Speaker 1 00:00:07 And welcome in for the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball podcast. I guess I can say spring training is in full swing. Teams are, you know, they're in camp. We're getting the best shape of their life reports. Everybody's coming back, dropping weight ready for the 2023 season. So we are in peak spring training time and of course the Twitter sphere is buzzing because all we can go off is some of these best shape of their lives right now until games start. So I'm Colby Conway at Colby r Conway on Twitter. And with me as always, the sales man on Twitter, Matt, sell. So Matt, your even your team is not, uh, able to escape some of the best shape of their life reports. You know, we saw CJ Abrams put on a couple pounds, which I'm excited for personally for him for the 2023 season. But before we dive into things, we gotta hit the pleasantries. How the hell are you?
Speaker 2 00:00:57 Uh, I am not in the best shape of my life right now. Uh, I'm a little under the weather, so bear with me folks. If you hear some, uh, inadvertent coughing going on, I'm currently inhaling cough drops at a prodigious rate. Um, but other than that, I'm good. Look, we've got baseball, we've got spring training happening, we've got actual live action on a baseball field happening and we're in the NASCAR season, so, uh, you know, tough to get any better than that in terms of my two favorite sports. Um, so yeah, you know, I saw some reports about Victor Robles toning himself up a little bit, uh, too We'll see if that helps him hit a baseball though, cuz that's been his, that that's been as problem so far. But, um, I think we might start with some guys who are not in the best shape of their lives right now though.
Speaker 1 00:01:50 Yeah, we're gonna start there. We're gonna go to New York cuz of course we gotta talk about this, but the Frankie Mota thing is just gonna keep looking worse and worse like this what happened, really, it's, it's not necessarily the Mota deal itself, it's more so what happened at the deadline and it's just, this is like the
Speaker 2 00:02:05 Material mark deal.
Speaker 1 00:02:06 Yes, that one hurts. Still hurts. But now Mota coming into 2023, he's done, I think I saw it's 12 weeks and they're hoping for an August return and August can
Speaker 2 00:02:18 Start a throwing program in 12 weeks.
Speaker 1 00:02:21 So again, but we're looking at August, we're talking from scratch. Correct. So we're talking what, a month and a half.
Speaker 2 00:02:27 I mean he is gotta, he's gotta do the whole that's starting a throwing program. So as you know, as a former catcher that starts with, you know, throwing from flat ground for, you know, whatever it is, 30 feet and then 60 feet and then 90 feet and then they get you on the mound doing just fastballs at light velocity. Right? So like, and then he is gonna go to a game and then he is gonna have to pitch a few rehab starts at least before he can. So yeah, it's not looking good if we're going 12 weeks from the middle of February, right? That's basically three months from the middle of February we're talking. He can't start a throwing program until what may
Speaker 1 00:03:11 About that
Speaker 2 00:03:12 Mid-May if everything goes uh, according to plan and then he's got, yeah, I mean at the very best a month and a half puts him back basically at the all-star break. And I don't think it's just a month and a half. I think we're talking a couple of months. So yeah, August
Speaker 1 00:03:32 And when, and when you look at it with mota too, it's not like this is uh, hey the shoulder issue popped up and now we got this delay this shoulder. And if even if you want to broaden it to just arm issues in general have been a pretty reoccurring theme for this guy. So when you look at New York, it's tough cause they're in New York. So are they going to feel like they have to rush him back to get 'em on the mound? Maybe the media kind of plays into that and kind of pushes the narrative. They gotta get 'em back out there. But at the same point they can't cuz if we're already looking at August, what's two more weeks to make sure he is fully healthy to come back. But again, we don't know what the state of the Yankees is gonna be come August. Like they might be in a spot where it's like, hey, even if Montoss can only throw 45 pitches, he's better than whatever we're gonna trot out there right now.
Speaker 2 00:04:18 Yeah, I mean look, starting pitching has been a question mark for the Yankees for five years now. Like I'm not even exaggerating, it just feels like it's been a problem for them for at least five years. And now you're looking at their projected starting rotation and it's Garrett Cole and short, Carlos Rodan certainly helps and Louise Severno says he's back and he's what, a little thinner than he was, uh, last year and he feels like he's great. Okay, cool. But like there's question marks about Nestor Cortez Domingo Herman wasn't exactly the healthiest dude last year, right? So that's a bunch of question marks. Like, and so look, do I expect there to really only be perhaps one challenge in the al East? Yeah, probably Toronto is is the best challenger, but you can't really sleep on the raise cuz they always show up with something.
Speaker 2 00:05:24 So who knows? But it's another year where the Yankees are probably gonna have to do something for the rotation by the trade deadline. And if they had Jordan Montgomery, then Nester Cortez is the fifth starter. Or you can split the fifth starter role between Cortez and Herman. It just like I get, they wanted the defense for Harrison Bader and the home, you know, the hometown kid or near hometown kid is a good story. But I would at this point, I would much rather have Jordan Montgomery and deal with, you know, Aaron Hicks in Centerfield and stick oswaldo cabrero, wherever the heck you want to. And you know, just deal with it.
Speaker 1 00:06:16 And that's, that's the interesting thing too. Cause when you look at New York, like if in a vacuum you put Motos, you put Montgomery again in a vacuum, health is out the window. Elite or high end skills are going to probably favor Motos when they're both on the top of their game. Motos might be a bit more, you know, flashy and fun to watch on the mound, but there is safety and security and right now what Montgomery would provide the stability, the consistency, the reliability, that might be the biggest one I probably should have let off with that one. Not having that can't just simply can't be understated. If you look at the past of these other guys, I mean even Rodan prior to the past year or two, he had some arm issues and some injury his or history that popped up. So I'm gonna give Rodan a pass cause he's been better the past two years. But really can you definitively state after Cole and Rodan that you are, that you would be willing to put money that the other guys maybe outside of Nester can get through a season healthy here in 2023. Like there's legitimate questions about Herman and Severino.
Speaker 2 00:07:21 I completely agree and Nester keep in mind that there's still talk about that they're gonna limit his innings a little bit. So, and also keep in mind that their bullpen took a, took a hit, right? Luis Gills still out with Tommy John Scott Efros is gonna miss basically the whole season with Tommy John. Um, so the bullpen that has been a staple of theirs for the last four or five years is also thin. So it's just this montage deal. Just look, when they made the montage deal and you added montages and they still had Montgomery, I was fine with that cuz that's depth and then they traded Montgomery. I you're supposed to trade from a position of strength, not one of weakness or that you just made a trade to shore up. Yep. Or thought you shored up like
Speaker 1 00:08:11 Absolutely. Absolutely. And you know, we're the, the rotation in New York will always be micromanaged. It's always going to be highly criticized cuz like you said, it's been an issue for the past half decade essentially. So it's going to continue to be highly scrutinized and coming outta New York, we also got Anthony Volpe is gonna work in at second and third here in spring training, you know, glad's already at second. So, you know, I don't see how much he'll get involved there at second base, but to me, could this be writing on the wall for Josh Donaldson if he doesn't come out and have a good sprain, they're just gonna say, Hey, after your really your worst year since maybe 2012, it's, I mean it's the lowest o p s he's ever posted in a year for Josh Donaldson in his career. So could this be like a little light under the, you know, like lighting a fire under the, you know what, for Donaldson it's like, hey, we got a dude here and if you don't perform, you know, you're not guaranteed anything here in New York. Is there any concern with Donaldson's role, do you think, at least to begin the year with the news about Volpe kind of moving around the infield?
Speaker 2 00:09:16 I mean, so my first thought is that it's just a way to get him more versatility, right? Because he came up as a shortstop, he's a damn good shortstop, but the Yankees have like, their top four prospects or or four of their top five prospects are basically all shortstops between Volpe and Ald. Piazza was a, uh, you know, is a shortstop and Oswaldo Cabrero was a shortstop and they're moving him around and then they've still got, you know, another guy down in the system that's still coming up. Um, that probably is gonna get become a trade. You know, Trey Sweeney I believe, um, is gonna be a trade piece. Um, so I think it's a way to get him some more spots. But yeah, I think the third base was a dig at Donaldson cuz they talked earlier in the off season about hey, we would take a deal for Donaldson and Aaron Hicks and everybody made fun of him cuz it's like, well you're gonna have to take somebody's literal pump that's on fire and floating down a river for Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson cuz neither one of those guys is worth basically anything on a baseball field at this point.
Speaker 2 00:10:33 Um, so maybe I would look, I would be perfectly fine with that. I would be perfectly fine with that. Cause Josh Donaldson is terrible, is a terrible defensive third basement at this point. Um, and in the batters box it's not like he's doing anything for you. I mean, somebody made an entire two minute and 22nd clip that fit on Twitter of him literally just swinging and missing or watching pitches go right down the middle of the plate and you're supposed to be a power hitter and you can't hit balls like easy fast balls down the middle of the plate. That that's not great.
Speaker 1 00:11:13 And I guess maybe the other way to look at it too is not necessarily asking this to you, but do you believe in a bounceback for Donaldson? If you think yes, then you're probably not too worried per se about this Volpe News. But if you're seeing that Donaldson's not getting any younger, right? I mean he's thirty six, a hundred thirty plus games each the past two years. So 37, yeah, so it'll be 37 this year. Like if you don't think that a back is coming, you are going to want to believe in Voi and that this third base experiment is more so of like a, we want you to be prepared. Cuz if Donaldson comes out in April with a 200 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate, you know, we might, we might be talking about some stuff
Speaker 2 00:11:56 Here. I would be concerned if I was Josh Donaldson or if I had betting money on a, on a bounceback, which I don't, I think he's done. But I think Volpe could very easily take over that, that third base
Speaker 1 00:12:10 Role and it might not even take much, right? Like if Donaldson just does what he did last year, New York cannot afford to keep him at third base.
Speaker 2 00:12:17 I mean because Voi, they they would much, I think at this point they would much rather give VPI a shot than, uh, I K F or uh, lame hu at starting, right? The only one I would be intrigued by to see if he could stop Volpe would be Cabrera. But I really think that they, that they're higher on bringing up their top prospect and you know, letting the next core of guys start to, because we have an interesting mix here on the Yankees roster, right? We've got Oswald Peraza, who's a young guy, we've got Volpe is likely to break camp with him. Clay Torres who's been around for years is still only 26, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative>, um, Harrison Bader hometown kid basically. Even though I would still rather have Jordan Montgomery, whatever, Bader's on the roster, he is 28. And then we've got, you know, as well, Cabrera on the bench, he's 24. So we've got some younger guys coming up, they're starting to bring up their next core. So they're not tied to Donaldson aside from thee amount of money they have to pay him. Yeah. I don't think it's gonna take very much for him to get replaced by either Cabrera or Volpe.
Speaker 1 00:13:33 Yep. And a slow spring or and or a slow start to the season could wreak havoc on Donaldson's fantasy Ations.
Speaker 2 00:13:41 Well hell we could sleep wrong in camp and yank it back and be outta jail.
Speaker 1 00:13:44 Well that too, that is also a possibility.
Speaker 2 00:13:48 But that happens to people of that age. I would know I had that happen two weeks ago.
Speaker 1 00:13:53 But you're still here doing the podcast. You showed up.
Speaker 2 00:13:56 Yeah. Cuz I just gotta sit and
Speaker 1 00:13:58 Chat. People don't need to know that baseball people could be thinking you're standing right now doing, walking on one of those walking treadmills while doing this. They don't know.
Speaker 2 00:14:05 I mean, I would be breathing a whole lot heavier
Speaker 1 00:14:08 <laugh> Well for let the record show that you aren't on a walking treadmill. But they don't need to know that. They let people think what they want and envision it. But in Chicago this is more just a fun little narrative. Talk about Eloy Jimenez down about 20 plus pounds. He said cuz he wants to stay in the outfield. Um, my thought is from a fantasy baseball perspective, I would like him to get outta the outfield because I would like a full season of Eloy. I am sick of drafting fifth or sixth round price on the Eloy banking. Actually I can't even bank on it. Hoping for 30 plus Homers and a hundred plus rbis just to be disappointed to only get about 11 home runs across 60 some odd games. So are you in the same camp as me? I feel like most people have to be in that camp.
Speaker 2 00:14:48 Yeah. I mean I would much prefer him be the DH in Chicago. Like I understand that he wants to feel more of a part of the everyday action and the on field action and stay in the outfield. But you signed Ben n Tendee to play left field. He's a pretty good defensive left fielder, right? Aside from the lack of pop and struggle that he had in New York. Whatever. A lot of people struggle in New York. He's a very good defensive left fielder. So that's locked up. You signed Benin Tendee to a five-year deal. Luis Robert is gonna stay in the outfield. He's, as long as he's healthy, he's a very good center fielder and right field. I mean maybe you put Eloy there, but like you got l Lori Garcia who could play there. You got Gavin Sheetz who could play there. You got Victor Reyes who could play somewhere in the outfield. So I think Eloy Jimenez is the odd man out. I think he's gonna be the DH
Speaker 1 00:15:54 And it's, it's, it's, it's really weird for us to say like, I'm almost hoping that he's the odd man out because it's best for fantasy value. It's so weird,
Speaker 2 00:16:01 Right? There's a lot less chance of him getting injured, being DH than him playing in the outfield and getting caught on the outfield wall or yanking a hammy or hurting a knee when he dies for a ball or throwing out a shoulder while trying to get an outfield cyst. Like,
Speaker 1 00:16:19 You know, it's just, we need, we really need the volume from Jimenez is what it comes down to. Like 2020 played in 55 games. It's actually pretty darn good. And we got 14 homers 2 96 average. But other than that, he hasn't played more than 85 games since 2019. Although his 2020 pace would've been above that. But for his career, 162 game average, we're talking to 36 bombs, a 8 31 O P s and 108 rbis. Like just give us one healthy season of Eloy. Now what, let me tell you this though, once we do get that healthy season of Eloy and he dominates that next year, it's almost a a hundred percent guarantee I will not be drafting him in fantasy.
Speaker 2 00:16:57 Oh yeah. Cause the price is gonna be insane
Speaker 1 00:16:59 <laugh>, because you're gonna be, you're gonna be paying for not only top ceiling production, but also banking on another season of health. Which at this point I don't think we can do.
Speaker 2 00:17:07 Nope. It's hard to, it's like banking on a full season at a Byron Buxton. Not gonna happen.
Speaker 1 00:17:13 It's just, it's, it's a fun story to talk about. It's a fun hope to have and like I'm still okay drafting Eloy. It's just, it's
Speaker 2 00:17:21 Now that being said, losing the 20 pounds if he does stay in the airfield should help with some, with some, you know, like muscular injuries that he's cropped up because it's less weight to carry on the frame, which means when he is running, it's less force is generated, which means things are less likely to go wrong in your body if you weigh less. Right. That's
Speaker 1 00:17:44 Why it's in theory.
Speaker 2 00:17:45 In theory. However, some guys are also not meant to play outfield 162 games in an MLB season and he might be one of 'em. Now could we possibly see him shift in and out from outfield to dh? Probably. But for fantasy value you want him playing as much DH as
Speaker 1 00:18:05 Possible. Yep. Absolutely. Another one we'll talk about, uh, Jason Hayward. So some, apparently they came out saying like he's a favorite for our roster spot. He has reworked his swing. There was a clip I saw on Twitter of him, uh, striking a ball pretty good and it seemed like it went pretty far to right field a swing, albeit Yeah, reworked. Albeit, yeah, albeit reworked. I don't love the look of it personally, but again, to each their own, like, you know, Craig council had a weird batting stance and he seemed to do just fine. There's plenty of weird, uh, batting stances around the league, but Jason Hayward seems, I know he's like pretty cheap in draft, so it's not really like a trap. I just don't know if I can ride the, the Hayward train in 2023 cuz in playing time too, there's gonna be questions about that. Like how often can he play?
Speaker 2 00:18:55 Yeah. So here's my question. What is it about Jason Hayward Swain that the Dodgers could fix that they couldn't fix about Cody Bellinger?
Speaker 1 00:19:02 Yeah, I mean
Speaker 2 00:19:03 They're, they're both lefties. They swapped spots this year cuz belly signed with the Cubs, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative>. So they're both left-handed hitters. They're both ostensibly power hitting or reasonably power hitting, uh, outfielders who play very good defensive outfield and swing left-handed. Yet the Dodgers haven't been able to fix Bellinger swing in three years. Now they're gonna take a shot. I'm fixing Jason Hayward's swing who the Cubs couldn't fix for seven years.
Speaker 1 00:19:35 It, it seems like a reclamation project that we're gonna buy into the story in the spring. And then next thing you know, we're gonna come April and it's gonna be like oh, so different swing. Same dude.
Speaker 2 00:19:44 Yeah, I mean the swing I saw it, it's different. He makes contact. But a how fast is Tony Conlin throwing the first week back at camp? Um, did he gro him a fastball so that Jason Hayward could get some discussion points? Like I just, I just don't know. And also if you're a major leaguer who's going to spring training, you should be able to end a fastball.
Speaker 1 00:20:07 Yeah. And I mean it's a minor league, I believe you got a minor league contract with the Dodger, so nothing is guaranteed, but Right. It seems like he has a leg up in the competition for the final outfield roster spot. Again, not starting spot roster spot. He is depth, I understand he's
Speaker 2 00:20:22 Super
Speaker 1 00:20:23 Cheap but not worth it.
Speaker 2 00:20:25 Remember how much AJ Pollock played last year? Not, not all that much. Like Pollock's been on, was on that team for like three years and played an equivalent of a full season, right? Yeah. Like didn't play that much. They signed, they have David Peralta just, you know, they have Trace Thompson. I mean it's not a sexy looking outfield by any means cuz there's mooky bets, but Trace Thompson's been pretty good defensively. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. And given the guys that are hitting above him, I'm not sure they need much offensively from him. Right? You could always stick Chris Taylor in the outfield. They've got, um, you know, they've got a couple of prospects too to, to keep, to keep your eye out on. Um, to be honest, that may beat out, um, James Outman and Andy Pages are two guys that could be up very, uh, very soon if not one of them breaking camp with the team. Uh, and they could get a starting spot too.
Speaker 1 00:21:32 Yep, yep. Absolutely. And then the last one we talk about here also kind of in Los Angeles, but we're going to the Angels, uh, seems like Taylor Ward could lead off, which I was super excited to hear for some of the best balls that I've done. And then I also got super disappointed because now I feel like I'm not gonna be able to get him at the price that I was, uh, prior to that. Cuz now the, the narrative of hitting in front of Otani Trout and Rendon is quite alluring for his overall runs. Maybe his runs scored, maybe he runs a little bit. And then at the same point they envision Rendon being the cleanup hitter with Rendon it's health. Like he's going to have plenty of opportunities to drive runners in if he can be able to get his two feet into the batter's box more often than the past couple of seasons. Um, yeah. Which one are you more excited about Word leading off or Rendon hitting fourth from a fantasy perspective?
Speaker 2 00:22:22 So that's a very good question. I'm gonna lean and I know that I put Rendon in my sleeper article, um, well in my half of the sleeper article cuz you and I split that. Um, and that was simply because look, the guy, he's played basically the equivalent of a full season for the Angels over the last few years. And when you piece those stats together, it's a pretty good stat line. The question is, can he do a full season in one season and not take three years to do it? So for that regard, I'm gonna lean towards Taylor Ward leading off because he's gonna get pictures to hit hitting in front of trout when he is healthy and otani and now they've got Hunter Renfro. And I can't really count on Brandon jury at this point. Like he had a very good year last year, but like that's one year, right?
Speaker 2 00:23:17 Um, but yeah, I, I look Taylor Ward was like the talk of fantasy baseball for like a month last year, um, when he was just, everything he hit turned to turn to gold. So I'm gonna lean towards Taylor Ward. I think there's a sneaky amount of skill there. He's got on base skills. So if you're in an on base league, um, his value goes up a little bit more. He's got nice pop some decent speed and he is gonna be hitting a top. What is, if everybody stays healthy, a pretty sneaky good lineup for the angels.
Speaker 1 00:23:53 Yep. And the nice,
Speaker 2 00:23:54 I dunno if we can call it sneaky good when they have trout and otani, but I mean it's good outside of trout and otani. Yeah. It's actually a, a decently deep lineup if guys can stay healthy
Speaker 1 00:24:05 And that's what makes it sneaky good cuz like you could remove trout otani from the line, but it's like, all right, they still got Ward, they got Rendon, they got Renfro, uh, Drewry, who I almost
Speaker 2 00:24:14 Wolf to a
Speaker 1 00:24:15 Degree. I almost put jewelry as a bus this year cuz there's no chance he does what he does last. But that those were all inflated by Great American Small Park. So Yep. You know, and the nice thing with Ward two, I mean last year, first career, he still hits lefties better than righties. But last year big improvements against right-handed pitching as a right-handed hitter. So just nice to know. Hopefully he can stay at top of the order.
Speaker 2 00:24:35 By the way, on that note of Park Factors, it's not like the Angel Stadium is a pitcher of Haven mm-hmm. <affirmative>, it's actually one of the best hitters parks in baseball.
Speaker 1 00:24:44 Maybe it offsets some of the regression, but,
Speaker 2 00:24:47 But yes, I, I'm with you in general, we should expect to see quite a bit of regression from friend and jury. But just so that everybody's clear, it's not like the worst hitter, you know, it's, it's a pretty good hitters park.
Speaker 1 00:25:05 Yeah. And I mean like he's not getting the 28 home runs again. I'm just like, that's not going to happen. But mean when you look, if you, even if you just ignore his numbers from Cinci, right? The 46 games he was with San Diego. I mean eight home runs in 46 games isn't bad. He hit 2 38 as good as he was with Cincinnati. I don't think he does that this season. Maybe what he did in San Diego, that pace with maybe a slight bump in batting average maybe is kind of reasonable. Like a lot of projections have 'em like around two 40 with 18 to 20 home runs. That seems pretty realistic if I'm being honest.
Speaker 2 00:25:38 Yeah, I mean if we go with a three year rolling average on baseballs for their park averages, Coors Field is number one, great American Small Park is number two, Fenway is three, and Angel Stadium is four tied with uh, citizens Bank.
Speaker 1 00:25:57 Yep. Yep. AB so absolutely. So I'm not sure if you've listened to the past episodes. We've talked about this little thing called the Fantasy Alarm, fantasy Baseball Draft guide. It is completely free. F r E e free, free free. Just go to the, uh, just go to the website fancy alarm.com, get your copy of the draft. I think you have, you have to what make an account. You just have to make an account and then you get access to it for free.
Speaker 2 00:26:17 Um, yep. You just need a valid email to sign up for a free account for fa You don't need to subscribe to anything to create an account, just create one for free and then you get all of the juicy goodness of the MLB draft guide. Uh, well the articles and rankings and whatnot are free. The, I believe the preseason projections are still paid for. But there's also, uh, usually we're running running specials for like six months free. Like I'll give you six months free right now actually, if you use promo code nascar, uh, you can get six months at, not free, sorry, six months, 50% off on your subscription and using promo code, nascar,
Speaker 1 00:26:56 Promo code nascar. And then of course you get access to that. But then of course everything in the giraffe guy. So a ton of content is pumping out. We're doing the positional spotlights, I believe it's Monday through Friday. There's positions, each day content coming out about it. We have all of the different articles for strategies, if you like, dfs, once we start getting into M L B D F S season, all of that will be there in the fantasy. Lauren Fantasy Baseball draft guide, which is free. Uh, Matt in our Discord, we're starting to get some more questions coming in for baseball and um, always like some of these questions that we're getting, it's fun to see all the different league setups and different questions that can come about. And one that actually came right before we jumped on here as someone who won is a former catcher, uh, two who's doing the catcher spotlight this season, uh, here throughout the whole year at fantasy alarm catcher. Question came in the Discord, uh, person has vaio Rio Muto and Adley Rushman. They can start one catcher, but they have two utility spots. So technically they can start all three catchers if they want to, to keep Forever League with no penalty. The question here is, would you trade Rio Muto for Robby Ray six pitching spots, keeping Musgrove and uh, Uriah, which I'm assuming is going to be Julio uia, um, pitch.
Speaker 2 00:28:09 Well he's talking pitching, so Yeah, I assume be,
Speaker 1 00:28:11 Yeah. So
Speaker 2 00:28:12 As opposed to Luis
Speaker 1 00:28:13 Yeah. Or any other Uriah that could be kept that probably shouldn't be kept. So we're gonna go with Julio there. So let's, let's dive into this first. First off, what an embarrassment of riches at Catcher.
Speaker 2 00:28:24 I mean
Speaker 1 00:28:24 Yeah, those are three of my top four
Speaker 2 00:28:26 Also, by the way, does VA show count as an outfielder in his league? Cuz then the util spots don't matter.
Speaker 1 00:28:32 Um, I would assume that he would have catcher and outfield
Speaker 2 00:28:35 Eligibility. I would assume so. I haven't seen a league where he
Speaker 1 00:28:37 Doesn't Yeah, so really, but the thing with VA show is you, I, you ideally want to start him at Catcher because that's where his value's highest, but regardless, you know, you stole started regardless. So here's the thing. Are we in agreement between Vao, Rio Muto and Rushman that Rio Muto is the one to trade?
Speaker 2 00:28:57 Yes. Now for those of you who are immediately asking, why are you trading the top catcher in the league? Well, it's a keep forever league with no penalties, right? So it's a dynasty league. So in this case we're trading the guy who's older, right? Less shelf life on an older catcher than a younger catcher. So real muto of those three is definitely the guy I'm trading. Uh, I am Vaio would probably be the second I am not dealing at Leach.
Speaker 1 00:29:27 Correct.
Speaker 2 00:29:28 He came up halfway through last year and was immediately a top three catcher in fantasy baseball.
Speaker 1 00:29:35 Yeah. And the thing too with Rio Muto, like, I like him, I really like Rio Muto, but prior to last year, 13 stolen bases was his previous high. And then he just jumps to 21. Like there's been no precedent set for a catcher getting older and having this kind of a jump in stolen bases. Yeah. Um, but re regardless, even if he drops to like 15 stolen bases, he's still
Speaker 2 00:29:58 With the offensive additions the Phillies have made. I'm not sure he's running with Trade Turner on the bass pass.
Speaker 1 00:30:03 Yeah. So I mean you gotta, I'd say you gotta bank a little, probably a little regression, maybe the 15 to 16 range still incredibly valuable. But Rio Muto I do believe is, is the one to trade here. Now what I don't necessarily like, I am not trading Rio Muto for Robbie Ray. No, Robbie Ray is the issue here.
Speaker 2 00:30:23 Yeah, sorry. Robbie Ray is a very good starter for this year, but not a keeper Forever League.
Speaker 1 00:30:29 Yes. That, that would
Speaker 2 00:30:31 Be, I don't trust him past the next season
Speaker 1 00:30:33 And I don't think you can.
Speaker 2 00:30:35 Yeah.
Speaker 1 00:30:36 Like that's the, that's the issue. So if we, if we toil around here just to kind of some other guys, some other starters that are maybe in the same boat as Robbie Ray. So let's look at N F B C A D P from, we'll just do our good old January 1st date that we seem to love here. So Robbie Ray, 38th pitcher up the board. So some starters around him, you know, up a little bit. You got the likes of Mber, Tyler Glass now Tristan Mackenzie, George Kirby, hunter Green, Louis Severino, Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, those are guys kind of all going around. Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray is probably the one or or the second or first even lowest that I'd probably want amongst that tier of players at least I would say. Cause I just, I'm just out on Robbie Ray. I I haven't made
Speaker 2 00:31:24 That clear. You said Fram and I immediately popped to Frak.
Speaker 1 00:31:27 Yeah, yeah. I mean I, you'd have to see if that person would be willing to do that. Cuz
Speaker 2 00:31:31 Frame doesn't Mike also know who this, who else this person has to trade? We're just saying like if you're gonna put real muto on the trading block, you've certainly gotta get somebody better than than Robbie Ray in return out of, uh, Logan Gilbert intrigues me.
Speaker 1 00:31:51 What about George Kirby?
Speaker 2 00:31:52 George Kirby intrigues me before green that I don't know what to make of Hunter Green, to be perfectly honest.
Speaker 1 00:31:59 I would do Hunter Grain over Robbie Ray.
Speaker 2 00:32:01 Yes. <laugh>.
Speaker 1 00:32:02 Yeah, that's, that's the moral of the story. Anybody but Robbie Ray seems to be the moral here. Maybe not anybody, but you know what I mean. I
Speaker 2 00:32:09 Mean you said Tristan Mackenzie, who else was in that?
Speaker 1 00:32:11 Would you take Robbie Ray over Luis Severino? See if in like these, these are interesting, like the youth is going to get the bump. Like
Speaker 2 00:32:18 Yeah,
Speaker 1 00:32:19 That is, the youth gets bump in this trade because it's keep forever with no penalty. So it's Right. You get 'em forever.
Speaker 2 00:32:25 Right. I'd probably give the edge to seven Reno.
Speaker 1 00:32:29 Yeah. Couple, couple years of youth.
Speaker 2 00:32:33 Yeah. Um,
Speaker 1 00:32:35 Well only a couple, but still plays.
Speaker 2 00:32:37 But yeah, in general, general though, that's, that's the, the idea, you can't trade your oldest piece and get a similarly old and arguably more rundown uh, piece back.
Speaker 1 00:32:51 Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:32:52 Yeah. Especially when we're talking about, I know it's a one catcher league, but you can't give up the best guy at that position and get back maybe the 30
Speaker 1 00:33:01 Secondth. Yeah. Like a high end trading the one of the two elite difference makers at the position. Yes. You still have the other one, but you're trading one for what, a high end s sp three maybe?
Speaker 2 00:33:14 Yeah, I mean, well if he's, he's what the 30th off the board N fbc,
Speaker 1 00:33:19 It does include relievers, but he's the 38th pitcher and I can see I've counted at least six relievers if not seven ahead of him. So maybe basically s sp 30. So in a 15 team league backend S sp two.
Speaker 2 00:33:32 Right. We're a 12 team league. You're talking mids. SP three.
Speaker 1 00:33:35 Yeah. For catcher one or catcher like Rio Muto. Just because of what he does with the bat and on the bases. He's,
Speaker 2 00:33:41 And we're not saying this
Speaker 1 00:33:42 Second catcher.
Speaker 2 00:33:43 Yeah, we're not saying this is the last year of real muto, right? No, no. We've got a few very good years left. But I don't think the scene can be sent for Robbie
Speaker 1 00:33:53 Ray. I would agree wholeheartedly with that.
Speaker 2 00:33:56 And you're certainly not trading Vho in the new softball park that he's playing in in Toronto or Rushman who's gonna be the best catcher in baseball for like the next decade.
Speaker 1 00:34:07 And with the shift of schedule like they're p cuz they're playing more divisional games with the schedule. So we're just gonna get more of Rushman and Vao. May I add in Yankee stadium in Toronto's softball stadium? I know Baltimore just their stuff a little bit. So that's a bit different.
Speaker 2 00:34:21 A little bit. They have the deepest left field in
Speaker 1 00:34:23 Baseball <laugh>. Yeah. So like, but still more games in that division won't hurt those hitters. Agreed.
Speaker 2 00:34:29 So
Speaker 1 00:34:29 So it's a net positive.
Speaker 2 00:34:31 Yeah.
Speaker 1 00:34:32 So yep, I'm in agreement. I would
Speaker 2 00:34:33 That's a very interesting, it's a very interesting scenario because A, you can keep all three because you can play all three. So if you don't get anything more appealing keeper El Muto.
Speaker 1 00:34:44 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:34:45 There's nothing that's, that's necessarily holding you back unless you're up against your keeper limit, which I don't know what the keeper limit is. It's says six pitching spots you've listed that you're keeping two pitchers.
Speaker 1 00:34:58 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:34:59 And then there's the three catchers. So I don't know what the keeper limit is if you have to trade one, if you have to with's three on muto. If you don't then I'm keeping all three.
Speaker 1 00:35:08 Yep. And enjoy all of the statistical production.
Speaker 2 00:35:11 Yeah. Doesn't a util spot maybe, maybe doesn't necessarily either util spot, cuz again, VA show can play in the outfield.
Speaker 1 00:35:22 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:35:23 And yes, I know his value is but here's the thing, once he's on the roster, it doesn't matter what positional spot, you're not getting a boost on your roster if a guy sits in a certain spot on your roster. Right. He's just there for stats.
Speaker 1 00:35:42 Absolutely. So last little bit here, before we wrap up this episode, I wanna talk a little bit of auction draft strategy. So in the draft guide there is the article, I believe it was written by Ray Coon and uh, just kind of talking about auction strategy. So when you look at talking about you in auction, as you know, you can build your team how you want. You are not beholden to your draft spot or the draft board as, uh, as Ray says, if you want a Kuya, Tais and Vladi Jr go for it. Good luck with the rest of it. But you can have those three studs and have some fun with it. Um, talks about preparation, having a plan, a great article. I would recommend reading it. So what in auction drafts, what do you like to do? Like do you, do you go by the typical, um, I believe it's like a 65, 35 split between hitters and pitchers I think is, I think what Ray mentions in the article? Or do you kind of just go to the board and chase value?
Speaker 2 00:36:31 Um, well so let me preface this by saying my main auction league is different than basically everybody else is on the planet. Okay. Um, except for the 20 guys that are in my home league. Right. Um, we have about the same roster construction as most leagues. It's a two catcher league. There's nine pitchers spots, could be starters, relievers, whatever. Um, we have innings, minimums that we have to hit. Otherwise you lose stats in pitching categories. That's to keep people from stacking relievers. Um, so for my league, the way I typically set it up is I'm going at minimum, yeah. I mean 65, 35 is probably not bad, but usually I'm closer to 68, 32, 70, 30 split. Because the other thing is we have keepers. So like I have, I typically wind up doing a very good job not to do my own horn, but I do a very good job of farming prospects in my league.
Speaker 2 00:37:38 And typically I have gotten, I've had success by getting, uh, up and coming pitching prospects. Like right now I have Daniel Espino and Taj Bradley in my prospects that I get to keep. So when they come up and they're on my roster, I get them for very, very cheap. And I have two basically ace caliber pitchers for very cheap. So that saves me money from having two, uh, you know, spend in the auction. But I would generally say I try to set it up about 68, 32, maybe 70 30. Um, and then from there I'm gonna use the bulk of that pitching budget to go after a top nine starting pitcher. I want a guy that's gonna, that's gonna anchor my spot, give me innings, gimme wins, gimme a very good e r a good whip and a lot of strikeouts, right? So we're talking about the Garrick Cole, the scherzer's, the ver landers, bieber's, you know, uh, of the world.
Speaker 2 00:38:37 And then from there I have target goals that I want for categories. So if a guy comes up, I will go after. I have certain guys that I try to go after every year cuz I, I like them quite a lot. Kyle Tucker. I don't think I'm letting anybody in my league know. He's like my favorite dude to go target cuz he is just a 30, 30 guy waiting to happen. So I will go after a couple of big targets and then after that, however the board falls with categories that I still need is where I go after. It's just a read the room strategy is what I go after. Basically. It may change every year based on how the stats project, how averages project, um, who comes up when in the auction. Cuz that's another thing, right? My league does it differently. We don't nominate players. We go through teams at a time, right? We pull a team name out of a hat and then we read off the roster pitchers first and alphabetical order, then catchers, infielders, outfielders. So we don't know which order the teams are coming up, but let's say the six crappiest rosters come up first. Well now there's a lot of money left on the board and not a lot of dudes off the board. So that'll change draft strategies in, in my league. So it's basically a read the room strategy for me.
Speaker 1 00:39:55 And then in mostly league where you do the nominating players. Yes. Like I I remember talking about this like in fantasy football season when you, you know, you nominate the player and like when I was in the Kings Classic drafts out in uh Canton, you know, you nominate the player and throw it out there. An interesting strategy is do you always nominate somebody that you don't want? Do you try to nominate somebody that you do want, do the, you know, does, do your league mates know you in that strategy? So for leagues that do nominate their players, do you have a default to where like Yes, typically what I like to do, I don't like to tip my hand, but early on in drafts I will nominate players that I don't want at a particular position because I want the market established
Speaker 2 00:40:36 The money off
Speaker 1 00:40:37 The board. Correct. So like in Canton this year for the King's Classic, I didn't want Travis Kelsey, I wasn't gonna pay out for him. I wanted Kyle Pitts, but I wanted to know how much Kelsey was going to go for, right. So that I could establish, all right, Kelsey goes for 30, I'm willing to go to 22 on Pitts. Like I want to know, I want to establish the market for that position. Is that something that you would recommend people doing?
Speaker 2 00:40:59 Yeah, uh, I, I do that as well in, I play in a few, you know, I've played uh, in a few auction leagues that, you know, does the standard nominate the player $260 budget, all that good stuff. Um, and I do basically the same thing. Like I'm not gonna try to sneak a sleeper in that I want early in a draft cuz there's too much money on the board and then they don't become a sleeper and then you may lose 'em cuz you don't wanna pay extra for a guy you were wanting to get late in the draft. Right? So I am gonna nominate guys that I don't, not that I, well sometimes it's guys that I truly don't want at a position. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, um, some guy. Sometimes it's, well if this doesn't go up cause people are reticent, then I'll take 'em and I'll get 'em at a discount. Right? Um, but yeah, I will start by trying to set the market on a position so I know where to work from from there and maybe I can sneak a guy in. Ooh sneak a guy in late.
Speaker 1 00:42:00 Yeah. And the other thing with the auction mentalities too is especially early on there are some instances where people are almost a bit reluctant to spend money. Yeah. So the other way to look at it too is you can set the market on a player or if you say hey, in the beginning, you know, everybody here is slow starters for auctions. Maybe instead of nominating like a top guy, you know, looking at a list, maybe you put the likes of uh, you know, at third base let's say you could put Bregman cuz he's just outside of that kind of that second tier of the position people might not be willing to spend, you might be able to save a couple bucks there. So like there is definitely strategy to an auction draft that begins before you even talk about bidding on players. We're talking about the who the when, like there is and, and you gotta know your league mates with that, right? We talk about that too, like know your league mates. Like are people money hoarders because they wanna save it for the studs. Can you get some cheap value early on? Like that's, you gotta know, you gotta know your league and you gotta know your league's rules and you gotta know your league mates. That's really what it comes down.
Speaker 2 00:42:57 And also do, do owners have favorite teams because Yeah,
Speaker 1 00:43:00 I get screwed on that one.
Speaker 2 00:43:02 What?
Speaker 1 00:43:03 I get screwed on that one.
Speaker 2 00:43:05 So my home league, the Orioles go for a lot more than they should because half my league is, so it's based on the I 95 New York Baltimore DC corridor, right? So a lot of the league is Baltimore fans. So you're never gonna sneak an oriole past anybody in this league. It basically never happens. It could be the worst dude on any roster ever. And it's still an orio and they're still gonna, you're just not gonna sneak him past. So you can use that to your advantage, right? Somebody really wants, like let's say you have a Yankees fan and they really want Aaron Judge. Okay? So you can use that to clear money off the table sooner rather than later because they're a Yankees fan, they have a lot of money to spend, they want this guy, you can bit him up cautiously so you don't wind up getting a guy that you may not want. So yeah, all of those things can be, let's say you really don't care who you get as a catcher. Toss out the seventh best catcher early in a draft and get 'em for cheap because everybody's waiting for real Muto or VA show or Ruman or Will Smith or hell even Wilson Contreras maybe, I don't know. But like if it doesn't matter to you who's playing catcher, tell us out K Bear Ruiz and get 'em for a buck.
Speaker 1 00:44:21 Yep. Because early on no one's gonna be like, oh I don't want him for two. But once you already have nine catchers off the board, three team Stoney Catchers k Bear Ruiz at $2 becomes a lot more enticing. Right?
Speaker 2 00:44:30 Cause now he's the number, number one catcher on the board cuz he's like, he starts, let's say he starts as the 10th and now you got nine catchers off the board. Now he's the best one. Now people are gonna pay up because it's the best remaining guy at the position.
Speaker 1 00:44:41 Well it's all supply and demand, right? Yes. In the beginning there's a lot of supply. So the demand for K Bear Ruiz is low. Once you get rid of the top nine guys that demand for Ruiz becomes better. You ain't getting 'em for a buck anymore.
Speaker 2 00:44:51 Exactly. That's another trick with the auctions by the way. If you can't figure out why guys in the middle of the draft are suddenly spiking, it's because of the best guys available at that position left and then there's a fall off. So it's always helpful to show up with rankings and have 'em broken out in tier and then cross 'em off as guys get bought. Whether you bought 'em or not, just cross 'em off and then you can monitor the tier and if a guy falls through the cracks, now you can target it. But if, you know, let's say there's six first basement off the board and Anthony Rizzo's there, but now there's a drop off after him, Anthony Rizzo might go for more than the fourth or third first basement cuz nobody wants to drop off guy.
Speaker 1 00:45:29 Yeah. And we see it. And then also building on that, we see it in snake drafts more often than not. Like know whom else your team has taken. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, like if you're at the wheel, the two teams after you or you're near the wheel, the two teams after you both have catchers. You don't have to take a catcher at that first part of the turn. You can do it on the back half, especially in auction. Know, know what your league has done. Like yes, you'd wanna know how much money they have and what their max bid is, especially for stars. But at the same point, you want to know whom they have. Like if, if you know you're gonna get in a bidding war with somebody for Jose Ramirez, right? And you're looking at their team and just for some reason Ramirez, it hasn't been nominated yet, they don't have any starting pitching, throw out the best remaining starter hoping that team spends a little bit more.
Speaker 1 00:46:15 Cuz once they've dropped 30, 35 on somebody coming right back with Jose Ramirez and to drop another 30 or 35, like there are some owners when it comes to spending money that will get a bit cold feet after they drop a bunch of money on somebody. Cuz it's like, you know, everybody loves to look at the back bid, right? Ooh, I could do 140 some dollars on this player after two picks. When that drops to like in the sixties, there's like a, oh no, I don't really have a ton of money when really that's not the case,
Speaker 2 00:46:42 Right?
Speaker 1 00:46:43 So there's, there's auction drafts or drafts within a draft and strategies within a strategy. And it begins well before the, the first player is even acquired. It begins with the first nomination and really it even begins before the draft cuz you're taking the past couple of years into account as well.
Speaker 2 00:47:00 Mm-hmm.
Speaker 1 00:47:00 <affirmative>. So check out, check out Ray's article in the draft guide for more talk about auction. We talked about a good bit here, but Ray does a great job breaking it down. So check that out again in the fantasy arm fantasy baseball draft [email protected]
. Once again, it is free. Um, Matt, that'll put a bow on this episode. So any parting shots for you other than I'll tell everybody that they can find you on Twitter at the sales man.
Speaker 2 00:47:21 Nope. I mean, we got, uh, some more MLB coverage. We got a mock draft coming out soon. A staff mock draft, the first one of the, the, uh, spring training here. Um, we'll have I think supplier debates rolling out if I'm not mistaken. Um, so just keep your eyes peeled on the ever changing MLB draft guide. Obviously NASCAR contents flowing out this weekend again. And, uh, everybody go don't, don't fall for everything. You see a beat writer tweet out.
Speaker 1 00:47:53 Yep. I think that is good. Get excited about the ones you want, but also don't overreact.
Speaker 2 00:48:00 Yep.
Speaker 1 00:48:00 It's the best piece of advice we can give. So, like I said, give Matt a follow on Twitter at the Sales Man. I'm on Twitter at Colby r Conway. Go to fantasy alarm.com, get your free, free, free copy of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft guide and then we will see you next week with the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast.