Episode Transcript
Speaker 1 00:00:08 And welcome into the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball podcast. Last week you had the joy of not hearing me, Colby Conway at Colby r Conway, and got to listen to Matt Sells my regular coach. And James Grande, who is the, I guess we'll call him, I don't, I don't wanna call him the tertiary guy, but he's, he's kind of the, he's the fill in when needed for us. And, um, it's good to hear, I got to tune in a little bit. Last week I was in Mexico, uh, for a little vacation. Got to tune in and heard some pirates in Texans slander in the beginning. And a little upset by that. But I got past it. So, um, Matt, uh, Matt sells with me at the Sales Man on Twitter other than, uh, trashing my teams in the beginning of last week. Um, it's good to be back with you. And how is everything going for you, my friend?
Speaker 2 00:00:52 Um, it's, it's going pretty well. I do have to say it's two days before my kids spring break and it snowed here this morning. Um, so there's that. I mean, not a lot of snow, just, you know, dusting some nice big flakes that were pretty fun to look at. But, um, things are good outside of baseball. And then baseball happened today. And aside from Shohet, dual threat dominating in the wbc, uh, things are not, not so great for those of us who are looking to draft a a big name pitcher. It's kinda a kind of concerning news We got outta Yankees camp today. So other than that, uh, I'm doing all right.
Speaker 1 00:01:36 Yeah, it's, you know, it's one of those things in the, in the off season. We don't, I guess, oh, we're pre-season now, but in the off-season we don't quite get those injury updates and everything is, everything's ho hum, everything's fine. There's many big breaks, but at some point, you know, we see it mostly in football. You know, at some point these guys gotta start playing football and here at some point these guys gotta start playing baseball stuff is going to happen as we have seen. So we're gonna spend a little bit of time on injury talk and then we're gonna get into some other stuff that we've seen beyond the injuries. Um, but the first one we have to touch on top fantasy arm. Let me re-clarify. One of the top fantasy arms going down with the forearm strain. Uh, if you've listened to the podcast before, you know Matt and I, whenever it's forearm, you might as well just throw up a Big X cuz we are mostly out, for the most part when it comes to it, cuz he is not gonna fall to a spot where we can get him.
Speaker 1 00:02:29 But Carlos Rodan of the New York Yankees will not throw for seven to 10 days, then we'll be reevaluated with a forearm strain. Matt, Carlos Rodan, at this point, I know we're both anti forearms, so I kind of know where you're going with this. Um, can you, I'll, I'll, I'll make it easier for you. Can you comfortably draft Rodan if you're, if you're in a slow draft right now that just started, or maybe your league's home, your home league draft is maybe Saturday or Sunday night, can you feel comfortable drafting Rodan with a dreaded forearm issue?
Speaker 2 00:03:02 Well, I'm torn on this one. So let me preface this by saying I would prefer to be drafting after the seven to 10 days are done and get more clarity on where he is in the process or, uh, what treatments they've done before it or whatnot. So like for my home draft, right? I don't draft until March 25th. So at that point hoping to have enough info to make a decision about Rodan and drafting him. Um, if you're in a slow draft now, I might see how slow the draft is moving and just try to play it out. Um, that being said, and I know typically we are out on guys with forearm issues because it's usually good name for something else, right? Like Walker Bueller went down with a forearm strain late last year and everybody and their mother knew it was gonna wind up being Tommy John, but for some reason he delayed the surgery so long that now he is gonna miss the entirety of this year as opposed to coming back in the middle of this year.
Speaker 2 00:04:07 Cuz he wound up having Tommy John Carlos Rodan though, according to at least Brian Cashman, who is, uh, there's a video of him on going around Twitter being interviewed, uh, by the Yankee Beat writers saying that Rodan had this issue last year and basically pitched through it and didn't wind up missing any time. So I guess that's a little comforting, but also like, is this a long term thing, right? Like did he pitch on borrow time last year and now the Yankees are the ones that are picking up the pieces from it, or is he truly going to be okay like he was last year? I don't know. So there's a little bit of hope there, but also part of me is like, well he pitched with this for a year. Is this now just the last, like you've stretched it as far as it can go and now you're gonna have to like miss a chunk of time to actually heal it. So if you're drafting right, right now, I might look elsewhere just because we don't know everything yet. If you're drafting later in March, like maybe the week of like, I have another draft that's literally the night before the season starts, right? Um, if you're drafting the last week of March, then just wait to see what the news is. There's nothing you can do about it right now. So that, that's kind of where I stand on Rodan.
Speaker 1 00:05:40 And I, I think you hit the right point. You kind of talked about borrowed time that he might be on to me the way I envisioned it. Maybe it's the, the pessimist in me or I guess the, the optimist in me wants to say it's the realist in me and looking at it this way. But is he just kicking the, kicking the can down the curb, right? Or we just, you know, you keep walking forward no matter how far you kick the ball or kick the can or kick the stone, you're gonna catch up to it. It's going to catch up to you at some point. So let me do it. Let me ask you this. Since February 1st, Rodan is the 11th pitcher off the board, yes or no, I'm gonna move up these guys behind him. Are you still, are you going to take Rodan over them? So right behind him, McClanahan
Speaker 2 00:06:17 Taking mcc, I mean McClanahan should be in the top 10,
Speaker 1 00:06:20 Correct?
Speaker 2 00:06:21 To begin with.
Speaker 1 00:06:21 Berlander,
Speaker 2 00:06:23 Yes.
Speaker 1 00:06:23 Deese.
Speaker 2 00:06:26 I don't know man. Did you see his start today in spring
Speaker 1 00:06:29 Training? I sure did given that, you know, he was a guy that I put as a potential bust candidate, so I'm kind of watching him under a microscope because he's a high profile guy.
Speaker 2 00:06:38 His last spring training start, he went two thirds of an inn ending, gave up seven hits and 1100 runs. So, I don't know, man, I traded him last year. I kind of regretted it a little bit. Um, but I think there's regression like he's just, yes, the control is too much of an issue for me.
Speaker 1 00:06:53 What about Scher?
Speaker 2 00:06:54 Yes. I'll draft him over
Speaker 1 00:06:56 Rodan Bieber.
Speaker 2 00:06:58 Yeah, he should have been up there in the, I mean I don't get why he's <laugh> down there to begin with,
Speaker 1 00:07:05 But, and then the next, the next four after that are Wheeler, Julio, Luis Castillo, Christian Javier.
Speaker 2 00:07:10 Mm.
Speaker 1 00:07:12 So the fact that you're thinking there wheeler's down in 18, so you've already moved Rodan back. I mean maybe Cease falls a little bit too, but you've already dropped Rodan seven spots, which is actually about round and a half in 15 team formats or nearly three or two and a half rounds in 10 team setups. That's how far you've already just committed to moving Rodan now, which I think is fair. I I think it's very fair
Speaker 2 00:07:35 Probably. I mean that's for me still being in on um, Rodan despite the forearm. Yeah, I mean if, if I'm drafting right now, I'm going a couple rounds later on him and just hoping for the best.
Speaker 1 00:07:53 Yep. I think that's the way to attack it as well in or staying in the American League east in Toronto, Vladi Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A little bit of, I believe it's knee inflammation I believe is the word Yes. That they called it. Um, he's sounds like he's like doing straight line work and some stuff they don't really seem too concerned about opening day. I believe he withdrew from the W bbc. Yes. Um, so any concern with him for opening day? I don't really think there's too much to be worried about with Lottie, but I mean I'm not moving him down because of this news I guess is what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 2 00:08:24 No, I'm not that concerned. Um, it's bound to, you know, creep up on you when you start moving more than you have in the last few months. And I mean cuz keep in mind these guys are actually playing games now. They're not just standing there doing hitting drills or standing there doing field practice, right? They're actually running their move and they're, you know, going through the whole uh, game actions and that tends to work things a little differently than just doing drills. Plus it popped up on him throughout last year too, if I remember correctly. He sat a couple of days, um, in a row for this. So I'm not overly concerned. Um, it's not gonna be an I like Rodan is going to start the year on the I hours. Basically what the Yankees said we're not to that point with uh, Vlad. So I'm not that concerned.
Speaker 1 00:09:22 And with a guy like Vlad too, I mean obviously just stick him at, you can stick him at dh right? Um, and then at first base they can do Alejandro Kirk. They could do Brandon Belt. I'm hoping it's belt. Yep. My T G F B I team is really hoping it's belt cuz I drafted him very late. So hoping it's him but not much to be working. Cause
Speaker 2 00:09:38 Here's the thing, if you hit him outta that softball park they call home in Toronto, you can run around the bases as slow as you want to.
Speaker 1 00:09:48 That's a good idea.
Speaker 2 00:09:49 So cheat code for Flatty
Speaker 1 00:09:52 <laugh>. Absolutely. And last one, injury talk before we talk about some other stuff we've seen in Spring. Um, I don't wanna throw it out there but you know Dusty Baker, maybe a little ageist if I can say that. Yeah. Um, you know they, he's basically already said if Michael Brantley is healthy and it sounds like he's going to be on track for opening day, he is hitting second in that lineup. And I mean the quote was something along the lines of, actually it's not along the lines of it was if Brantley is in the lineup, Brantley is number two. I know Pena's been good but Penia ain't been good as long as Brantley. Um, okay so first off, wherever Michael Brantley is going in drafts, if he's healthy, even if he only hits nine home runs and hits for a two 70 ish average, he's gonna score a hell of a lot of runs. Cause that's darn
Speaker 2 00:10:40 Good line. He hit Hein Altuve and in front of Kyle, Tucker Jordon and Jose Abrao
Speaker 1 00:10:47 And if they're gonna stick Penia, I don't think they'd put 'em at nine. I think they try to put him six or seven probably. But if Penia hits nine, that means you have Penia Altuve ahead of Brantley and then right, the boys behind him,
Speaker 2 00:11:01 I think, I think they almost, if you're not gonna hit Penia a second, you almost have to hit him ninth.
Speaker 1 00:11:07 That's the second lead off guy,
Speaker 2 00:11:09 Right? Because now you're creating a circular li because here's the thing and
Speaker 1 00:11:14 Someone who can turn the line up over,
Speaker 2 00:11:16 Right? If your argument is that you want Penia to be good, he just hasn't shown it for more than a year, which okay,
Speaker 1 00:11:24 Well what's fault that,
Speaker 2 00:11:25 But it's not really his fault. Yeah, it's like y'all didn't call him up a year earlier. Um, but he is also like the defending, didn't he win the World Series M V P <laugh> last year, if I'm not mistaken. Um, so like that's kind of a dish on a guy who showed up in big moments for you. But secondly, if you're gonna hit, like if you want him 'em to be good and a part of the offense after Jose Abreu, you've still got who, you've got Bregman to fit in there, right? Are you hitting Bregman fifth and Abreu sixth and then the only guys left are whoever you're starting catcher is, I presume Martin Maldonado and then Chaz McCormick starting in Centerfield and then Pena. So if you put Pena in front of those two, he's not gonna get anything to hit. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, right? Like if my choice is pitching to Jeremy Pena or Chaz McCormick, I'm gonna pick McCormick.
Speaker 1 00:12:39 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:12:40 Or Malto.
Speaker 1 00:12:41 Yeah. And like the other
Speaker 2 00:12:43 But you gotta hit him ninth.
Speaker 1 00:12:44 Yeah. And the other thing too is like if, if if in between the lines, if, if Dusty Baker's saying, well I just need a, I need a lefty in there cuz of a righty. It's not even a righty topheavy lineup, right? Kyle Tucker, you wanna hit him too? Hell hit your on too. I don't care. But
Speaker 2 00:13:02 I mean I understand two would be, I mean here's the thing. What what are you doing with the speed that Tucker has? Because at some point when you hit him in the middle of the lineup, you're taking his legs away from him.
Speaker 1 00:13:17 Well if they, there have been reports that apparently the contract might be tougher with Tucker, if you want to drop him down a little bit, I mean his number other numbers are gonna be fine but you know, instead of him saying I'm a 30 30 guy, I'm only a 30 20 guy. If he's gonna run less and they, maybe they use that in contract negotiations cuz it's, it's a business. I get it. But
Speaker 2 00:13:34 Okay, so here's an interesting thing. If you look at roster resource, they have Altuve then Brantley, Bregman, Jordon Brau Tucker sixth Pen, the seventh McCormick eighth and Maldonado ninth.
Speaker 1 00:13:53 I think you gotta go Penan nine.
Speaker 2 00:13:55 I think you gotta go penan nine Cuz otherwise
Speaker 1 00:13:57 You're not turning the lineup over.
Speaker 2 00:13:59 You're not Yeah, you've just got two basically dead spots.
Speaker 1 00:14:03 Yeah, I don't, I mean
Speaker 2 00:14:05 It's not like McCormick is terrible but like
Speaker 1 00:14:07 No it's just this Pena or this Brantley hitting second religious. Those are wrench into everything.
Speaker 2 00:14:13 Yeah, I don't, I don't understand like the guy doesn't run and he doesn't have pop anymore. He
Speaker 1 00:14:22 Used and he's coming off a shoulder. So who, who like there was already diminished pop last year. I mean how much was a
Speaker 2 00:14:27 Shorter play? If you want a professional hitter then why not put a professional hitter like further down so that any run, like any late inning rally you need can get Jumpstarted by Brantley and then all you need is a bass runner that point, right? Then other guys can, can connect with one, right? Like I don't get the Brantley hitting two thing and if your argument and if his argument is it sets up a righty lefty righty lefty righty lefty righty. Top seven
Speaker 1 00:15:08 There's better lefties.
Speaker 2 00:15:11 You've got Jordon and Kyle Tucker who are both lefty who should be higher than Brantley in the lineup. So
Speaker 1 00:15:18 Yeah and like ultimately, like I understand Brantley's got a 3 55 plus O B P for six straight years. Now again some injuries in there and such, but for the rare occasion he stays healthy. No, let's say no one on the team for Houston gets hurt, right? Everybody has 600 at bats cuz it just works out perfectly like that. Mm-hmm <affirmative> or you know, say the second spot has six 50 and you know you work your way down from there. Wouldn't you prefer 650 at bats from Tucker or Alvarez compared to 650 from Brantley
Speaker 2 00:15:50 Or Hal Pena
Speaker 1 00:15:51 Or Yeah, even Penia at that point. It's just, I understand why you put him there. He gets on base, he makes contact, he can do things for the offense maybe. Maybe we're looking too much from a fantasy realm from it. Now Brantley's brantley's a steal late though, don't get me wrong. Like if you need average and runs at this point I'm fine with him cause he's going outside the top 400. So at that point he's a fine value. But yeah, it's just, it's not exciting for fantasy outside of the one slash two categories he's going to impact.
Speaker 2 00:16:23 Okay, here's my, here's my question cuz Nimo is kind of a similar guy. Would you rather have Brantley or Nimo?
Speaker 1 00:16:33 Well I mean in a, in a vacuum it's, it's gonna be Nimo he at least provides a little more with the bat in terms of power. But if we're talking price per dollar, per dollar spent, it's kind of hard to argue with Brantley outside of 400,
Speaker 2 00:16:45 Right? Because Nemo's going so much higher in draft, but he's essential like outside of a few more homers.
Speaker 1 00:16:52 Yeah
Speaker 2 00:16:53 Because like if you, if you presume that Brantley hits maybe 10 homers, right? I think that's being a little generous. But let's say he gets to 10 Homers, like Nimo had 16 last year in 150 games. So like outside of a handful of homers I think they're pretty close cuz Nimo doesn't really steal
Speaker 1 00:17:17 And Braley ain't running anymore.
Speaker 2 00:17:19 No he'll get one get one. They both provide, I mean better average for uh, Brantley, better on base percentage for Nimo, you can make the argument that the Astros lineup is a tab better than the Mets lineup. But I would say like in a straight up production, like taking price point out of it, it'd be Nimo but in a price per dollar it gets a lot closer for me.
Speaker 1 00:17:51 Yep, yep. Absolutely. And we'll obviously, well I should say unfortunately stuff's gonna keep popping up. We'll continue to talk about it as things go along as we get closer and closer. Well
Speaker 2 00:18:00 What about Yor Don's hand? Are you concerned at all?
Speaker 1 00:18:04 I would say my concern is higher than where it was a week ago.
Speaker 2 00:18:13 I would agree. Cause he's not really doing, he's not swinging.
Speaker 1 00:18:17 I believe he's supposed to start, I believe he's supposed to swing in the coming days,
Speaker 2 00:18:21 Right. But he was
Speaker 1 00:18:22 Like,
Speaker 2 00:18:23 That's swing now we're a week closer to the season starting and he hasn't ramped up. So yes, I'm starting to get a little more concerned.
Speaker 1 00:18:31 Yes,
Speaker 2 00:18:32 But there's nothing surgically wrong. It's just pain basically at this point. So
Speaker 1 00:18:40 Yep, yep, yep, yep. I, I agree and we'll see. And a week from now I hope my concern is quelled a little bit cuz there's been some good news there but it's, it's more than it was a week ago, which is also more than it was a week ago from that point. So it's kinda where I stand with Jordon. And of course as we're getting into spring training games, pitch velocity for the pitchers, such a fickle position is something that is being dissected, scrutinized, analyzed, everything in between. So just gonna touch on a couple of, I guess what I deemed to be interesting names, um, from what we have seen. So, and Matt, I just wanna get your thoughts on these and kind of what we should see for the season. So in Toronto, uh, you actually talked about before we jumped on here, I highlighted Alec Mano in particular as his velo was down. You said it might be a a Toronto thing, uh, that could be hashtag Toronto thing that it's down across the board and Chris Bassett was also down. So let's focus in on Manoa first. He's the higher fantasy profile guy, his velos down a little bit to begin spring. Do you have any concern at this point in time as we're recording this on March 9th with a little bit of a velo drop from Manoah here in his first handful of spring starts?
Speaker 2 00:19:49 No, because like we've seen several pictures is of late do this, right? There's been some talk over the last few years of some big name guys whose velo early in spring everybody was concerned about and then by the time it got to May, it was right back to where it was, right? Um, and the fact that there are two different Blue Jay's pitchers doing this and Bassett has come out and said it's because I want to like make sure my arm is good for the long haul. I think Toronto believes they can win this division this year. And with the Carlos Rodan news, if it's bad news, I don't see how Toronto doesn't win the division to be honest. So I think it's more about pacing, um, for them. And look, it's a weird spring, kind of a short, it's more of a compact spring and maybe they're also pacing themselves because the pitch clock may have a little more effect on their stamina as the season goes, perhaps. Um, I don't know, but I'm not, it's not like it was an instantaneous drop drop, right? It's not like we saw Manoah go out and pump 98 and then the next artery he was down the 92, which would be a telltale sign. Something is wrong. It's, he's been consistently under and I think it's him and Bassett just building up. I'm not that concerned about it.
Speaker 1 00:21:25 And I think you hit the nail in the head and like the pitchers, even if they're in good shape, it, this is an adjustment. They're not used to this. You know, if you were ramped up and everything, you could take your time. You know, we got the pitch clock now. I think that's playing a part into it. They just have to adjust to that. Uh, I'm in agreeance with you Manoa's velo being down, I'm not overly worried about and it's not all that drastic. So it's not something that I think warrants too much concern. Much like I think Edwin Diaz's velocity is a little bit down. I'm not gonna harp too much on this one. It's a closer. Adrenaline is a hell of a drug, you know, that, you know, when he comes out for spring training, I could be wrong. I don't think he's getting Timmy Trumpets. Um, I'm
Speaker 2 00:22:02 Pretty sure they don't do Timmy trumpets
Speaker 1 00:22:04 Or Timmy, I guess Timmy trumpet's not his song, but he's the one that did it the one time on the thing. But I don't believe there's any trumpet thing. He doesn't have the adrenaline closers I'm not as concerned about for the most part, especially top pedigree ones like Diaz. Would you agree?
Speaker 2 00:22:18 I would agree. I'm not, I'm not all that. And, and look, we're also entering a time where yes, everybody's talking about velo and and whatnot, but there's starting to become discussion that it's not all about velo to strike guys out. It's about movement. It's about count, like being counterintuitive to what pitch you're throwing in what count it's about more breaking pitches. Um, and so if g look, we saw Thor be really effective last year, right? This is a guy who's known for pumping straight heat and striking guys out. Did he strike out as many guys last year? No. Did he stay healthy the whole season? Yes. Was he still effective? Yeah, he still struck out a pretty decent amount of guys and kept guys on their toes. So, you know, maybe if these guys had to pitch it close to Max's effort to hit those speeds, then maybe this is a wiser decision.
Speaker 2 00:23:22 I'm, you know, or they're just pacing themselves, right? Like think about um, like Colby, when you, when when you played, you didn't go full bore right into game action as fast as physically possible, right? You all did a couple of weeks of ramping up and you did drills and even the first games you weren't really going full speed cuz your body's still getting used to stuff. So I I, I'm not, in general, I'm not gonna put a whole lot of emphasis on spring training belos. Unless we see a guy who one start looks fantastic and is pumping it in there at like 95, 98 and the next start is like five miles an hour slower. Then you get concerned cuz there's something wrong, right? But spring training is also time for these guys to work on stuff. Maybe they're working on spin and they're not getting as much belo. I don't know.
Speaker 1 00:24:20 Yeah, there's a lot. There's definitely a lot that goes into it and I think a lot of times with the, when we see pitch velocities and stuff, the almost you could say the bigger thing at play is whether you are in or out on that guy. And using that as like confirmation bias, right? Exactly. So like for example, I'm gonna skip a guy in here, but in Miami I really want AJ Puck to emerge as the closer. So am I looking into Dylan Flora's velocity being down a little bit? A hundred percent I am because I'm kind of very invested de puck being the closer
Speaker 2 00:24:49 It plays into your narrative that you want to. Exactly,
Speaker 1 00:24:52 Exactly. So I mean Dill Flores, everything was within reason as fastball was about a mile and a half, uh, mile, mile per hour, slower basically. Um, so lemme just quick question about Floo here. Which, are you more concerned about the average, about of a three quarters to a mile an hour drop across the board for his pitches or that he didn't register any whiffs on uh, six swings? Which of those do you buy into more at this point?
Speaker 2 00:25:17 I'm more concerned at the not registering whiffs because a closer's job is to come in and miss bats, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative> like you, you don't get a job being a closer if you're an 80% contact guy and you're relying on your defense, right? So the fact that he's not inducing whiffs now, I don't know if that's because the velo isn't fully there and he needs the velo to get more spin to induce the whiffs or whatever, I don't know. But I'm more concerned about the not missing bats at this
Speaker 1 00:25:55 Point. Yeah. When you look and especially last year nearly a 37 per or 37% o swing rate, but a sub 10 swinging strike rate want to see him. Cause like you said, you know, closers, they come on with guise in base. It could be runner on third with one out that ground out. That's cool. Guess what? That run's still scoring right? Most likely. You know, so that's gonna affect the numbers a little bit. But also in that game where we last saw Fluro, we did see a particular Washington South Paul that could be interesting this year, health willing. Um, but Mackenzie Gore, unlike everybody we've talked about here, most of his velo was up, change up was up nearly three miles an hour. Fastball was within a half a mile an hour even though it was slightly down. But he did post a 20% whiff rate on each of his four pitches. So Magor is still gonna be relatively cheaper in drafts just kind of of given the history and everything like that. But this first start's gotta give people some optimism for what could be in 2023, right? Even if it's a subpar offense backing him.
Speaker 2 00:26:51 Yes. Um, firstly I would say if anybody on this list, he's has the most rest of anybody cuz he was also injured and was shut down after the, the trade to wash. I think he made what one appearance for Washington, if I'm, if I remember correctly. And then we shut down. Um,
Speaker 2 00:27:12 So he's had a good extra couple of months of rest, which he needed cuz there was o elbow concern there. Um, but yeah, it is in general, I think part of the reason why he struggled a bit last year was the velo wasn't staying right. He would, some starts, he would've great velo and then he would drop cuz he's a young guy. Stamina and keeping velo consistent is tough for a young pitchers. So I am intrigued to see that. I would like to see Josiah, Josiah gray's, uh, fastball proof cuz that's been his absolute weakest pitch. Um, and has made him a sitting duck out there. Um, but in general, I'm, I'm intrigued by what I see from Mackenzie Gore. Also, by the way, full disclosure said by a guy who has kept him in two leagues this year. One is a dynasty league and one is a keeper league with prospects that I had to pay for Mackenzie Gore this year.
Speaker 2 00:28:16 Cuz due to weird rules, I actually wound up having to use Mackenzie Gore to cover an open spot in my roster. He pitched a inning in a third, then got hit and then didn't pitch again. So I didn't get anything out of him <laugh> for, for, for last year and I had to pay for him. But, um, so yes, I am intrigued as an ads fan and as a guy who kept him, but also just as a baseball fan, it's good to see Mackenzie Gore getting back to what made him really, really popular coming out of high school, um, when the Padres took him.
Speaker 1 00:28:52 Yep. Yep. I I like gore. And this is some again, plays into your narrative if you want gor to be good, you're buying into this. Exactly. Um, that's what it comes down to. But last one I got here, um, Zack Gallen fastball was down two miles an hour, cut her down about a mile and a half, uh, per hour and change up was down three. Uh, look at his year minus average it was, or his year was 94.1 and then yesterday was only at 92 with a low of 88. He didn't even max out at what he averaged with his four seam fastball last year. Now to his credit, this was his first start, first start of the spring. Yes. Um, you know, I think as the farther you go along into spring with each passing start, the velo questions come into it. Um, first opening start though, for gallon, what is the level of concern compared to like Manoa
Speaker 2 00:29:42 Relatively the same. Like it's Galland's first start. He's a guy who's had plenty of history of injuries and not being able to stay on the mound. Um, what he did last year gave us a peek into what he could be. And by the way, can we give props to the Diamondbacks and Marlins from making that prospect for prospect trade? That seems to have worked out well for both teams. Like a couple years ago they made the trade deadline deal that was prospect for prospect and a lot of people were like, why are you just swapping prospects? That doesn't seem like usually if you're, you're trading a prospect, you're getting a big league guy, right? Cause the deal was Jazz Chisholm went from the Diamondbacks to the Marlins and the Marlins gave up Z Gallen to go to the Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm. That deal seems to have worked out very nicely for both teams and they both got what they needed.
Speaker 2 00:30:38 Miami still has pitching depth. The Diamondbacks needed it. The Marlins didn't have a middle infielder or freak athlete. Now they have one and the diamond back still have three ridiculously good outfield prospects and Kato Marte to play in the middle. So props to those two who are, uh, making that deal. But I, I, again, I'm not that concerned with Zach Allen. It's his first start. It'll be all right. By the way, we have a quote from Carlos Rodan here. I don't know if it changes your opinion. This came out, this is being tweeted out by Brian Holk, uh, or Hawk, I'm pretty sure it's Holk. Um, yeah cuz his, he says in his bio his name rhymes with Koch. That's convenient. Um, he's the Yankee, he's, uh, beat writer. But uh, the quote from Carlos Rodan is quote, I'm not here to pitch until the all-star break. I'm here to pitch well into October. If this was down the stretch. Yeah, I would be going for sure if this is October 5th or the A L D S I'm taking the ball.
Speaker 1 00:31:43 So we'll see him in May.
Speaker 2 00:31:45 Yes,
Speaker 1 00:31:45 That's what I'm hearing,
Speaker 2 00:31:46 Yeah. Is that it's precautionary so it doesn't get worse and that he can then pitch in. But if need be, he'd go out there and wouldn't have a problem.
Speaker 1 00:32:00 Okay, well we'll see Carlos Rhode on in May. So adjust your, adjust your rankings accordingly. Um, yes, that's, that's what I gathered from that. So, you know, kind of along the lines of kind of pitch velocity that we see, and I wanna get your, take Matt on some early spring performances and whether you are buying or selling these early spring performances heading in to the 2023 season. So first and foremost, a guy, uh, I wrote up in, uh, our shared sleep article that you can get in the draft guide, which is of course a re so make sure you go get that. Um, and we'll talk about the cheat sheet a little bit later on. But the draft guide is free. Get that, go get your copy of the cheat sheet and everything like that. But a popular sleeper that I liked Eduardo Rodriguez, I didn't like the fences moving in a little bit in Detroit, but I believe, I think I wrote, he's got an optout after this year. So if you wanna play the contract year narrative you can with Rodriguez. And after last year he should be poised to bounce back and he has looked excellent this spring. So Matt, are you buying or selling Eduardo Rodriguez?
Speaker 2 00:33:01 Uh, I'm buying him actually. I know there's not really an offense there to back him up in Detroit, but to be perfectly honest, there's not an offense that scares me and basically the entire Al Central, um, I mean, you know, the, the Indians just kind of piecemeal things together, maybe though White Sox, but a bunch of other dudes can't seemingly stay healthy long enough to make an impression. So, um, I liked what he did down the stretch last year. I thought he was, I thought he was pretty good down the stretch. He's not an elite guy. He's not being drafted to be an elite guy. I think you could do worse for a mid-level fantasy starter than Eduardo Rodriguez,
Speaker 1 00:33:46 I think. Yeah, and I mean he's, he's super cheap. That's, I mean that's what makes him a sleeper, right? Cuz he is going late. There's upside. And I wanna, um, kind of talk about here, shameless plug I guess with the, the sleep article that I put. But I had basically said, I said Rodriguez can opt out of his deal, um, after 2023. So technically there is the contract year narrative, but in spring training we need to see a return to more levels with his velo and see if the complimentary offerings have more bite to them here this season. And when you look at his last start, you will see that the velo was slightly up. So again, we are playing that to our narrative. So I like that. And the whiffs were there to a certain extent. So gotta like the earliest returns for Redwater Rodriguez. And I mean, we're talking 10 strikeouts to one walk in eight and a third innings of work here in the spring, outside of the top 300 picks. You can't do much worse than that.
Speaker 2 00:34:39 Yeah, and by the way, for those of you that might be saying, well the pitch clock is in effect this year, so strikeouts might be up, it's not actually true. <laugh> uh, strikeout rates, uh, this spring are actually down, according to number this, that Jeff Passin, uh, tweeted. The, the strikeout rate is 23.1% so far this year is 23.9% last year. So still posting good strikeout numbers in an actually less favorable environment to strike guys out.
Speaker 1 00:35:11 Yep. And then teammate of edu Edward over here is Matt, Matthew Boyd coming on strong. Everyone's gonna talk about the seven strikeout performance he had against St. Louis. So now he's up to 11 strikeouts, one walk across five innings pitched, has allowed two home runs. Are you buying or selling Matthew Boyd?
Speaker 2 00:35:30 Uh, can I hold?
Speaker 1 00:35:35 Yes, you can hold.
Speaker 2 00:35:37 Like I wanna like him given the, the pedigree behind him. Um, but I feel like I need to see a l a little bit more. Like he was good down the stretch again, he's the, these are second half guys. They kind of got, you know, not paid attention to. But I, I wanna see a little bit more before I fully jump in on, on Boyd.
Speaker 1 00:36:03 What about in Boston with Tristan Kaas who's eight for 18, two home runs, six rbis only has four strikeouts through 18 at bats. Seems like he's locked into a regular role with Boston. So, um, maybe necessarily in terms of like buying or selling costs as a spring performance, but are you willing to move him up at all in your rankings with this hot start that he's had with the spring?
Speaker 2 00:36:26 Um, well let's see where, let's see. It's funny that you should ask cause I'm actually looking at my rankings right now because um, I have to update them based on the, uh, Carlos Ordon new. So right now I have Tristan Kaas, uh, sitting 21st in my fantasy in my first base rankings. Yeah, I'll probably move them up a few spots. Um, I'm still not totally convinced that the offense around him is that great in Boston. I'm also not a hundred percent convinced he's not getting anything but fastballs in spring training. Cuz that's why Jared Collinick looks frigging awesome is that he just crushes fastballs and can't hit anything else. Um,
Speaker 1 00:37:13 Well what was that a, that was a kind of a jab atlin there.
Speaker 2 00:37:18 Yeah,
Speaker 1 00:37:18 That was kind of un uncalled for
Speaker 2 00:37:21 Wh why, I mean he's having good numbers like everybody's falling in love with Kelin again. Okay. But if you look at the, like somebody tweeted out, hey, he got into a two straight count and waited for his pitch and then smoked it. Yeah. His pitch was a fastball dead middle. Like, like congratulations. If you're gonna make a major league grasser, you should be able to crush a fastball down the middle, unlike Josh Donaldson.
Speaker 1 00:37:43 So are you, are you rudely selling Lennic performance then so far this spring? You're selling
Speaker 2 00:37:48 It? I'm not sold on it. Uh, I have like basically an entire year of him sucking in the majors <laugh> and destroying triple A and so it's like, well are you actually facing high quality pitching or not? And are they actually like giving you tough pitches to hit or are you, have you made that big of an improvement? So I'm not sold on Cole Colonic yet. I'm getting there with Casa. I'm not ready to crown him a top ten first basement. Right. But like, maybe, I don't know, like right now, right now, 15 through 21 is Rizzo, Mount Castle, Toles, Cronin Worth, Jose Miranda, Luis Arise and Tristan Kaas.
Speaker 1 00:38:41 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:38:42 Are you convinced to take Casa over any one of those guys? Hmm. Maybe Miranda and Arise?
Speaker 1 00:38:50 Yeah. Yeah. I, I hard
Speaker 2 00:38:54 To beat Kron Wears multi.
Speaker 1 00:38:56 Yeah, that does help him.
Speaker 2 00:38:58 I mean same with Rise, but
Speaker 1 00:39:01 I would take him above a rise.
Speaker 2 00:39:02 There's no power with Arise. So Yeah,
Speaker 1 00:39:04 It's, it's a team build thing, right? Like at that point you're gonna almost have to, if you're waiting at first base, you're gonna take whatever you need. If you need more average, you go elsewhere. Right. You know, the pop you can go with Casa. What
Speaker 2 00:39:14 I'm not, I'm, I'm not saying he's ahead of like, I'd still take Mount Castle over him. I'd still take Toles over him.
Speaker 1 00:39:23 Would you take Josh Bell over him?
Speaker 2 00:39:26 Probably.
Speaker 1 00:39:26 I think I would too.
Speaker 2 00:39:28 And I have Bell 14th by the way. He's one spot ahead of Rizzo.
Speaker 1 00:39:33 Oh then yeah, you definitely like him but okay. Yeah, so we're definitely buying it like the, like the early returns there with him. Um, let me ask you this one in Cincinnati, will Benson, we're gonna talk about another Cincinnati guy a little bit that I'm gonna surprise you on even though you probably know who it is. But Benson's hitting an even 500 only problem is every single hit has been singles. So is it's
Speaker 2 00:39:54 Slugging matches, slugging
Speaker 1 00:39:57 Slugging match matches the, the average. Now he does have four stolen bases. If you look at roster resource, they don't have him breaking camp with the team, having him go to the minors. Is there any chance you think that he can force himself onto the roster? Cuz when you look, I mean they're outfield. It seems like they're gonna kind of platoon most of the outfield in that, you know, freely and Fri or tj, was it Friddle? I think it's Fried Fri Yeah, yeah. Fried's there. But then on the bench, like Chad Pinders gonna face lefties. We know that that's just going to happen and then I guess maybe they mix in Stewart Fairchild, but any chance that Benson can break camp with the team, you think with this performance? I mean with eight singles? Let me say that
Speaker 2 00:40:37 I don't know man. I, I don't know. I will say though, zips is apparently drinking the coffee cuz the zips projections are way higher on him than anybody else. Like Zips has 'em at 118 games played
Speaker 1 00:40:55 Woo
Speaker 2 00:40:57 Hitting 15 Homers 10 steals 66 runs, 58 rbi, which you would take right until you see his average of two 10.
Speaker 1 00:41:04 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:41:05 Which by the way is in line with basically every other system including the three 16 O B P and the 3 83 slugging. So not great. And everybody's got 'em for about a 30% K rate. So it's like an all or nothing approach with him it seems. And everybody else, by the way, has 'em with like five or fewer homers and steels and a smattering of other stats. So I don't know he'll get a shot at some point. I can't, like making contact is great, but I need more than just a singles hitter.
Speaker 1 00:41:40 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:41:41 Like you, you gotta prove to me you can drive a baseball
Speaker 1 00:41:45 And let me, since we're in Cincinnati, I I think I know at least one of them. Ellie De La Cruz is the big name, right?
Speaker 2 00:41:54 Yes.
Speaker 1 00:41:55 He's not breaking camp with the team. They're gonna preserve his service time. Right.
Speaker 2 00:41:59 I would presume so. I don't see why there's any re like I don't, I just don't see why there's any reason to bring him up to a team that's clearly not going to, I mean they're fighting for fourth place in that division.
Speaker 1 00:42:13 Is the same gonna be said for Christian and Cario and Strand. Do you think he can break hand out the team or is he another service time preserver because he's looked darn good too.
Speaker 2 00:42:22 He's looked really good. Um,
Speaker 1 00:42:27 Also, I really like Spencer Steer, but I mean he's getting overplayed, overshadowed by all these guys and he's, it's not like he's been horrible.
Speaker 2 00:42:33 I mean since he's got a sneaky good farm system. Yeah. Like you just named three guys that could easily make the camp, like make the team out of camp but probably won't. Like Spencer Steer might, he's got about the best chance. Um, I'm not sure that Christian in Cario Strand will, um, I think they're gonna let 'em simmer for a little bit. I really do. I think good days are ahead for you Cincinnati fans. It's just not today. I'm sorry.
Speaker 1 00:43:07 Yeah, it's common, but
Speaker 2 00:43:10 Like yeah, I like I think Spencer Steers probably they're starting third basement to start the year.
Speaker 1 00:43:15 I do too. I mean, I think, I think it's rush resources too. So I don't think we're reinventing the wheel there.
Speaker 2 00:43:21 No, but I mean I I would've been drafting 'em that way starting in like February, right? Like I just don't know that you can make a reasonable ca like so here's the, here's the question. You're playing Eli de la Cruz in the outfield, right? Cuz you're not, you, you had to move him off of where you drafted him. Like you're not gonna play in a third base cuz you've got Spencer steer there. He's gonna get first crack at it shortstop. I mean I guess you could play him in shortstop over Kevin Newman, but like there's no, there's nobody forcing your hand at this because you're not competing for anything and adding Eli De La Cruz to your roster isn't the last piece you need. Right? Um, you're not moving de la Cruz to the outfield. So I think those guys might be up mid-season, but I don't think the breaking camp.
Speaker 1 00:44:25 Yep. I think, I think you're right there. And the last one I got for you here, had to look up the pronunciation for this one, but Brandon fought in Arizona has looked pretty good this spring. You know, we're looking here five innings with a six to two strikeout to walk ratio. Only allowed two hits. He's looked quite good. The one thing that intrigued on him, so I'm, I won't bury the lead here. I'm buying the spring. Do I know if you'll break the rotation with the team? I'm not entirely sure, but one thing that does intrigue me is once he gets the call, I know minor league ins aren't quite the same as major league innings, but in 2021 he logged 131 innings and then last year he logged 167 total innings. So I think when he gets the call, if he, even if he doesn't, if it's not breaking camp with the team, there's not gonna be an innings limit on him. Like he just threw 167 innings last year. He should be good to go with 61 of them coming in. AAA 105 at aa. So if he does break camp with the team, I'm very, very intrigued and if even if he doesn't, he's a guy I'm putting on my watch list waiting for him to get the call. So what, what do you think about his, his uh, early spring returns?
Speaker 2 00:45:32 I think they've been phenomenal. Um, I would say that he's talked himself into being probably the second best arm in the Diamondback system behind Ryan Nelson. Um, I've previously had Blake Walton ahead of him, but I don't anymore. Um, does he get a shot in the opening day rotation? Maybe. Maybe. I'm not a hundred percent sold on Ryan Nelson holding down that spot.
Speaker 1 00:46:08 Um, he had a rough outing too.
Speaker 2 00:46:09 He did. I think he might be better suited for a high leverage bullpen cuz it's not like they don't have enough dudes who could close games there in <laugh> in Arizona. Uh, they got about four or five guys that could possibly get you saves in that bullpen.
Speaker 1 00:46:25 Well it's like, it's like with college football, it, you know, if you have two quarterbacks, how many quarterbacks do you actually have? Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:46:30 Exactly. Um, but by the way, here's a trivia question for you. I'm gonna read off the names of the projected starting five for the, uh, for the Diamondbacks. Okay. I don't you to tell me who the oldest pitcher in this rotation is. Okay? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. You have Zach Gallen, Merrill Kelly, mad Bum, Zach Davies and Ryan Nelson.
Speaker 1 00:46:55 Well, the safe, I mean the, my first thought, the, the way you word it makes me think my thirst, my first thought is bumgarner. But the way you word it makes me think it's not bumgarner.
Speaker 2 00:47:07 It's not bumgarner.
Speaker 1 00:47:09 Uh, that would, I think, is it, what's Davis? It's Davies or Kelly?
Speaker 2 00:47:18 Zach Davies is three years, three and a half years younger than Matt.
Speaker 1 00:47:23 So it is Merrill Kelly then
Speaker 2 00:47:24 Merrill Kelly is 34 and a half mad bu is 33 and a half.
Speaker 1 00:47:28 Wow.
Speaker 2 00:47:30 That's like <laugh>.
Speaker 1 00:47:34 That's insane.
Speaker 2 00:47:35 And Zach Davies is still only 30, which is <laugh>. Like how can Mad Mama and Zach Davies both still be only 33 and 30? Yeah. It, yeah, just, just one of those things that pops up when you're, when you're uh, studying Yeah. Things like this. Just a weird, like, I'm not sure anybody would've guessed Meryl Kelly <laugh>.
Speaker 1 00:47:58 I I wouldn't have, like I said, I, my fir first thought me, if I had to put money I was gonna be bumgarner that was mad bum. That would've been who I would've thought. But
Speaker 2 00:48:05 Yeah,
Speaker 1 00:48:06 That's a good one. I like that one. I'm gonna, I'm gonna use that at a next trivia night where I come up with questions and see if, if everyone's gonna say Bumgarner, but I like that. But, um,
Speaker 2 00:48:14 I mean, did he's get in the league for like 87 years?
Speaker 1 00:48:18 <laugh>? That's that is very true. He sure has. Um, but that is all the time that we're gonna have here. Don't wanna, you know, go over over too much as we already are. Cause I of course lost track of time again as I seem to do in these episodes. But so much stuff is happening here in spring training. We gotta talk about it. So of course, give me a follow on Twitter at Colby Comedy. Give Matt a follow on Twitter at the sales man. Head over to www.fantasyalarm.com and get your free copy of the draft guide. And if you have a draft that is coming up or is in the even coming weeks or just the next couple of days, make sure you download the cheat sheet. It is the main resource that you will need to crush your drafts and get all the good players that will set your team up for success for a title.
Speaker 1 00:48:59 But of course there's in-season Management that has to be done, that is 95% of the work. So this will at least give you off to a good start. So once again, fantasy alarm.com for the cheat sheet and your free fantasy baseball draft guide. So give Matt a follow on Twitter, give me a follow on Twitter. And I don't believe Matt will be here next week. So you're gonna have a two week break. Well, yeah, about two week break from Mattis. He'll miss the next week. So next week's episode will be with me and most likely James Grande. So we will see you next week for the newest edition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
