaker 1 00:41:56 What about someone like you Darvish, um, when we saw with him a couple innings in spring training, went to the w BBC through a little bit, um, is he, is he like when he makes his first start of the year, is he gonna be at a point where he would be Sands w bbc?
Speaker 2 00:42:14 I think it'll be a couple starts behind in terms of stretching out for innings. Like his latest, like he just got back, right? He's only gonna go four innings in his spring training start in the next day or two. But normally the starters would be going like six at this point, right? Because it's basically their last starts at this point in spring training before heading back up for the start of the season or doing one of those exhibition games in, um, in their home park. Like the Nats and Yankees are playing in exhibition in Nats Park. That's the last game of spring training so that they can get back into the normal confines. So I think he's gonna be a starter two behind where you would expect innings to be for him.
Speaker 1 00:43:02 Um, I think, I think that's a fair, that's a fair
Speaker 2 00:43:05 Which fantasy I'm not sure much, man. Like the only concern is if he only goes four inning, he is not qualifying for a win, right? Yeah. You need him to go five, but I don't expect like he's not gonna go seven or eight first time out.
Speaker 1 00:43:20 Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think that's fair. And honestly, if he's healthy, you can live. If he goes out there four innings, one hit, one earned run, no walks and six strikeouts, he'll take it and then he just starts part laying it to more innings from there. So yeah, I think that's it. There was a ton that happened. Like I said, we got, we had to get something out. We gotta talk about it here. So, um, next week we'll do our normal early week thing, kind of see how it goes as we draw closer to opening day. Um, but just a couple things to wrap it up. Give Matt a follow on Twitter at the sales man. I'm on Twitter at Colby r Conway. Head over to fantasy alarm.com. Get your copy of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide and all the great MLB content that is, or I should say that was put out, is put out and will be put out as we continue to inch closer to opening day and through opening day throughout the whole 2023 Major League baseball season. So we'll be back next week with the next edition of the Fantasy Alarm. You're gonna see Baseball podcast.
